Member Info for HarChris

'Talking rubbish mate

If that was the case this would be diluted now'

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You're assuming that there's institutions willing to take on 300m shares at 7p - that's unlikely at this stage as it puts them at the back of the line to see any returns.

Fair enough Adw that’s why I stated slightly lower net profit likely in q3 followed by much higher net profit in q4 - but more importantly the cash position will be rising much faster now which opens up numerous avenues for progress and growth.

I think we’re in agreement, just need to be a bit more patient til it’s seen in black and white via RNS.

You’re ignoring the increase in gold price through Q3 vs Q2 which will make up for some of the lost margin, plus as Segun said in a recent interview big ticket capex at Segilola is already sunk.

Add in less debt to be repaid and I think we’ll see cash generation in Q3 a fair bit higher than in Q2 and then a big jump in Q4. And that’s what matters most.

The last six months has essentially eliminated the downside debt risk, something that was very real early in 2024. Investments aren’t just about the upside but also the risk to the downside, can anyone realistically make a case for Thor being valued at anything less than its current $160m when it already has net assets that dwarf that figure and will be seeing $30m of growth per quarter for the foreseeable?

Low risk AIM share is the pull factor for me with meaningful and significant upside once well signposted catalysts land.

Adw you’re right about Q3 but bear in mind that $27.5m net profit was made with just 23500 ounces sold - factoring in the weighting towards Q4, both in terms of ounces sold and gold price (assuming $2600+ holds) and we’ll probably be looking at $25m net profit q3 then ~$35m for q4.

H2 should generate even larger profit than Q2 averaged across the two quarters.

3pm Tuesday ***

The Investor Meet is 3pm on Monday.

Having got all the bad news out a few weeks back and the kicking the SP has seen since these interims should be met positively

I'm personally of the view that the balance sheet 'issues' for want of a better word now fade into the background and rapidly disappear due to such a significant step change in FCF going forward, however it's unhelpful to dismiss them out of hand. I hear you.

I'll try to take a backseat on here as I've posted a bit incessantly recently (week off work and girlfriend away!) and clear the floor for posters like you and BBN.

Let's hope for some Segilola drill results tomorrow or early next week.

Sorry if my message came across as confrontational, it didn't mean to be. You're an excellent, well researched and balanced commentator.

Pardon? I thought your post was useful but wanted to highlight the assets on hand alongside. I'm also pointing out that they will never pay down liabilities to zero, there are no large companies out there with zero liabilities.

The senior debt facility is paid off this year (with the cash on hand to have already paid it off by June 30th) which was always the biggest risk that could leave them at the mercy of creditors and the accounts payable will continue to fall all the while THX generates ~$10m per month FCF.

$160m mcap is a massive disconnect which will hopefully correct in due course.

If you’re going to include all the liabilities don’t forget to mention there’s $7.5m cash on hand, $80m of inventory (split between current and non current assets) and $5m in prepaid advances and expenses not yet deducted from the liabilities.

THX were just about in the strongest position they’ve ever been in as of June 30th - that amplifies now with the gold price so high and the bigger one-off capex items at Segilola now sunk.

You won’t find a gold producer with no liabilities. THX has 2.5X the assets to liabilities on its balance sheet already and by the end of the year that will be more like 5X

@pjt12 there are far more clued up investors than me but they aren't on here so I'll do my best to answer.

Firstly I think you're exaggerating what AVA6000 needs to achieve to be hailed a success. It's not got to be a wonder drug, it's simply got to improve on the safety and efficacy of current standard of care, in this case Doxorubicin. And this looks likely... It's unequivocally clear that safety is in the bag so it's just got to show some statistically relevant improvement in efficacy and (as Dr Tap stated) it will become standard of care overnight.

Most importantly I think patients on the trial were heavily pretreated and in many cases essentially terminally sick. This therefore likely means that no level of Dox would stabilise disease. The second thing to note is that many of these patients had cancers that wouldn't be treated with Dox, that wouldn't be expected to respond to Doxorubicin no matter the dosage/amount of drug reaching the TME. There were 11 colorectal cancer patients and 8 pancreatic for example so that's a third of patients that you wouldn't expect to see stable disease with anyhow just from these type cancer types.

When you look at the actual rate of response for Doxorubicin it's something like 5-15% so AVA6000, when treating just those with High FAP tumours that typically respond to Dox (STS + Head/Neck) needs merely to better this very low benchmark to be considered a far better alternative and be approved for these small indications. There would then be breast as a possible treatment to go after but more importantly the platform and technology is what's being proven currently.

I own more than I thought ever possible + gone and scraped another few £k together today for a top up.

About as safe as it gets on AIM at this valuation.

It's not about hype, it's about the risk in execution. I made it quite clear why I consider the two to be different - one was dealing in an unprecendented fast changing environment, the other is a trial that is attempting to replace a 50 year old SOC and is doing so in a very prudent and slow fashion with the oversight of the most experienced individuals possible.

I'm not but i'm pointing out that there are many like me who didn't invest at that time and wasn't caught up with that hype but feel very differently today about the therapeutics arm.

And for good reason.

I'm sure anyone sensible would have understood that the risks around an LFT to fight against a novel virus in a fast-moving pandemic environment were far higher than a very carefully crafted clinical trial that's supported by eminent experts in their field (STS and head/neck specialists) doing everything possible to ensure success.

The risks are not comparable.

Read the broker note and then you might understand rather than just base it on today's figures.

Institutions valued it at twice today's mcap fairly recently.

The difference now is that all these catalysts are being valued at zero whereas before they were just seeing little value applied.

And as for things like the working capital deficit, it’s now inevitable that that turns positive even without the catalysts coming into play.

Douta was always the flagship asset since it was acquired almost ten years ago. The plan was always to develop the smaller mine in Nigeria first and then progress to a much larger operation in Senegal.

They could never have dreamed all those years ago that Douta could be developed without a huge financial package in place but that’s now the case. No need for full FID sign off, THX can crack on immediately building the mine using internally generated cash - an almost unprecedented position for a junior miner.

As for avoiding Nigeria… well soon you can add Ivory Coast and Senegal to that list, two jurisdictions with a long track record of successful gold operations. Being a multi jurisdictional company reduces risk enormously.

Say what you want THX is now perfectly placed to go from a junior miner/explorer to a mid tier miner spread right across West Africa.

None of that is a fact, it’s just your opinion. THX was valued higher as an explorer, pre production which shows how nonsensical the valuation is given the performance against the mine plan to date and the gold price.

As for your point about cash, well yeah, at $2000/oz it took time to pay down the large senior debt facility, they weren’t making as much then and there was also heavy sustaining capex still to be spent at Segilola.

Now almost every penny goes into the cash pile at levels that dwarf anything seen in the past.

Every quarterly financial report going forward will highlight the step change.