Member Info for HarChris

'The amount he cried last week because I said SRB would test 55p was unreal.'

You're an odd one. (i) I didn't get wound up because you just came on the SRB board spamming with no interest in debating and (ii) I was right that it wouldn't pull back that far.

Anyway I won't reply to you again however abusive and slanderous your posts as it's tedious for the rest.

Reading through your post again essentially what you're doing is assuming a fairly optimistic base case that involves POG remaining this high and Coris being supportive regarding the debt maturity that's looming as with your figures they still aren't going to meet the short term liabilities they have this year. Certainly could work out but the risk is much bigger than you want to believe.

HUM keep repeating that Coris is supportive but they are a bank not a charity, they will want their pound of flesh in return for this support.

The_shareminator that's a really detailed post thank you. A great starting point although from almost line 1 you got something wrong (Yanfolila guidance has been lowered to 75k-85k hence my 75k remark). Still, I'll start from the basis that the rest of the post is more or less accurate as a jumping off point for my own research. Thanks again.

If you think falling short of production target by possibly as much as 40% is going to have no knock on effects for an indebted miner such as HUM then fine. You might be right but once you're running the risk of failing to meet debt obligations things turn sour pretty quickly.

Will continue to watch with interest and hope for your sake Dan Betts starts to follow through on his ambitious plans for once and HUM holders get some respite.

No so let me at least expand on that earlier comment.

December placing at 11.25p. The placing rns included this: 'The Company is on track to produce c.200,000 oz in FY-2024' which (from a later update) we know would be ~80k Yanfolila and 120k Kou. There's also plenty of talk of deleveraging the balance sheet as a priority hence my focus on that metric earlier.

Now we know that first quarter production was 22867 oz. Let's assume Yanfolila hits 75k target what do you expect from Kou this year? We don't know obviously but is 100k possible now? No, 60k? Perhaps. Conservatively let's say 50k - that would mean HUM produces 75k oz less than they set out to just a few short months ago so let's assume expectation were for gold to average $2100 this year back then - that's over $150m lost revenue vs prior expectations. Gold price would need to go way, way higher to counteract the lost revenue from this mess with Corica.

So is this a steal vs the 11.26p placing price in December? No i don't think so, not when the plan was to pay off $77m debt this year which looks impossible now given the situation and tight cash constraints.

Will HUM become a 200k oz producer at some point in the future? Sure they obviously still can but at what price in the meantime? How many more shares will there be in issue at that point and what will the debt be? You might even find that it happens at the end of the gold bull market and all the cash generated simply goes to slowly paying down the debt for years to come.

No one likes to hear it but unless the situation is sorted very quickly at Kou the next lot of financing is going to be a lot uglier than the last.

Difficulty has actually increased around 10% vs the average in q1 too so I suspect direct cost per Bitcoin now is about $34000 x2 for the halving.

I watched the entire presentation and q&a for a change and it’s clear there’s absolutely no strategy to get themselves out of this situation besides putting on a brave face and remaining publicly upbeat in the hope that a BTC price surge translates into an Argo sp price surge and enough interest to place again. Personally Thomas will be focused on reaching this November vesting date to receive his ~1m ADR shares and then in an ideal world the next November and the one after too.

Those are basically the questions I put forward, alongside a’at roughly what BTC price, difficulty where it is now, would Argo be back generating cash?’ but they were ignored for silly questions like ‘is Argo thinking about paying a dividend this year?’

Well historically speaking drops like this at STX are because information has leaked and those in the know don't like it.

As always you like to twist the truth to point score.

In Q1 2023 with V above $40/kgV the outlook was very bright. As V tanked and the true state of operations under Fortune was revealed I, consistent with that, become less positive. I have never argued this is a brilliant investment since, despite holding on to many of my shares which are now on a 90% loss.

This is AIM, something said now won't necessarily hold true in another eighteen months time.

Are you listening to the q&a? Are you Jason, Hexam? Ha

The $31k direct costs from Q1 does not include depreciation so let's move on from this idea that they are still generating cash - that's simply not the case!

Hexam this answered my question on upcoming debts, short term debt is therefore above the cash position and as they will likely be burning cash rather than generating now, even if modestly, it means that cash needs to be raised at some point just to pay those debts and not even for growth.

Albeit the majority maturing in June I assume which is still a long way off.

'They have a clear plan and are clearly waiting for something big , hence have not done a raise , when they could of at 9 p a couple of weeks ago'

Is that have you think raises work? Share price spikes one day and mgmt announce a placing at that price?

More likely mgmt held off raising because they thought the April 3rd news might free up the share price for a meaningful rally but it's not happened, hence now likely having to accept something around the current price.

It's very rare in situations like this that getting in before results is advantageous, or worth the risk.

I've been incredibly bearish since the last results and saw good reason for the slump to 1.5p but there's no doubt that sub 1p is pretty good punt money for a lowball TO in the 2s later this year.

This isn't just about whether or not BMN can survive but in what form that comes...The last time a cash call was signalled the share price was about 3p, this time around it's 0.6p so it's obviously going to come at a heavy price.

We don't know what the future holds for the vanadium price but we can definitely say that it's not going to come to our rescue in the very short term, which is what is most needed at the moment.

Yeah. To the outsider who doesn't follow Argo too closely monthly revenues will look something like this, unless BTC rallies in the immediate term:

Jan - $5.3m

Feb - $4.5m

March - $7m

April - ~$5.6m?

May - $3.8m?

That March figure is what was needed month on month here.

Zero. It's not in the interest of the new directors to redistribute cash to shareholders as they don't own shares until December 2026.

They might distribute a small 10p dividend as a gesture but much above that isn't happening.

Exactly. The question is will Chippas signal a new direction and if so will the market buy it? Only a SP spike and a massive raise off the back of it keeps Argo alive into 2025

As I’ve said before if Argo was valued at £15m now they’d be a punt to be had on survival but at £70m the potential upside isn’t worth the more likely outcome of failure.

My post was more of a joke rather than 'rampy about AA being bought out' - lighten up.

Maybe they want to make a move on Anglo early because they know they've formed a partnership in Zambia that's going to be worth multiple billions in the not too distant future...

One can hope!