Member Info for HarChris

It's hard to get one's head around.

Before this private placing I would guess that Argo's cash position was close to zero, perhaps $1.5m. Add the £6.5m/$8.3m then take away the $5.7m that needs repaying to Galaxy by year end + min $1m cash burn per month. Does that mean Argo can't make it to 2025 still without a significant BTC move or further funding?

And if they do get that funding they're left with $40m debt and old inefficient machines that will begin to be needing replacements?

Yet Armistice Capital fund them at just shy of a $95m valuation?

Bitcoin briefly crashing to sub $50k... gold nonchalantly trading at $2435/oz.

Are we about to see an even more substantial move to 'safe haven' gold?

$3m revs, margin 'mid 20s' - Hexam/CLSK what do you make the cash loss from that? $1.5m per month?

With difficulty adjusted s much higher and this BTC crash August will likely be closer to $2m revs than $3m. Armistice Capital's recent 9% stake looking awful already.

So a good few weeks back there was a lot of panic over forced dumping by the German government (state of Saxony) + Mt Gox but BTC withstood it and flirted wih $70k again. Then all the hype around Trump's speech being the start of the next bull run and yet here we are back sub $59k.

These short term moves are impossible to forecast.

Segun Lawson owns a substantial amount of the company so we can be sure management will do what’s best for shareholders

Gold itching to break another new all time high

Impossible to know in truth but the gold price sure is supportive so worth the risk I think - going to buy some this morn.

My guess, and it’s just that, is that there have been issues. Alongside the higher gold price it is therefore better to push back the update giving them a bit longer to get those issues sorted.

It would align with the sudden sell off a week ago too.

Loudspeaker, I do agree with you on the whole, so much so that I am much more likely to invest in a company with poorer fundamentals that is traded heavily and widely followed than one with stronger fundamentals but is largely ignored and unloved.

However I make exceptions for companies like THX that are producing so much cash relative to their valuation that they are able to actively manage the share price themselves if it comes to that - via buybacks etc

Essentially if you generate more cash than your valuation you're on to a guaranteed winner. Thor is not far from that point now hence I expect a meaningful share price recovery later in 2024 or some management intervention to ensure it happens.

The order of funding is crucial to any recovery. Anyone thinking sensibly and rationally will know that (up to) £80m of debt financing is not coming right now, there is simply no chance (okay extremely unlikely) that TGR are going to be leant that sort of cash figure because there is too high of a chance that they won't be able to pay it back. They won't generate a profit for a long while and they don't have the market support to raise it via equity. It'll be above most lenders' risk profile. Additionally the first two to three £million would go towards paying off their current debt that is maturing over the next twelve months, not towards capex.

I'm also wondering if the Madagascan government (unethically) is waiting to see what happens next before shelling out what they owe to TGR. If it looks like a collapse is on the cards they might hold off vs pay it if there's a future for the company.

So you're left with two options or both - selling the Suni acquisition and a placing. It's not ideal and for someone like Shishir it will dent his pride enormously but they are backed into a corner right now and it would unlock capital and give the management a second chance to prove that they are capable of an operational turnaround.

For example announcing the sale first and then leveraging the improved sentiment to raise some additional cash would give them a fair crack at getting back to 30kt production at Vatomina/Sahamamy and with that commitment to Madagascar you'd expect the government to give them their backing and release the rebate funds/ offer relief on future tax payments.

Debt options would then open up again if successful execution is demonstration with growth firmly back on track in Madagascar.

Whilst it's clear I lost faith in Shishir a long time ago there was a part of me that thought he must have something up his sleeve having fought his corner so hard to hold off the requisitioners... he must be confident that he can pull off what those proposed directors were saying he couldn't I thought.

And yet here we are almost two months later with absolutely no visible progress, no money to even pay the cln coupon without Shishir himself stepping in to personally cover it, no cash to pay senior staff, Sahamamy mothballed and now also in suspension.

Selling the Mozambique assets could prove to be the only option available right now.

It's interesting seeing the likes of Loudspeaker below who I think is fresh to THX and is looking at forecasts that have gold at $2700/oz and well beyond in the medium term. With AISC price of ~$1150/oz there is such a ginormous margin that personally all I look for each day is gold holding firm. At $2400/oz we're talking around 66% gross margins and 50+% net margin, at a time when most miners in other sectors are far from break even.

We don't need gold pushing on from here is what i'm saying but if it does it merely makes the proposition even more compelling, especially as every extra dollar generated goes straight to the bank thanks to the tax holiday in Nigeria.

Whatever the news, whatever the hour I can be damn sure to log on here to find a poster accusing another poster of lying about some thing they said back in 2023 or whatever.

Could it be time to move on?

It was the governance issues which started the rot here in the first place, when operations were still seemingly on track.

It's one of many reasons that lead me to think securing meaningful funding on good terms here unlikely... the money men invest in a project and the management team and the latter has shown time and time again that they are substandard.

Yeah cj and as they aren’t including the run up to Christmas the targets Avacta have set are expected to be achieved by early December ie four months from now.

This is a news rich period all being well.

Sure the accounts payable is quite high and reasonable to highlight that but there's also accounts receivable to cancel some of it out and a very large inventory position alongside and now far lower debt repayments to be concerned with each month.

The balance sheet is being transformed week by week and will look unrecognisable when the 2024 full year accounts are released next year vs the 2023 accounts.

This gold move is what we all bought in for and it's stronger than any of us could have asked for.

We're now back in the position of all time hash rate against just $63k btc meaning even lower revenues for Argo.

The first two weeks of August will produce something like $1.2m revs... it's mad that Argo just keeps being kept on life support - if it was a human you'd call it cruel!

Gold could go to $3000/oz and some on here would go 'sorry but we can't say THX are making a profit til we've seen the latest results'

You totally ignored my point.

Shishir owns a huge chunk of an ~£8m company. His share was worth ~£15m+ at one point and if he can secure funding his share will be worth many millions again so yes it’s worth him risking some of his personal wealth and continuing to try to secure funding rather than throwing in the towel now. And he owes it to shareholders.

So no I don’t think it means that funding is likely, it just means that he believes he can pull it off. We’ve all known from day one that he believes in his ability, that’s never been in doubt. And he’s an eternal optimist… problem is whether financiers believe in him enough at this stage to part with their money.

Yes. Segun has been working off the assumption of 300k ounces left from the original mine plan at a conservative $1000/oz margin. That’s from about mid 2024.