Member Info for HarChris

Greg had two choices the other day - be brutally honest about the chances of being cash positive by H2 2025 without further resources and see the share price implode / remain at 1p max or go with the narrative that yes they have enough capital to reach cash positivity by H2 2025 and hope the market buys it.

The latter is, technically, true. They do have enough but what wasn't shared was the monumental improvement that would need to be seen quarter on quarter from here to mid 2025 i both prescriptions written and net price. I think the chances are probably 1% but as long as it's feasible he has a get out clause by saying that was the hope but events haven't unfolded the way we hoped and so here's the placing - at some point later in 2024.

Yeah and due to a lack of proper explanation as to why direct costs to mine bitcoin in q1 jumped to $31k we can't even be sure if Argo would be generating much cash at $150k post halving!

After the Mirabel sale Argo were left with $12.4m cash end of March, my guess is from now that they are going to be losing $2m a month so that's six months of runway - placing Sept latest or lights out. And if a placing comes there is still the end of the hosting agreement a few months later.

Only BTC at $150k and the illusion that Argo are generating tons of cash and therefore a massive spike in SP and then a humongous raise off the back of that leaves Argo in operation this time next year - wildly unlikely.

Unsurprisingly high as shown by the Core Scientific daily numbers which spiked pre halving and stayed elevated til the last few days of April.

May's Coins minted will drop by ~45% as things stand (difficulty likely adjusted down next week) but revenue possibly more as bitcoin price has retraced - $3.4m revs as things stand, 55 coins mined.

The broker notes have Shield break even at about $90m revs. Forecast for 2024 was previously $62m revs which translates as ~330k prescriptions at ~$175 net price Rx ++ minimal royalty payments), to reach cash flow break even in 2025 without additional resources that'll need to be achieved at a minimum - are you confident of it?

Court is obviously more likely so I’ll have to go with that but the odds I give are two to one.

It's a tricky situation GDR find themselves in and they are not alone. From where I'm standing progress is without doubt being seen now but the sort of cash GDR were previously raising isn't feasible now with where the share price is without dilution to oblivion (£8m raised 2020, £7.1m raised in 2021 etc).

I notice the going concern statement proposes debt as an option but are GDR in anyway close to reaching cash generation, as if not it'll be hard to find willing debtors?

In all seriousness good luck. As someone confident of what's going on here I hate seeing Greg lie through his teeth like this once again but it is what it is, better and more meaningful activist fights to be had elsewhere.

Just be wary that's all that Greg has said the same things before and now the numbers simply don't add up - I watched the IMC hoping for an explanation but all they did was focus on Texas' lower than expected numbers but even with that coming back in line the totals for 2024 will not be enough and more funding will be needed.

Ha I don't short but i'm kicking myself for not buying the hopium at 1.3p like I said I very nearly did- I'd be selling now for a reasonably healthy profit!

The sp tends to creep up here when no one's paying attention and retrace once everyone's caught on.

A slow and steady move towards a quid in the run up to trial/settlement news I hope.

(i) it's a repeatedly used tactic

(ii) the numbers simply don't add up

Greg and Santosh Shanbhag have done all they can with the loan and change in covenants to keep Shield ticking over but there is absolutely no way this is getting them through to break even and the only way they can raise enough is by convincing you otherwise and raising off the back of that misunderstanding.

Because they will soon run out of the cash from the loan facility, which I suspect much of has already been drawn down to give that updated cash figure...

Once the real details are understood in black and white there will no longer be a chance to raise so have to do it whilst they can still parrot this cash flow positive by 2025 BS.

You’ll need to do your numbers again after that rns

Tbh clsk I only started my research again on Mara this morning and my immediate verdict was value now very much depend on BTC price due to halving and significant BTC in treasury, so not in a rush to buy with BTC having a wobble.

I know I might miss out altogether by being cautious but that’s life.

I’m holding out for sub $15, think there’s another dip down in this.

I must admit I was worried the SP would just keep going up and we'd never hear from you again PI100!

I assume no but there's a lot of info out there if you look for it online https://nairametrics.com/2020/10/14/fg-liberalizes-the-mining-sector-grants-5-years-tax-concession-to-miners/

March was the death knell for Argo when the SP couldn't even muster a move past 20p with BTC smashing through $70k and with it a new ATH at $73k. Without the feeling that Argo can go crazy there's no temptation to ignore logic and buy.

The $300m FCF is an effective way of highlighting a sort of worst case scenario here, albeit obviously true worst case scenario is gold crashing to $1500/oz, Nigerian militia seizing Segilola etc ha

There are very few scenarios that would leave investors, holding at today's $125m mcap valuation, out of pocket in three years time whereas the upside could comfortably be 100% ($250m mcap) and if POG really takes off, 3-4 years mle at Segilola, Douta developed, Lithium developed the upside isn't calculable even.

Nah there's money to be made in North American miners but perhaps a cooling off period is needed first - the halving has come and gone and BTC is sub $60k which arguably makes a few of them overvalued.

I'm certainly going to take a good hard look at Mara for example when it settles in the coming weeks.

But going to court had two major implications previously - one was the time lost, uncertainty, share price depreciation and cost etc that it would cause for 3 years and the other was the risk that you just mentioned.

The first one doesn't really apply now so to compromise at this late stage, besides the settlement being *way* in our favour, doesn't seem like a rational strategy.