Member Info for HarChris

Yeah dividend policy to be initiated in 2025.

Despite how good the fundamentals are THX will never do multibags over a short period of time though, admittedly, there just isn’t the appetite for gold miners like there is for bitcoin miners when bitcoin takes off.

It is a relatively low risk small cap though which has served me well up until now.

This is exactly what we've been saying - being at the stage where debt is paid down and cash is flowing like a river operations and exploration and activity is going to be ramped up significantly.

Plenty more news to come in the coming months.

THX is now in a totally different position to explore Segilola and build up those ounces and mine life due to the lower debt burden and huge cash generation - the next few months with the Douta PFS, alongside this ever increasing gold price and Segilola news could finally blow the bloody doors off!

I'm rather worried for Ilovesushi if this starts recovering, I think he might spontaneously combust.

Yes although much smaller position at this stage (unfortunately). Further upside to be had there too.

Gold is now surging and has broken its ATH once again. Argo SP is exactly half of THXs so let's see if it's half the business...

Q2 THX - revs $54m, ebitda $38m, net profit $27.5m

For the whole half year Argo only managed $29m revs with a $33m net loss.

THX has paid down so much debt this year that just only something like $5m remains and gone by end of year compared with Argo's ~$40m. THX about to go net cash positive (and will motor with the huge sums being generated).

THX has a tax holiday until 2026 and now with all capex sunk for their current mine and with gold continuing to rise and sales this half year forecast to far exceed H1 we are looking at something like $78m ebitda in H2 with net profit close to $60m. Argo meanwhile will be seeing further erosion in margins due to similar BTC price and ath global hash rate.

When it comes to mine life Argo essentially has a couple of years, after that time all their assets are sunk and they need to rebuild operations (equipment/rigs). For THX that's currently 3 years but they are now drilling to close the resource out at depth with the possibility of that been extended to 7-10 years. Think of all the cash made over that time vs mcap of £115m.

If markets were rational these companies wouldn't be similarly valued.

Anyway a good very recent interview for you CLSK and for others interested in THX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5qWFrOGma4

The easiest and simplest illustration of the undervaluation is the one year gold chart vs one year THX chart. Over the period POG has moved from $1900/oz to $2550/oz and the THX share price is back to exactly what it was this time last year.

The market doesn't like the delayed Douta PFS or lack of MLE at Segilola as of yet but they are both coming and coming soon as all signs point to us being happy with the news when it comes.

And to think the greatest number of ounces are going to be produced and sold now whilst gold is at all time highs and likely going even higher.

SP is going higher too, no doubt.

Q3 results will be staggering - there’s so much potential positive news to be compounded here over the coming months, I don’t think it’s rampy to think 30p could be exceeded by year end.

Or these TOs will wake the market up as to the undervaluation and we'll see the share price rise to a level that'll deter acquisitions.

Yeah clsk they are well run by a ceo that has significant skin in the game, owns something like 12% of the company and successfully brought this mine online and delivering very close to mine plan.

They will continue to throw off huge cash now right through to ~2027 by which the new Douta mine should have been deletes through internal cash generation and maybe some debt.

Dagenham that all time high should be taken out seeing as they are in the position they dreamed of being at this point, free of debt (v soon) and simply building a mountain of cash going forward.

My big investment currently is THX, Thor Explorations. Recently announced AISC coming in at under $1000/oz which gold at $2500/oz!

I haven’t posted all that much recently and I’m not willing it to fail whatsoever, that’s unfair, I’m just commenting on news (/lack of news in this case) as I always have. And as I’ve said many times if there’s a meaningful turnaround and I can get in at a fair price I’ll be buying back in.

Your responses are always reasonable and grounded but for now the fact remains that there are very few reasons to be optimistic currently as we sit here with a suspension many times the length of last year’s suspension. Doubly as bad for repeating the failure to have accounts sorted in time and trebly due to the sheer time in which it’s taking this time.

So for now it’s hope that’s keeping you going more than it is logic.

Https://x.com/igwtreport/status/1830951830957740411?s=46&t=L7k3nxfxN_9xwjjIedxUrA

Very few able to match Thor’s AISC right now.

It’s called being heavily loss making

The only reason TGR are producing whilst others aren't is because Shishir undertook a totally different strategy to get to market quicker but the truth is for now it hasn't paid off. There's no added benefit to producing revenue vs being pre revenue if you are loss making and failing to scale in order to reach cash generative stage. It just becomes a money pit.

Right now they are targeting 8000tpa run rate at Vatomina. That's run rate rather than actual production for FY 2025 so realistically it will be more like 6000T for FY2025 and that's being kind given TGR haven't come close to hitting targets for years now. Especially given this caveat to these numbers 'subject to there being no disruptions or inefficiencies caused by financial limitations;' - what are the chances of that being the case?

The share price doesn't lie. YTD BRES is up 15%, TGR is down 60%. The market would rather put their trust and money behind a management team that's done all the right things but just hasn't yet secured the funding to progress to full scale commercial production vs one that has failed /shown inexperience and poor judgement on numerous fronts up until now.

Does Shishir deserve some credit for buying high class assets for well below market value? You're obviously referring to Mozambique assets and yes sure that to me is still good business but that doesn't excuse the multitude of missteps since.

As for what it's worth let's see what the balance sheet looks like once the accounts are finally released and suspension is lifted. My money is on the net assets being far lower than what was stated in the unaudited half year report, after all it's not like there was a CFO to sign that off.

Certainly not game over yet but there's little to be optimistic about at the mo.

Well the bulk of that money was provided by Alastair in March - that's very likely a quid pro quo for giving Alastair a position in the executive team. Cash for status. And I'm sure back then there was greater optimism re forthcoming funding. Six months on so far so bad.

I don't doubt that they think TGR can survive and hence decided to support the company but it was forced as much as anything, it was either director loans or administration as the CLN coupon would not have been paid.

I think they'll find money from somewhere to keep going a bit longer (i.e tax rebate + placing) but raise anything like the £80m they require, through debt, to reach their short-medium term plan of 54ktpa in Mad and 50ktpa in Moz? Really tough to see that ever happening now.

Very much appreciated as ever BBN.

So in the worst case scenario that THX just continue with 70% of the asset it’ll also mean just 70% of the total capex requirements so even easier to fund through internal cash generation + debt.

More likely though we’ll end with the entire asset and all the increased upside that’ll come with that, assuming successful execution.

Looking forward to this imminent PFS.

Douta is 70% owned by Thor. Could someone explain how it works in regards to obtaining 100% of the asset? Is it likely and will it now cost a ton more because of the gold price and the likely vastly improved NPV economics ?

He’s a risk averse finance guy that’s able to guarantee a £305k profit from this sale with tons more options to make him rich if Avacta comes good in the years ahead.

I imagine now he’s well set up for most of his life upon leaving and if Avacta ever gets to the blue sky valuations we hope for he’ll be very rich when he exercises his remaining options.

Investors were paying more than 20p in mid 2023 when the risks were substantially higher and even around lse IPO before commercial production had been reached.

It’s unquestionable that the risks have now reduced enormously due to the lack of debt, the cash position and the on going cash generation so whilst risks will always remain for a gold miner in this part of the world this is hardly the time to be cautious as an investor.