Member Info for HarChris

Also I know the h1 figures might seem low but I’m not sure why Segun is being given such a hard time - the execution, bringing the first mine online in Nigeria with output very close to mine plan is to be applauded and he deserves for his word to be respected.

He says production is running at 2000-2100 oz a week and has maintained guidance hence it’s still evidently achievable alongside gold all time highs

I personally think the market won’t care if the cash generated blows the doors off - at least the net effect will be positive.

Yes but as BBN has points out time and time again it risks losing sight of the undervaluation to begin with.

If sp had rallied to 25p off the back of this gold move the focus would understandably focus on near term production to ascertain what upside there was near term but with the share price actually down following such a move it seems counterproductive.

Management continue to maintain guidance but even if it’s missed by 10% the gold move more than makes up for it, especially as sales will peak this half year due to gold being drawn down from circuit.

The balance sheet will be in a better place come the end of the year than the broker forecasts despite the TP being 30p.

In very simple terms YoY POG has risen 25%, from ~$1960 to $2460, and the THX sp has fallen 31%. Even at just 90k oz that's $45m extra revenue now being crystallised into cold hard cash (with no tax to pay) not to mention the derisking this brings.

So to be 30% down sp-wise is frankly ludicrous.

I'm not sure it's clearly an error - they're probably just taking 191 as total liabilities (although not really relevant) and 91m as actual debt that needs refinancing.

It’s the unaudited interims next month so all the detail you’re craving will be in there - not long to wait for that now.

Q1 saw far lower gold price and gold was still being built up in circuit vs drawn down now - actual cash generation in q2 vs q1 will be light and day… and if POG remains this high it will rise even further in q3.

We’re close to that being revealed in black and white… first in next month’s financial results and then compounded three months later.

THX is now generating ~$2.5m cash every. single. week against a $125m mcap with only minor debt left on the books and yet the last few days people are instead arguing over definitions like gold poured vs production.

Those able to get in now at the same price as when gold was $2000/oz are going to be laughing all the way to the bank.

'But now, of course, that has all been turned on its head and we are now at “…..ongoing strategic discussions that the Company is currently undertaking. I look forward to providing updates as the transactions progress." A bit of déjà vu there is you don’t mind my saying.'

This^^^ but also the collapse in the lithium spod price over the past 12 months isn't helping sentiment alongsideand caused what is essentially a 50% share price fall year on year - spodumene threatening to go under $1000/t now when it was ~$3750/t this time last year and went as high as about $7750/t in late 2022/early 2023.

In terms of potential profit BMN may look the more appealing at this valuation vs IES but you have to remember that the former has over $100m debt even after a placing and selling its best asset whilst the latters’ debt is a big fat zero.

Apples and Oranges now and tough to know which one would return more from current levels.

There's still just enough time for a higher bitcoin price to be supportive of a company saving placing. It's got to happen in the coming months though.

In a way a big problem for us shareholders here is one counter to all the competitors - the company has no funding requirements and no need to tap shareholders for funds so there's no immediate benefit to keeping the market engaged. The likes of Lyn comes in and if anything is disincentived to hit the ground running until he starts accumulating and releases that news. And if shareholders are going to be called upon in the future it's not for a couple of years and so plenty of time for a better communication and plan to be in place by then to have the share price high enough to be supportive.

Testing everyone's patience though, no question.

Even at 46k oz h2 aisc will come in lower end so right now that's a $1300/oz margin and fcf of $60m, close to half today's mcap for h2 hence not far off a p/e of 1.

I'll stick with management's forecasts but even a sizeable miss against current gold price and there's significant upside to be had before we talk MLE and Douta.

Lithium drill results up next.

I went back and relistened and what he said was that they are producing on average 2000 to 2100 ounces per week at these gold prices (ie now) - the interview was a week or so ago. It’s from 4:58 : https://zakstraderscafe.com/interview-segun-lawson-president-ceo-thor-explorations/9708/

That’s not how mining works I’m afraid - when guidance is given for a year’s period it is not assumed that exactly 25% will be produced each quarter, it varies across the year due to many factors.

I’m using management guidance and statements, you’re using your own ridiculous calculations and guesses such as how many hours the mill operates per week lol

Exactly SS.

Now it might well turn out that THX miss that 95k production guidance but for it not to have been downgraded means Segun believes it is still achievable and that also corresponds with the up-to-date current output shared in the previous interview..

My $70m FCF for H2 is obviously on the more optimistic side but the fact it's realistic just goes to show how much upside there is to be had if POG does hold strong and this guidance is met.

Now £20m mcap with ~£5.5m as of end of May which is ~1 yr worth of cash burn and have yet to sell more than a handful of tests. Yes plenty of hype and promise around their two tests but a lot of risk still baked in.

Compare that to Novacyt that has similar potential with Ranger tech but far more of a cash runway and safety net sitton on at least three years cash and likely much more as cost savings continue and sales gain further traction - yet the difference in mcap is just £14m now.

A bit of hype here, some director buys, a solid trading update that shows sales pointing in the right direction and novacyt share price doubles and some immediately from this level.

You are quite evidently wrong.

Segun has said 2100-2200 oz now being produced a week = ~56000 oz in H2

Guidance has been maintained = min 54000 oz expected in H2

These two facts mean there is no chance that what you've just attempted to calculate is correct.

Solid progress being seen with that $300m FCF over next three years very much on. Cannaccord reiterated 30p target today.

At $125m mcap downside risk is low with plenty of blue sky upside with MLE later this year at Segilola and a positive PFS from Douta.

''HarChris, well, that "non-ramper" promised us between 85koz and 95koz . He gave us ~ 84.6koz. That is a ramper in my books (deliberate or not).''

I think most here would disagree that falling short of target by less than half a percent makes the CEO a ramper.

Anyway, missing a target and stating a fact (current weekly production at 2100-2200 ounces) are two different things - it appears evident that at least currently production is stepping up vs q1 and q2 and we're in for a record couple of quarters.

Segun is no ramper and he said, in early July, that production was at 2100-2200 ounces per week - so if that's the level reached at say the back end of Q2 heading into Q3 then it's likely we are going to see vastly improved production numbers in H2 alongside this higher gold price.