Member Info for HarChris

THX is valued so low as it is because there isn’t a clear future laid out just yet but with Douta there is the potential to soon see visibility of enormous profits for 10 to 15 years to come.

That’s what’s needed for price earning ratios in line with its peers and from here means a share price multiples of today's 16p.

Being able to fully fund a mine as big as Douta without any dilution is what will lead to the rerate here, especially in the uncertain times ahead market-wise and the cost of capital.

Initiating a dividend policy will be well received even if only a modest amount is redistributed back into shareholders' accounts.

What I'm mainly looking for from this next update, which will likely be this week, is reiteration of the new guidance.

That will give confirmation that Q4 will be mind blowing in terms of cash generation against a gold price of $2600+ /oz.

That wasn’t my point. The articles may be new but they are just rehashed with old information that is now irrelevant.

I said this earlier in the week, the issue has been put to bed but journalism isn’t exactly top notch in Nigeria so random articles will still pop up for some time as journalists play catch up.

No basket price is not £1000/T. Current monthly revenue more like £200k and certainly not generating cash at this level, won’t even cover the administration costs.

These are all out of date articles.

The rns’ cleared it all up + a recent piece about the federal state stepping in to make sure nothing like this happens again and Nigerian continues to attract FDI.

Operations were unaffected.

Sorry I did get a bit muddled there - production now around 300T per month hence more like a 60% decline.

It’s not really what matters now, financing is what matters most, but investors have been waiting so long for this and still it’s somewhere off in the distance.

The next update needs to be concrete financing news not more ‘progress’.

I completely agree that if they pull off debt financing there will be a great return to be had from this level... but it's reasonable to highlight that management have been talking debt finance since at least October of last year (and earlier I think) and here we are twelve months on producing 80T per month and racing towards CLN Maturity. The year previous they were producing ~800T per month, hence a 90% decline.

Shishir always gives reasons to hope but very rarely delivers.

You’re almost certainly going to be delighted come the full year results then.

Management is still forecasting 50k ounces for h2. In q2 they were still completing and commissioning the plant upgrade whereas now it's full steam ahead in terms of drawing down gold in circuit, hence the far larger production figures to be seen in H2 (likely 48k oz vs 40k oz)

The fly rock incident in July means much greater weighting towards Q4 but yes with up to 1500 oz/pm being drawn down in circuit they can pour 26k in q4, possibly a bit higher all being well.

I still think it’s reasonable to highlight that TGRs word is never ever followed through on.

Take the last update in August… it stressed that although production wasn’t what they hoped ‘full scale mining operations were commenced at Vatomina from 28th July’ and ‘steady state 24/7 production has been on going since 6th August 2024, with production of 165 tons in seven consecutive working days’

So to find out that in over two months since there’s been just 620 tons produced *is* dire. It’s a fall to less than 80T per week.

Every target gets revised down even with the full knowledge of the cash constraints when setting that new revised target.

That’s why I think it’s reasonable to acknowledge that once again the claims in this rns sound uber positive (re ME sov fund, re strategic investor, re a trade finance deal) but it’s important to also focus on the hard facts ie the numbers.

VAT refund is a positive, especially the higher amount in Oct, but we have to also note that the first CLN matures at the end of December and TGR need to find almost £1m, otherwise those CLN holders will drag the company into administration.

It’s now or never to deliver.

Q3 is certainly going to be well below Q4 but still think we’ll see something like 19k then 26k and a similar number when it comes to actual gold sold.

The next update isn’t going to set the market alight but would like to hear Segun talking bullishly re dividends or buybacks in any follow up interview or investor meet though.

Time the market woke up to just how much cash generation is going on right now.

It’s very hard to trust TGR management anymore but the things they are saying here are very good.

The actual delivery as ever is poor (production vs early August run rate)

If I was holding I’d be somewhat relieved for now though that they are starting to see VAT refunds and that they aren’t about to fold.

Ps it’s a weird thing to say that a company that’s about to pay off the last of their senior debt facility, only has accounts payable to service and has a sizeable net asset position whilst generating boatloads of cash per month are somehow needing to focus on survival.

If you stuck with your narrative you’d have more credibility but really you’re just an irritating troll pure and simple.

An apology for your incorrect claim last week that Hannam had lowered the broker target price wouldn’t go amiss.

I agree. In my opinion it should be a tool left in the back pocket to reward long suffering shareholders ie if by the end of the year if the share price hasn’t budged initiate that 10% dividend - we’d only be talking $13m at this level and we’d still be in a positive net cash position with cash continuing to flow in.

If the share price has already recovered by then best to direct as much as possible towards MLE and Douta.

THX could dish out a 1.6p dividend early next year, a 10% return for those buying in today, and it would be barely five weeks worth of free cash flow.

Well we’re now at the point, with gold above $2600/oz and the fall in share price where the forward PE is ~ 1X.

From this point to the end of 2025 there will be more net profit generated than the current valuation and then there will still be a good few more years at Segilola before we even talk other projects.

Silly figures but looks like it will take time for confidence to return here.

There’s not been a peep from the company in eight weeks, how come suddenly this week you’re expecting an update - a nod from the management?

Well I think production was 41k ounces in H1 and so, as of now, targeted production in H2 is 49k ounces.

Hannam is forecasting 88k with 19k in Q3 so that would give 28 in q4.

Q3 is lower largely because of this: 'This reduction comes following a fly rock incident in July and a corresponding prioritisation of the health and safety of our local community and employees as we mine in the southern areas of the pit. I'm pleased to report that nobody was injured during the incident and following a three week period of feeding lower grade than planned grade ore sourced from stockpiles to the process plant, we have returned to the original mine plan. We have also lowered our AISC guidance to below US$1,000 per oz.'