Member Info for HarChris

True, August and November are what we're looking at for the hard numbers but the ops update in the next week or so should be enough to get more eyes in this direction - especially as there's a lot of news signposted for H2 this year.

Lithium drilling results in the 'next few weeks', Segilola drilling results, commencement of underground drilling programme, updated MRE at Douta and then PFS.

This from March 3rd: Discussions that are well-progressed to this end are:

' Recent meetings with the Madagascar Government for the release of VAT refunds of c. $2m have further added confidence that these will be returned to the Company imminently;'

'Establishment of working capital facilities from the Company's bankers in Madagascar being progressed supported by a personal guarantee being agreed to be provided from the Executive Chairman'

'Due diligence work continues with DFI's for funding the expansion of the Company's effective production at Madagascar first to 36,000tpa in the near term and then to 54,000tpa thereafter through the addition of a new 18,000 tpa module.'

____________________________-

Over four months now with barely a penny in the bank and still none of the above have been achieved yet some on here adamantly argue that TGR remains on a strong growth trajectory.

Well it wouldn’t have been possible to press on with an all VRFB long duration policy, that would require tens of GWhs of batteries per year straight off the bat - there wouldn’t be the supply of vanadium for that.

A gradual phase out of lithium or a tightening of restrictions re location, size etc would have the effect of boosting Vrfbs year on year and allowing supply to keep pace somewhat - a more realistic direction.

Faint signs that reality is starting to kick in here but nothing like a capitulation yet.

Will be an interesting six weeks or so ahead. Behinds the scenes Chippas must be putting out the feelers for a placing at the very least with the cash runway rapidly narrowing - does he hold off and cross his fingers on a BTC-price rise coming first or bite the bullet and move now?

Today's current mcap would be about right if there was no MLE at Segilola to come, no potential new mine in Douta and little to no other prospects such as the lithium in Nigeria (and any new opportunity that could arise with hundreds of millions of cash in the bank).

$125m mcap might just about be fair considering that the $300m forecasted FCF to come from initial Segilola mine life isn't guaranteed yet, POG might collapse next year, unforeseen operational issues could occur... but when you factor in all of the above the disconnect is frankly off the scale.

Large and jumbo flake graphite prices have been fairly stable for a long while now and if anything have risen over the past six months - the problem for TGR is lack of production since July and as far as we know the current run rate is at best on a par with H2, which means £3.5m revs per year, max.

Having been producing for well over three years now that's disappointing.

Whilst markets should be forward looking for unloved shares like THX they often aren't... but soon the sheer numbers being posted will be too hard to ignore. Let's take net debt/cash for example to see just how big of a step change we're about to see.

March 31st 2023 - net debt $25m

March 31st 2024 - net debt $14.3m

June 30th 2024 - net cash positive? $4m?

Sept 30th 2024 - net cash $28m?

How can that sort of step change be ignored if POG is still as buoyant as it is now? And the above is conservative, it's less than is predicted by Cannacord broker notes which use much lower POG than we're seeing and assumes a vastly different USD:Naira e.rate.

As BBN has pointed out below right now we're seeing $2.5m cash flows per WEEK, that's $30m+ a quarter if margins remain throughout 2024.

And therein lies the reasoning for my below post, that the share price is in limbo waiting for news on the cashew front before investors buy in en masse or dump for whatever price they can get.

You're right slift, as a ~€6.5m ebitda business there's a lot of upside to be had but the market is well past the point of simply trusting the board to deliver it successfully and so we need more evidence of it being achieved before the buying kicks in.

I take comfort in the recent director buys and with over 23% ownership of the company they are certainly incentivised to get this right... but incentive doesn't equal competence so it's still a bit of a binary bet here.

Gotcha.

As for pivoting it’s surely too late for that. They are very close to being out of cash with a huge monthly cash burn now - I don’t believe any instis that they would need to attract in order to raise (on the pretext of the pivot) would be gullible enough to buy into it.

Why is it for certain posters the ‘market’s always right’ mantra only works one way?

CLSK what happens end of December if Argo is still in business? Is it simply a case of renegotiating a new hosting agreement or switch the machines off?

This level repeatedly tested for months now without breaking below, even with each slightly underwhelming update.

Investors holding firm now and waiting for the rest of 2024 to play out to see what is delivered on the cashew front - very close to a major move here either way. Positive and 3p should come quickly into view, bad and that debt swallows DKL and sp goes far below a penny.

Maybe I'll be right and that large buy will turn out to be a director purchase and then the news tap will start to flow.

One can hope!

Sorry I should clarify - that's an estimation below.

$12.4m cash end of March but paid down ~$7m of debt and will be burning at least $1.25m a month now (April slightly less) which brings us to ~$2.5m cash.

$2.5m cash remaining with £1m/ $1.25m cash burn per month is a conservative estimation.

They are very close to the edge now.

Yeah does seem like a number of factors in play that are uniquely hitting bitcoin - alongside the spx and ndx you also have gold just a few percent off all time highs too.

I stand by my 'must see improvement here by interims' or share price implosion to just a few pence - that's about seven weeks and counting now.

Just popped on here to say similar, for Stokey's post on UKEF yesterday at 17:26.

Great summary.

Well that was brief eh?! A lot going on at Argo behind the scenes... not!

CLSK, at this rate we're going to see $50k BTC before your long anticipated $100k!

TGR was the flavour of the day for the Mighty Morphin Ramping Rangers - will be interesting to see what happens with the SP over the next four or five trading days for a real feel for how the news today was digested.

If I got one call spot on it was this:

'Just a few posts Saluc to counter some of the opposite which was undoubtably going to be posted like 'Sovereign Wealth Fund!' and 'no placing!', the latter being palpably false. '

Half hour later ilovesushi posted:

''NO placing.

SOVERIGN WEALTH FUND INTEREST.''

:)