Member Info for HarChris

They each got about 38m votes and there's been about 19m volume since so it's possible some of the requisitioners with a smaller holding have sold out - Hemant won't have and I would guess Optiva haven't either though.

Finance in some form or other must be soon, surely? Next week perhaps.

Agree on that - it does seem like they don’t really think the company is a dead cert to die under Shishir, like they were making out.

I thought they’d be more of a rush for the exit post-requisition failure but doesn’t seem to be the case.

LOL Robdog, there's every chance they'll post $65m+ FCF over just Q3 and Q4 if gold is at $2400/oz, a PE of less than 1.

With soon to be no debt and an AISC of ~$1150, $2400/oz is more than enough to see this double, they don't need $3000/oz!

It’s not a surprise that BBNs insight is of no interest to you - it’s far too positive. Yeah just stick to your own made up projections!

Excellent BBN. Above my analytical abilities but was hoping you’d pop in to clear up some of the uncertainty since the recent update.

Not so bothered if Segun doesn’t get back to me now!

This conversation really highlights why it’s so baffling that the THX share price has made no ground this year. Junior producers ARE higher risk. This isn’t Barrick or any of the other multi $B companies being bandied around, this is a small cap with limited funds that’s always needing funding for various reasons.

As it happens the gold price has substantially derisked this investment. It’s provided the cash for Thor to pay down 2/3rds of its scheduled debt repayments this year in the first half of the year despite disappointing on the production side. The ATH gold price has also coincided with what is expected to (i) be a much stronger H2 and (ii) one where GIC is being drawn down and sold at record prices and margins.

Additionally thanks to the derisking focus can switch to drilling, mle and proving up reserves.

Sure there’s a couple of things we’d like a bit of clarity on but let’s not let it detract from what is easily the best position THX has even been in as a listed company, by a country mile.

And like you say if that was the case Segun would certainly distribute some of the cash to shareholders via dividends and part finance the mine through debt and equity.

Still every chance that we’ll see dividends AND a fully funded Douta from the next couple of years’ cash flow

Exactly. A fully funded Douta, a project likely to be far bigger in size and scale than Segilola and paid for from internal cash generation will make THX an incredibly attractive proposition.

Hardly something to be disparaging about.

Arb are very close to the end now with little chance of any sort of turnaround. Management has known this for 12+ months and still has failed to find a new direction to take the business in to potentially keep it alive.

Forget 28.3p, that’s so unlikely to ever be seen again. If on a spike you get offered half of that think long and hard about it - investing is just as much about reducing the losses as it is the wins.

The rescheduling of debt gives Craig breathing space to actually deliver some operational improvements for the first time. Vanadium price is without doubt the biggest factor that will determine a recovery or not but additionally Craig needs to be spot on when it comes to execution or the debt repayments in 2025 and beyond will be prohibitive to survival.

(i) A substantial rise in V to $45/kgV and (ii) Vametco running consistently at 240mtV per month with a strategic growth plan in place and those still holding/buying at 0.6p will make a good return. Otherwise it'll be dilution to oblivion.

A binary bet at this juncture but one with a sizeable potential return.

Yeah. Would be great if he gets back to those messaging him with answers. Would totally put all question marks as to where this is heading to bed.

Has anyone else in here corresponded with Segun in the past?

I think we very much agree with each other Adw. Although there is opportunity cost to holding the 'wrong' miner at any given time we are at least left with an easy decision now at 15p - really worst case here is that targets prove to be overly optimistic and profit ends up a little lower than we hoped. Even if that were to happen I still think we end next year with more in net cash that today's valuation meaning any MLE at Segilola still brings solid upside from 15p and I believe Douta will prove to be a sizeable and significant future asset.

It's really a case of whether we see modest upside from here or blue sky - fingers crossed for the latter.

Interest rates were rock bottom until the BoE started slowly hiking them in 2022 so you'd have got nothing like that return.

Anyway, anyone can say that after the fact - truth is you aren't some risk averse prudent individual if you're lobbing £600k at an AIM company that is being hyped to hell and has already risen many thousand percent - you're a gambler.

If today's news immediately followed the DHSC dispute outcome rns we would almost certainly have seen the share price hold firm at the very least on June 11th rather than trickle down from 65p to the 45p we're at now. And it would likely have steadily risen towards £1.

AIM is more sentiment than fundamentals.

Adw I know some might think I take Segun at his word too readily but I can't see the benefit of him doing all these interviews and exaggerating the 2024 outlook in each... to what benefit? They aren't in need of finance and he'll only get found out a few more months down the line?

So when he says casually they are producing 2000-2100 oz per week I imagine that at least is the case at the point of the interview, i.e at the start of Q3... and as they have chosen to maintain guidance rather than downgrade by 5 to 10k I think it reasonable to assume that they expect H2 to far exceed H1? That's fair, right?

If that wasn't the case it would make much more sense to downgrade targets now so as to receive more positive coverage when those new targets are achieved at the end of the year.

What are you expecting for the Q2 financial results now? We know POG averaged ~$2340/oz for the quarter so let's say conservatively they sold 21k oz at $1200 aisc, that's $24m FCF for what we're calling a poor quarter! With $16m of the senior debt facility paid off, again, against what we consider a poor half year.

It's only going to highlight what a bloody good quarter is going to look like later this year.

Well they got my votes for most resolutions - I don’t see much benefit to attempting to thwart this new executive team from doing something with all the resources they now have.

Otherwise i’d just sell and move on.

Christina is signalling that shareholders under her leadership are going to be looked after, they are not going to be hung out to dry only for new investors late to the party to nip in at the elventh hour and make the biggest returns.

Too many ceo's focus only on the end goal and in doing so lose the shareholder support they so badly need in order to get there.

Well my own interpretation at the time was that it was possibly agreed that the news release would focus on the net result going the DHSCs way, after all the whole exercise for them was one of saving face. They’ll have wanted any write up following the verdict to be one that stated that they were the ones receiving money and clawing back tax payer funds.

We also don’t know if anything else has been discussed since re payments or whether they expected the vat by now and were waiting to release that news in the days following.

Brilliant balanced post Adw, really captured most of what others will be thinking.

My conclusion is pretty much exactly the same as your though. Yes there are a few things that have caused some uncertainty of late such as the throwaway '2000-2100 oz production' comment without clearly stating that the step change has only recently occurred but in the end of the day we are at a ridiculously low market valuation vs the cash that will now be being generated. So is there really much downside risk at this level? Well of course there's always unforeseen events that can catch you off guard but realistically we'd need to see some combination of:

(i) price of gold falling sharply

(ii) Production targets well missed

(iii) Minimal to no mine life extension at Segilola (both overground & overground)

(iv) Disappointing PFS results at Douta

Possible? Sure. Likely? No. I think with patience here and with the cash generation being seen in black and white, first in August but more noticeably in November, we'll get to 30p before the year is out.