Member Info for HarChris

For me a good CEO foresees problems before they arise or has an instinct that proves to be right with hindsight more often than not but let's agree to disagree for now, I'm done with arguing!... At least we kept our debate respectful Saluc :)

Hopefully Shishir starts proving all my criticisms wrong in the weeks and months ahead.

Yeah as things stand we are likely to see revenue for Argo halve since the last full month pre halving - $7m to $3.5m. Coins mined equivalent will be more like 45% down but the lower BTC price since those ATHs of March cancel that out.

Since March you have fees up, difficulty up, BTC down

I am saying they should have raised what they needed at the time if $1m wasn't enough.

Time and time again Shishir's belief hasn't matched his ability so what happens is he aims to keep dilution low thinking that the share price will be much higher in 'x months' or whatever but it never is because progress on the ground isn't being seen.

If execution had been better than his strategy would have worked a treat but execution has been poor hence the position we find ourselves in, where even a £200k cln coupon can't be sorted with cash nor is anyone able to be paid without issuing shares.

Just so you're aware i'm in no way part of the Free Tirupati group. I've only ever spoken to one person associated with that group who tried to get me on board but I said no.

Until very recently I had no interest in seeing Shishir removed but it gets to the point where you can't just accept the same thing to continue indefinitely and that's why I am where I am now, really only in the past week. That's why I say come on and deliver on some of these promises and prove me wrong.

Craig was parachuted in to rescue BMN before it was too late but has been dealt far too many blows that are beyond any person's control since.

He started with V just about high enough to enact a credible strategy and raise the necessary funding but ever since it has crashed. On top of the pressure that the falling V price will have caused SPR then failed to provide the $12.5m when it was needed causing an immediate cash crisis long before it otherwise would have come about and significantly affecting production and capex strategy through q1. Acacia then goes on to pull its $3.5m funding (likely because of the knock on effects described above) and we get to where we are with none of the plan being able to be enacted and another cash crisis.

Considering the position BMN were in when he took on his role (cash $3.7m, debt $94.4m, V $30/kgV) the deal with SPR and completion of Orion CLN funding and strategy were sound as far as i'm concerned - the difficulties since, one on top of the other, would be hard for any person to overcome.

Not true, everything I wrote before was valid as of the time.

Because (it now seems) H2 was much poorer than they targeted after H1 funds have become extremely tight once again. But we also have to remember that they did a placing in Jan and only raised $1m, there was surely the option to raise more at that time instead of literally waiting for the Mad government to pay out that rebate.

It's amateur hour relying totally on a VAT rebate that is already months delayed - Shishir once again took a gamble that hasn't paid off due to a miscalculation in believing that it really was imminent. Is operational progress literally on hold until the cash is received? It would seem like it to me...

Yeah I accounted for that as you'll see in my post.

Even with that difficulty adjustment downwards it remains higher than it was on average through March plus BTC is slightly lower through May so far than it was in March - March saw btc ATHs don't forget.

My $3.5m figure wasn't plucked out of thin air albeit there's still all of May to go for the BTC price to rise.

***logged in on too many old laptops and phones haha

'Also if management who have had decades in the game are not “smart” enough to foresee future operational issues who will be?'

Experience and intelligence are not always positively correlated.

' I never previously expected much from this year so a poor set of results fits with what I would have expected given the stage the companies at.'

________________

But why? TGR announced they had reached 30ktpa capacity in February 2023 and announced their crazily ambitious 6100T-6500T first quarter target alongside ... yet missed it by an enormous 60%. Fine, it was assumed to be unattainable by the market so what did they promise next? "Expect to reach c50% capacity utilisation in the current quarter and c75% in Q3' and 'The Company remains focussed on reaching monthly production and sales minimum target of 2,000 tons and expects to achieve this important milestone in Q3'

Brilliant. They've learnt their lesson and set some conservative targets, onwards and upwards to a better and improving picture in Q2...

Oops, production comes in even lower at 2100T, that's 700Tpm and barely 30% of capacity. They must have had some idea of this when the q1 update was released in August (already 5 weeks into the quarter) yet missed their forecast again by a country mile.

And off Shishir goes again this time targeting 7500T base case for H2, a downgrading but at least a step in the right direction... So are they on track for that? God knows, they haven't shared even a snippet of operational progress since October. Zilch. Nada

And a point to note... jumbo and large flake prices have held up very well, there's been virtually no change in basket price for TGR so for their current operations there's no bear market that's causing this - it's certainly the case for small flake producers that were expecting big rises this year and instead has seen their basket price collapse but TGR has been fortunate with their prices holding up well.

Micoley as things stand we are actually talking a full 50% drop in revenue - Corz has been a very useful barometer and they've dropped from an average of 30BTC mined per day to about 14.2BTC over the past week.

