Member Info for HarChris

'Why would this news inspire a 17% price increase? I don't get it'

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Because a cash hungry early stage biotech is using its cash reserves in a way that suggests that they are uber confident of landing further cash injections soon - and we know that previously a licence deal was close before it fell through so the chances are it's that.

If what they were seeing in the clinic from the 2 weekly stufy wasn't exceptional they wouldn't be paying in cash today.

Brilliant news - a hell of a lot is expected over the coming months so could well be a totally different picture by the time we get round to the October payment.

I’m not counting my chickens but this appears a lot more clear cut than a huge claim against Novacyt and a counterclaim.

Basic accounting

Happy with that overall. Obviously be better if it was already received but I can't see how the DHSC can get away without paying that (and I don't see why they'd want this whole saga to drag on further) .

Cash position will look a bit thinner in the short term but knowing theres £12.2m to come will be a boost - that's 40% of the entire Novacyt valuation.

And there's the proof to my last comment - once hype kicks in there's no knowing how high a sp goes in the short term!

20p will mean a £120m mcap against what will be about £4m left of cash and maybe six more months runway? And this is all pre revenue in a notoriously tricky sector (diagnostics).

That's easily possible when you look back and see that EXR was happily trading between £30m and £60m in 2020 right through to late 2022. The decline started after the poor Dec 2022 trading update followed by the large 4p placing a few months later.

The recovery really could be monumental.

Great call Amers.

I still think we're (almost) at max hype for GDR and max negativity for NCYT and that the latter will be worth many times the former in a year when sentiment reverses but time will tell.

Could you save your update for later in the day please BBN, I’m looking to add one final time tomorrow morn!

There’s so much scope for truly novel and innovative ways to use VR in the educational sphere and Engage is right in the thick of it - like you say the valuation really is nonsensical, it’s not unreasonable to think if this was a private Silicon Valley start up rather than an AIM listed small cap they’d be raising Series A funding at a valuation of $100m+

Those thinking a bull run will save Argo are probably lacking the understanding of just high BTC has to outpace difficulty to get back to the sort of revenue they were seeing in 2021.

Hash rate was running at a quarter of what it is now so when you add in the halving that makes rewards eight times smaller, BTC being equal - so for example $45k BTC in mid 2021 would be roughly equivalent to $340k BTC today. Sure fees can bring that down 10% or so but that's the reality you're faced with.

That's why some months in 2021 Argo was generating more than $10m per month (Nov 2021 $11.2m) whereas now, even with $65k BTC, it's less than $3m per month.

We have to remember that having been through a bull run Argo had acquired some decent assets back in 2022 and hence explains how they are still in business today. We’re talking $12.5m of new-in-box S19Js, $65m for Helios, a $7.5m placing, a $9.9m placing and $6.1m for Mirabel data centre.

Also for a period of that they were actually generating cash but now that’s all gone, there’s nout to sell and they are burning between $1m and $2m per month.

Can’t rule out pulling off a big equity raise but who’d support it with the hosting agreement terminating so soon after?

There is no question re commercialisation now if the tech is as good as it appears to be - the current cash pile will see Avacta through to the point in which the data is unequivocal as to efficacy of Ava6000 and of its improvement vs current standard of care, even if they cover the next Heights payment in cash.

Put shareholders at the top of decision making, support and defend the share price and then leverage that much stronger valuation (alongside further progress and data reveals) to raise enough cash to see themselves through P2.

That will maximise returns here.

That’s true but it’s so very hard to imagine them lasting much longer.

In the past there was always asset sales to keep them in business but now there isn’t and the halving has been and gone and the machines are slowly wearing. And on top of that that they are five months away from the end of the hosting agreement.

I’d eat my hat, gloves and boots if they are still in business and above 5p a share in six to nine months time.

I'm with BBN - you are just here listing every possible downside imaginable. I could start calling for $3000/oz gold, 3 year MLE, Douta mineral resource expanded to 300k etc etc but i'm not.

Have the bb to yourself for now, it's too tiring trying to promote my investment when you're just here searching for reasons to counter any positive.

You're now going a step further and giving your opinion as fact and consensus after one person agreed with you on here.

The only fact is that the gold price is 25% higher than it was a year ago and is now at all time highs. There is no euphoria here, it's the opposite. Cold hard cash being generated and now at record levels with the big downside debt risk almost eliminated.

It's an amazingly rare thing to see the unions and shareholders aligned!

There are always a list of potential risks but those threats decrease here the more cash that is generated.

A year ago the price of gold could have sunk, for example, leaving THX in a mess re meeting their debt obligations and STILL the market priced it at 22p. Today that risk has almost entirely dissipated, having already reduced debt by $16.1m with just $7.9m remaining and against a record high gold price and significant amount of GIC to draw down.

The risks vis a vis this date in 2023 have fallen dramatically and yet the share price is 32% down - this is something I will continue to emphasise.

A few months ago Segun broke it down as 300k ounces left to be had by the end of mine life and within the five year tax holiday, stating it as $300m FCF with a conservative $1000/oz margin.

Since then the margin has increased well beyond $1000/oz, with ~$1250/oz currently but even calling it $1100/oz that’s $330m fcf against current mcap of $125m.

Net cash will exceed this current valuation well before the end of the original mine life and before Douta is producing.

Nah, just tell us you’ve bought when the share price is next way up, that way you can’t be wrong.

Well I’m glad I didn’t short Argo at 10p but my word, months away from going out of business and absolutely no investment case whatsoever and still we’re here at a £70m valuation.

One of the most illogical disconnects I’ve ever come across.

I think we should rely on management’s word more than say, yourself, who seems to be thinking aloud with every message instead of doing the research first and then sharing. It’s ’where did you hear that?’ , it’s ’where did you get that?’ followed by three consecutive messages and then corrections and so forth.

I’m not saying guidance will be missed but if it’s still achievable at this point according the mgmt then I would be very surprised if the actual figure comes in below 90k and shocked if it was closer to 80k.