Member Info for HarChris

Are you sure you've got your numbers right groucho? Seems rather unlikely to me.

From the DFS: 'The key revenue drivers for Songwe are neodymium and praseodymium. The base case basket value and MREC price forecasts reflect underlying neodymium oxide (Nd oxide) and praseodymium oxide (Pr oxide) price forecasts of US$165.0/kg and US$156.8/kg in 2022 increasing to US$215.5/kg and US$204.7/kg in 2025 and US$266.0/kg and US$252.7/kg in 2035.'

The below site which I believe it trustworthy has July Nd price at $91.20/kg and July 2022 price of ~$220/kg which matches up with what you would expect the base case to be at the time of the DFS.

https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/neodymium-prices/

Whilst some are making valid points re Songwe it's only relevant with MKA at a much higher valuation than the measly $15m mcap it closed at on Friday.

An acquirer would see value even at current NDPr & rare earth prices as they are considered temporary and Songwe has an 18 year mine life + the geopolitical importance could well mean the 'west' supports such a project like this even at a loss to secure non Chinese critical materials. So a sale price of $25m-$35m seems reasonable if MKA chose to focus on HyProMag... and that's twice the current mcap in cash.

A tad misleading as that cash figure doesn’t include the raise that concluded in April and more than doubled the cash position.

More apt to say what a shame the MDA didn’t come earlier as they’d have got a placing away far higher than 5p if so.

And looking at the 1 year chart the two big spikes to ~12p were off the back of MDA speculation/positive soundings around progress. And then in the past six months or so it went quiet with hope almost becoming lost and the SP has sunk very since.

However big Hypromag is likely to be in the future Songwe does seem to have the biggest impact on share price - I see this multibagging next week.

I’m someone with only a tiny holding that was planning to buy more so I’m a bit disappoin…

No, no I’m not. Very happy for the long term holders here, been a long tough ride! I think sentiment remains strong for a while now so will buy some more myself tomorrow unless there’s too much of an immediate spike.

At the current gold price all miners are essentially cash cows... but what differs is the balance sheet. Companies like HUM will be generating tons of cash but have a very challenging debt schedule to meet in 2024 so there is the possibility of having to raise to meet debt obligations. Others will have more of the recent gold move priced in.

THX started the year with just $7.8m cash and have already paid off $16.1m of their senior debt facility through H1. A period in which some on here are complaining was so very poor and half of which saw a gold price far lower than it is now (~$2050/oz).

We are now very much in the 'making hay' zone. Gold being sold this half year will be at least 20% greater than in H1 and the price almost certainly higher. And there's just $7.9m of the debt facility left to pay down so cash to put towards drilling and growth will accelerate substantially.

There's an exciting rest of the year ahead no doubt about it.

That is very positive for bitcoin on top of the halving.

Maybe $100k is in the crosshairs after all?

Here comes the second freshly minted account to talk to themselves.

From IES annual report:

'Vanadium forms about two-thirds of the value of the electrolyte, which in turn forms about a quarter of the landed cost of a battery, and so a fluctuation in the price of vanadium will impact the profitability of battery sales. An increase or decrease in the market price of vanadium of 5% could cause the value of the electrolyte component of a battery to increase or decrease by approximately 3%.'

Everytime I post almost instantly three green filtered boxes appear. You know I've filtered you so if you are responding to my posts with questions directly to me then it's extremely disingenuous as you know you won't get a specific response.

If in fact you're just writing what you could in one message, in three or four, and aren't speaking to me at all then I apologise.

Going right up to the deadline.

I’d imagine the accounts and the funding are inextricably linked - they won’t get signed off as a going concern for 12 months without finance sorted. So next week is a biggie.

A reminder that the target now for H2 is ~54k oz. If we assume a $1150 aisc then we are looking at FCF of $65m for H2 alone at an average gold price of $2350/oz for the half year.

Tweak that as much as you want. Assume the 54k oz is missed by a whole 10% (won't be more than that with GIC being drawn down), that aisc comes in higher, that gold falls back to $2200/oz. In all these highly conservative scenarios we still see significant profit that more than justifies a lowly $120m mcap.

A whole lot of factors need to go against us to lose money from here which is why it offers such a good risk/reward.

Every holder that either went to the AGM or follows Avacta's progress closely will already, in less than three months, know why Alastair was forced out and what a difference Christina is going to make and is already making.

And it's not about the science. It's not a shifting of deck chairs on the titanic. It's a whole new unsinkable boat.

'Al got the boot for a reason.'

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You're right there and it's not because he was doing the best he could with a poor molecule/tech, it was the opposite.

It’s quite amazing how unloved the gold sector is currently.

We see gold price come off all time highs and it’s as if it’s retraced from $2400/oz to $1400/oz and profit is being wiped out yet the reality is that we’re just finishing another month of record supernormal profits.

Obviously got to hope it doesn’t fall right back but for now everything is looking extremely positive here besides the share price - best to check in less often and ignore the noise.

‘ They must be itching to raise at this point’

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For sure which makes the situation potentially worse - I’d hazard a guess that they just don’t have the backing for a placing right now and so are left with no choice but to run down the clock and hope bitcoin comes to their rescue beforehand to improve sentiment and appetite.

Very close to bankruptcy here.

Clsk, I’m talking about Argo in particular rather than the space in general - I’m holding onto my NA miners.

I reckon Argo’s cash position is very close to the bone now hence my call that if btc hasn’t rallied hard by the interims end of August then the SP craters to ~2p. Although I’m sure Chippas is trying his hardest to get a placing away as we speak.

Maybe that btc rally will come after the speech but more likely the broader market weakness will play a bigger factor near term.

This is so far from a ‘keeping the lights on’ placing as it gets and that’s why the share price should hold up well.

Abdx were always going to need further funding to grow and this does it all in one go through an acquisition and extra cash for working capital and investment.

The only shame is that it couldn’t be done at a higher share price but sitting and waiting and relying on sp appreciation first comes with its own costs.

Hmm I disagree with that statement. Previously STX was on a far steeper growth trajectory and hence was supported by the market - they were able at that point to raise the necessary cash to achieve their objectives.

Greg failed and now they are having to find creative ways to get by like giving up 50% of a future milestone payment as well as taking on considerable debt.

The risk of failure is now much higher but the upside is significant if the new CEO is able to make enough progress over the coming six months or so - high risk play here for those with the appetite.

We're back to the same situation with Argo. Difficulty rose a week ago and is currently forecasting a new all time high in hash at the next adjustment. And yet BTC is still just $64k.