As things stand with BTC back at $60k Argo will post ~$3.5m revs in May which is exactly 50% of the last full month before halving ($7m revs March)

It’s nonsense, for a couple of days following the halving the number of coins minted barely changed but from about the 25th April that shifted to a straight halving.

The latest difficulty adjustment downwards will boost production numbers slightly but we’re still talking close to 50% of what was being mined in mid April.

I think I speak for all holders when I say it’s great to have you posting on here Poidster as someone with experience in the field.

Hope you’re doing well

Will do Popeye, thanks.

As for E-therapeutics all I know is that that a single investor owned 30% and an institution another so just those two parties together controlled 60% of the company. Usually when public companies are taken private by the board the BOD already owns a large percentage of the shares to begin with.

Who do you think would take GDR private? The current BOD? They don't own any shares do they?

Coughing up £5m or so and then raising the necessary funding privately is no mean task unless any of the board members are multimillionaires, which they aren't as far as i'm aware?

The most likely situation is that funding talks have broken down and are now desperately on going at the eleventh hour.

He's been offering a personal guarantee against his own finances in order to raise debt so he's obviously wealthy - not that it appears to have been successful as of yet.

When I say that I'm judging him on performance (with strange responses from others saying they aren't) I'm not just talking about operational performance, I'm talking about following through on corporate and governance issues too.

The last update two months ago laid out positive plans once again and at the time what did I say? That all sounds good but sadly the market wants to see it before it believes it.

Well so far how are they are doing against those objectives? The 'imminent' $2m hasn't arrive, there's no word on the establishment of a working credit facility, nothing on the potential funding for expansion for the next 6kt module, CFO appointment is yet to be concluded, no new NEDs appointed (which would have taken pressure off Shishir).

Let's also remember that numerous times in 2023 Shishir spoke of corporate governance being one of his top priorities and yet here we are with a board consisting of himself, his daughter who's only work experience post-BSc is with her dad and Alastair, a 20-something year old who got fast tracked in six months to a board position.

Smyths I haven't needed to be here that long even to see what's going on. I had followed STX off and on since early 2022 and finally bought in in 2023 around, I think, the Q2 business update which seemed like they were back on track after years of failure to live up to potential.

There it was at 7p looking like a true turnaround stock available at a great price only to learn the hard way how much more disappointment and failure this board has in them.

I got out seconds after the market opened after that dreadful February update with an average selling price of 4.1p so could have been much worse. As I'm not so long in the tooth as others on here re STX I've followed since to see if, (Yes i'm mad!), there might once again be a potential opportunity down at these ridiculous lows but Greg so far appears more and more out of his depth and more and more deceptive and untrustworthy.

I'm interested to see how this all plays out but all I do know is it won't be the way Greg is currently signalling.

DrewStevo just so you know (as I was reading your posts) I’ve never implied that Hemant is secretly a part of this newly formed group or that he’s personally attempting to remove Shishir.

Just to clear it up from the info I have seen he has voiced his concerns about Shishir which appear to match / are similar to what this group thinks and stepped away as a NED for that reason but far from being devious or attempting to oust him etc he hasn’t turned against him publicly.

As far as I can tell Hemant’s a decent guy who just wants the best for the company as he’s joint owner of the concert party with Shishir.

So yeah sorry if my previous posts suggested otherwise, as far as I know he isn’t involved in this group but obviously is in communication with them as former NEDs

Saluc a genuine question, if you don't hold Shishir accountable for all these things what do you hold him accountable for? Only the positives, which I acknowledge too, especially in the first couple of years after listing.

The porr results so far this year have not been because of the weather, have not been because of a lack of tax rebate received, they've been because of other operational issues which him and his team failed to foresee, possibly because he's not involved and on-site enough. More recent numbers we don't have but if they are poor there will be some other excuse found or some other issue they hadn't pre-empted before.

I've followed the mining game long enough now to spot when there are issues out of a management team's control and issues because management are not smart enough and/or not quick thinking enough and/or not able to troubleshoot successfully.

Shishir strikes me as someone with many skills within the graphite sector but CEO of a listed company like this might be a level above his abilities.

'I believe judging Shishir on the next set of results to be ignorant.'

_______

Fine but that's really odd. Target for H2 is 7500T-10000T, in January it was reiterating that TGR have the resources to achieve 1500Tpm (i.e in that range), so why a year after installing 30kt capacity and with repeated claims that they can reach the above target with current resources (need capital to increase production to get to get close to 30ktpa production + build another 6ktpa capacity would you not judge the company on performance?

So you don't judge on share price, judging results is ignorant, what do you go by? Just his words?

Talking about warrants that have a strike price 65% higher than current market price is not going to put anyone off buying here.

It's the warrants well below market price that you want to avoid so bring up the warrants when arcm is at 4p :)