Member Info for HarChris

You are currently defending the indefensible Saluc.

Mgmt are absolutely failing to live up to promises on all counts. That can’t be disputed.

There's a large stockpile to tap into and seeing as production will be greater than 25k in Q4 it makes sense to tap hard into it in Q3. So in terms of actual revenue there shouldn't be an enormous difference between the two quarters.

It’s production not sales.

'(Its ok, so as to save some the time to post: I understand that if the SP goes down I am telling the truth, and that if it goes up I am just a fantasist.)'

Or unlike last time just share when you sold rather than waiting for share price collapse to say 'oh i actually sold for profit a fortnight ago'

Haha yeah in his Orwellian world.

Lies aren’t deramping and facts are ramping.

So after M1Rob trying hard to scare everyone last week telling this forum that Hannam have downgraded their TP for Thor from $0.49CAD to $0.42CAD it turns out to be utter tripe.

https://x.com/Smudgedann/status/1843559214041706864/photo/1

Target maintained at $0.49CAD / 28p, a little lower than Canaccord's 30p target.

This is based on a very low projected production in Q3 (weighted Q4) and nothing priced in for Douta til the PFS/bankable DFS lands, but seeing as that's a far bigger mine that should add considerable value.

The more Thor invests in Nigeria the more important they are to the economy and the more reason to handle business as professionally as possible.

Local journalists have a story to follow and will keep it going now that's all. I'm sure talks, meetings, discussions, disputes went on between the government and Segilola since day one, it's just there's a chain of events to continue publicly sharing.

I suspect there'll be nothing of note from Thor officially for a long while with the actual financials and meaty news being what matters through 2024 and into 2025.

Certainly strange that the Tsx price is going to close down on the week despite the significant uncertainty last Friday vs today.

Hey, we all know there’s no logic to this investing game in the short term!

The biggest mystery is why the institution came on board a few months ago to prolong the agony?

Okay I know they might have been banking on the bull run starting immediately but isn’t that terrible gambling by an insti?

Last quarter and the game will finally be up. What do we think Hexam, burning how much cash per month now?

I'm consistent, rightly or wrongly I do read broker notes and have parroted the 30p price target on here a few times (Canaccord). I've been waiting for broker upgrades if anything as the numbers being delivered are being exceeded right now.

A downgrade because of the largely incorrect press speculation and an eventual $61k payout would be disappointing to me if so, but I've still not seen any sign of it it so I'll await the note before commenting further.

Genghis I'm pretty sure we're in agreement and that's why I have said it might take a bit of time for the dust to settle on this episode (be it a couple of weeks or a couple of months) but as time goes by and the cash piles up the average person on the sidelines isn't going to simply avoid avoid avoid in case something left field lands out of the blue, especially if there's been no signs of any new developments and the investment case is improving (think multijurisdiction derisking).

It's only been two days.

I've asked for a link to the note yes because there's nothing on Research Tree, where as far as i'm aware they all get uploaded to.

I've seen no updated broker note from Hannam and Partners with a cut in TP, care to share it?

I can't imagine they've downgraded due to a $61k payout. Thor cash generation is already running above their forecasts that come out at 30p share price.

You could argue that about absolutely any company operating anywhere (windfall taxes out of the blue here, for example) and certainly for almost all gold miners in the sort of jurisdictions they operate in.

The more Thor makes the safer the investment. As an absolutely (and unrealistic) worst case the Nigerian government could shut down the mine, they can’t confiscate the cash in the accounts or seize assets from different jurisdictions (Senegal, Ivory Coast) and there’s absolutely no benefit to them doing this.

So realistically a worst case is they come looking for larger amounts further down the line but if this instance is anything to go by they soon backed down when Thor stood their ground so I’d take some comfort in that.

Corruption is rife but having tens of millions and eventually hundreds of millions in your accounts sure does help counter it.

Certainly by late Nov we should have the financials for Q3 and the Douta PFS.

It’ll take more than a few days for the dust to settle but even a few weeks should make a big difference.

Time + Segilola drill results + q3 results + Douta PFS this time next month and I’m hoping share price will be at all time highs.

I think the jurisdiction risk is well overblown, it’s being priced as if Thor is operating out of Russia and is about to have its assets seized.

The reality? It’s been nothing but smooth sailing for the first two and a half years operation followed by a short uncertain event that culminated in a $60k tax cost. Hardly a big deal set against the tens of millions of $$$ that Thor are saving through Nigeria’s five year tax holiday scheme.

Thor were able to raise large amounts of both debt and equity in order to fund a first of its scale gold mine in Nigeria.That was then the risk was at the highest and it's certainly not something I'd have invested in at the time but they pulled it off and are now reaping the rewards.

The time to be concerned is not when they've successfully raised the funds, developed the mine, paid it off within three years of the initial five year mine life and are now progressing with plans to extend said mine life and develop a second mine in a different jurisdiction.

The risk now is magnitudes lower than it was ten years ago, five years and even two years ago.

A reminder after a thoroughly frustrating couple of days that today marks the start of Q4 and gold is at $2660/oz.

It looks likely that we will see weighting towards Q4 this half year with something like 23500 ounces produced in Q3 and 26000 ounces in Q4 with what is now a $300/oz higher gold price.

Yes there's some hedging to factor in but all things being equal Q4 can generate close to $35m FCF, let that sink in against today's market cap of $135m.

Well THX will be accumulating $10m per month cash to deal with any further shakedowns and seeing as $60k put this one to bed I’m sure they’ll have the bank balance to deal with any further issues.

Give it a few years and they’ll be operating across numerous countries too so all those concerned about Nigeria will be able to sleep easy.