Member Info for HarChris

Your numbers assume gold nose-dives, mine simply assumes it averages the price it is now for the rest of the year.

It can also go higher.

Essentially THX are now guiding~55k oz for H2 at a $1250/oz margin - that's FCF for the second half of the year of just shy of $70m! For just H2.

Even if they miss it by 5 or 10% at current POG the numbers will be enormous.

They were never going to get this P3 over the line via traditional equity, the market cap had fallen too low so partnership was the only option.

It's a shame they haven't managed to secure one in time but those continuing to hold this as a private company could well still see a reasonable payday in the future.

Yes, very recent interview Segun said producing 2100 ounces a week now - through H2 that would be ~55k ounces and take full year to within guidance.

The weighting to H2 is ideal considering where gold price started the year and where it is now (and could go next).

As annoying as it is we just have to wait that bit longer for (i) financial results (ii) the cash to really start accumulating through 2024 and (iii) mine life extension later this year

It's all been building towards a stellar H2 so as long as POG remains buoyant this will come good... soon.

Lithium prices were over three times higher in mid 2023 when Thor first announced its lithium interests so for now I imagine it will remain a low priority ticket unless prices show a sustained recovery.

What matters is gold, gold, gold. Thor has been through its tough 2023 and built up 11000 ounces of gold in circuit at a time when gold prices were modest/low and now, at record gold highs, Thor's about to throw off record sales at record prices at record margins.

It really couldn't have worked out better than this.

''HarChris kindly estimated that potentially Andrada quarterly revenue could reach $5.2 mill, now AV has said recently Lithium will probably account for about 70% of Andrada's revenue in the future, you can quickly see how big these assets are worth.''

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That's not revenue per quarter I was calculating, that was profit!

Granted it's on the less conservative end of the spectrum but it's a fairly realistic scenario in twelve months time given successful expansion which is funded and progressing well. Althought at this tin price and the lower lithium prices we might end up seeing revenue split fairly evenly between the tin and lithium in a couple of years time.

I see that the recent weakness in bitcoin can be explained by a combination of the German government (well state of Saxony) forced sale of the 50k BTC seized as well as Mt Gox creditors slowly receiving 140k BTC over the coming 60 days or so. In that context once again bitcoin has shown some resilience and could even be back above $60k soon.

As for Argo I’ll stand by my prediction that share price will have collapsed and be 2.5p or lower around the time of the interims (Aug 31st) unless BTC has broken out to the upside beforehand.

'I reckon Craig buys a second wad of shares, another £25k but this time at 0.5p vs the 3p he paid in December.'

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Well I got that right!

Well they’re a lithium explorer currently and who knows what direction Thor go in next when they’re sitting on $200m+ cash - opportunities will become available to them beyond Douta.

The biggest difference now and the reason I say inevitable rerate (and didn't then) is because fundamentals remaining as good as they are there is so much cash flooding into the accounts that Segun will be armed with options and will have the firepower to simply drive the share price himself through buybacks if it came to that (which it likely won't). That wasn't the case previously.

Is there any chance that we'll be sitting here in a year's time having just made $100m+ and still be at a $125m mcap? No.

To be just 5% up YTD when you could almost not have asked for a better six and a half months is quite frankly astonishing. Yes there have been delays with Douta pfs but when it comes to the bread and butter operations what has happened since Jan 1st is exactly what we all positioned for… and some… and yet the share price is more or less where it was then.

Annoying as it is as long as the fundamentals remain this strong the rerate is inevitable.

Genuine question Sausage... what more could this management be doing right now? Sure there are loads in a similar boat to ECR but are they putting out positive rns after positive rns and building momentum and interest?

Do share some of those other companies doing it if they are a plenty

I specifically made reference to that q3 commercial production timeline at Kou being achieved which would mean HUM would be churning out 10s of thousands of ounces per month.

If that occurs alongside $2400/oz POG then investors will be back in here.

There are added risks to investing in HUM vs other small cap goldies but as POG rises and strengthens those risks reduce considerably.

If Dan meets this q3 Kou deadline then HUM is in for a big move soon, 15-20p will come quick.

Fast forward twelve months and the CI2 tin expansion plan should have completed and we'll be looking at close to 400t contained tin per quarter at AISC as low as $22k - if the tin price is still up here at $35k (and assuming no hedging) the $1.5m per quarter more than trebles to $5.2m per quarter.

With the above expansion funded there's significant growth to be seen over the next twelve months if the tin price remains well supported, even before the lithium comes into play.

We're looking at something like 225t contained tin a quarter, 60t hedged at $33k/t and the rest of $35k/t (using your price) against an AISC of ~$27.5k/t which would give ~$1.5m per quarter - a tad more than £1m.

So yeah that sounds about right assuming aisc comes in the middle of the guided range this year.

Yeah I do but I’m saying that those TGR are trying to agree funding with are not going to be backwards looking and are going to get access to the current numbers which, even you agreed yesterday, aren’t going to be pretty reading.

It doesn’t rule out debt financing being achieved but it’s unlikely on good terms hence my view that a placing comes first and if that cash puts the near term debt concerns to bed and gets production pointing in the right direction then larger sums of debt financing should be back on the table.

It’s a big challenge though

Revenue is obviously relevant but it needs to be rising to underpin a higher valuation and therefore the company moving towards cash flow positive - is it? No, revenue through q1 is likely ~£0.75m and that continues into q2.

The £4.9m of last year is backwards looking and not going to be repeated.

Some on here underestimate the impact for an early stage producer falling off their growth trajectory (and in this case full blown reversing) although the share price is indicative.

I agree with your comments below CS - Lyn appears an ambitious businessman to me so I don't expect success or failure to be based on effort or motivation, it'll be one of competence.

Would still feel a lot better if some big director purchases land soon though and it would signal the start of a new chapter and a shift in news flow.