Member Info for HarChris

Optrade last post from me as I don't want to upset you.

...But that couldn't be further from the truth. They did have sales momentum but it's totally lost. QoQ growth rate has dropped from 60% to 1% - that wouldn't be so bad if they were maturing at over 100k prescriptions per quarter but they are still only where they were meant to be last year before the full sales team had settled in.

The second key metric, net selling price, has also gone backwards this quarter too.

The only thing going for you is that the value is low enough already that it might not crash further, but there are now serious question marks around this management team and tbh, possibly even the product which is failing to gain traction.

GL, I hope this works out for you!

I got an email to say the hearing is taking place in person and there is no remote access.

Anywhere near Fetter Lane in London by any chance this morning?!

Are you joking?

Business Update and Audited Results April 2023 - Funded to support operations through to cash flow break-even by end of 2024

28th September 2023 - cash raise and new $20m debt facility

They are funded to cash flow break even if they totally reverse the course they are on, but that's completely unrealistic now. How they will go from 1% QoQ growth to nigh on 50% needs to be clearly explained by Greg later or it's simply bollo***

27750 was the number of prescriptions they reported in Q3 of last year, before then downgrading it in q4.

So Shield are now at the level we all thought they were six months ago. Really poor. Was looking to buy in if there were any green shoots but it's tough to see where they go from here?

If anyone is able to follow along and share some info on here form 9.30 that would be appreciated big time!

EV includes debt, Shield only have cash because they keep taking on more debt. The EV isn't increasing.

You might just be being naive but Shield is 'not doing a lot better than many other Aim companies' , at this stage revenue is irrelevant, they were on a path to profitability and now they are MILES away - they are burning cash like nobody's business and have a mcap of £10m to raise against vs a £100m mcap last year.

The debt facility gives them another quarter to show some significant improvement but if nothing seen them it must surely be curtains.

The real increase is 1% on Q4 2023 - for a company supposedly targeting 330k prescriptions in 2024 28.8k is a rubbish number and provides conclusive proof that growth is no longer on track.

''Need to see 45k scripts for 1st qtr 24 to get this back on track along with a reduction in monthly costs.

It will be tight.''

_______________

Traxpern, happy with 28800? Hardman research had 65k scripts at this stage.

'Who wants to take over a heavily loss making business? It's plausible that will come together to find a solution that benefits everyone - at a price.'

If BMN go into administration asset strippers go in and sell Vametco, Vanchem, Cellcube etc either to Orion, who own the majority of BMN's debt or to another entity/entities with proceeds largely going to Orion (other smaller debtors too).

Orion doesn't lose out, besides the 5% holding they have. And the new owners would be getting the assets at such a knock down price that it would be worth mothballing until the downturn in V is finally over.

This is what Craig alluded to earlier and is why it must be so hard to find willing funders now with BMN on the brink.

Let's just say Hemant's 'focus on his other business interests' is very similar to Murat's 'personal reasons', I wouldn't share anything more on here but happy to on a different medium like Telegram...

If I give you a timeline of the directorate changes RNS' from 2023 onwards you might notice a pattern:

1st June 2023 - Douglas Wright resigns, Isabel de Salis appointed.

19th July 2023 - Christian Dennis resigns

3rd Oct 2023 - Rajesh Keda resigns

25th Oct 2023 - Murat Erden appointed

5th Feb 2024 - Hemant Poddar resigns

29th Feb 2024 - Isabel De Salis resigns

7th March 2024 - Murat Erden resigns

It's been a long time since a director lasted as long as a year.

I sold the last lot I was holding in February when the rally fizzled out but this isn't about that. I simply continue to be amazed by the valuation and follow with such intrigue, especially as I'm invested in gold miners lower valued than Argo with no debt and on for posting $25m profit before tax this year!

I agree but I sense the price action will be telling.

I'm expecting an rns Wednesday or Thursday.

'But we continue to look to grow further in a financially prudent manner. Our vision is to become the premier, Brazil focussed, gold growth company generating superior returns to our investors. In parallel with organic opportunities, we continue to explore appropriate corporate opportunities to accelerate our objective of transitioning to a 200,000 ounce per year producer over the next few years.'

The next few years?! I think that's pushing it but get to even 100,000 ounces within the next few years with minimal additional debt/equity and show a clear path to 200,000 ounces and surely SRB would be far closer to £500m mcap than today's £50m.

If Argo's direct costs remain at the same level through Q2 there is a very real chance they won't even see any gross margin this quarter - i'm not sure they've ever been in a position where electricity and hosting costs add up to more than they are bringing in in revenue.

There are 775M shares in issue so 3.5M is only 0.4% of the company, wouldn't require a TR1 unless someone was crossing a threshold at or above 3%.

I've decided to stay on the sidelines but tomorrow will indeed be interesting.

Pre trial review tomorrow:

'The court has listed the Pre-Trial Review to be heard on 30 April 2024. This is part of the normal litigation process and is predominantly concerned with administrative preparations for trial.

The court will also hear an application by the DHSC for summary judgment in relation to one aspect of its claim, as part of which the DHSC is seeking judgment to be entered for the full value of its claim. Having taken legal advice, the Company considers this application to be very weak with low prospects of success, and is confident that the court will dismiss the application. It is not known when the court will give judgment in relation to the application. It may be during or at the end of the Pre-Trial Review, or a short time thereafter.

The Company will announce the outcome of the application in due course.'

From what I know they have been trying to enact change behind the scenes for a long while now, including a fellow member of the Poddar family (you can guess who I'm talking about) but Shishir wasn't budging or engaging.

I guess this is taking the attempt to force some sort of reaction from Shishir to the next stage.

Here's a few more days to see clearly that a drop of 50% is happening now that fees have reduced and difficulty has adjusted upwards.

April 12th: 32.3

April 13th: 30.4

April 14th: 29.5

April 15th: 31.7

April 16th: 29.1

April 17th: 29.7

April 18th: 30.1

April 19th: 30.8

April 20th: 57.3

April 21st: 25.2

April 22nd: 21.2

April 23rd: 25.2

April 24th: 19.6

April 25th: 16.2

April 26th: 16.6

April 27th: 15.7

April 28th: 15.5

Argo will start May mining 1.5 coins a day.

The markets turned very quickly from 2021 onwards. Growth as measured by the sort of things you allude to (increased overall operational size) was rewarded in share price appreciation but almost overnight liquidity fell off a cliff and any small cap needing funding or even worse, indebted, collapsed. For every ex YG holder angry at Lyn there's two hundred more with the same frustrations over their own particular AIM small cap ceo but the common denominator is the broader market rather than all these CEOs and management teams becoming useless overnight.

This is all about his ability given the circumstances he is now under. It's all about whether or not he's capable to get the most out of YG with ample cash at his disposal, executing M&A successfully and integrating all of the parts smoothly and synergistically into the wider group.

If we're honest none of us have any idea how successful he is likely to be but what we can say is that the circumstances that led YG to collapse in value don't apply here and so there isn't much read across to be had.