Member Info for HarChris

I like that management haven't felt the need to rush out an update on the committee hearing this time around. Likely they consider the sums involved immaterial ($2m is barely one week's FCF) and so they can take their time to put out a comprehensive response that puts the whole matter to bed.

A release next week could time perfectly with the plethora of news items likely to follow in November and December.

A month ago BTC was $60.8k, today it is $69k - a rise of about 14%. Accounting for the next adjustment in a few days time difficulty will have increased beteeen 15% and 20%.

Argo are going to make LESS rev going forward than before, at $70k.

Only those with a HODL are benefiting currently.

No worries, I like the discussion.

As it happens I may place a tad most trust in the legal process but generally i'm more optimistic than you because I don't necessarily think the State officials will have greater sway with the federal officials than Thor's own directors. Luke pointed out below that there are two 'local bigwigs' on the board, we should remember that the majority of Thor's directors either have strong Nigerian connections or are Nigerians themselves... they aren't faceless Westeners operating from thousands of miles away.

If you look at the way Thor escalated this to the federal government immediately it is somewhat suggestive that they have healthier ties with the government than the state officials which bodes well for us and our investment.

BMN failed because Fortune took on huge debt and totally fu**ed up on the execution at a time when vanadium price sunk and was unable to bail him out.

I don’t see the parallels here, AV aside. If anything you would hope Viljoen has learnt not to repeat the mistakes of Mojapelo and you can see that in the piecemeal and more conservative approach he is taking.

The biggest risks for any company like this is an unsupportive commodity backdrop and high debt. Right now we are seeing a highly supportive tin market and debt is modest, with Viljoen partnering rather than taking on all the risk himself like what happened with BMN.

It wasn’t long ago that we’d have been delighted seeing the gold price hit $2000/oz… now we aren’t too far off seeing the gold price $2000 greater than Thor’s AISC. A margin of $200/oz - it’s obscene.

I remain convinced that in the not too distant future this current debacle will be behind us and the above will be the focus alongside the slew of rns’ we are expecting.

Hexam, this still attracts a handful of gamblers but in truth nothing like in the past.

You have to wonder what the current cash position is... The interims showed $4m cash as of June 30th. They then raised $8.4m gross ($8m net?) post period and also paid off $5.7m of the Galaxy loan so left with an additional $2.3m giving $6.3m. Four months have passed... We don't know the exact cash burn but if it's closer to $1.5m than $1m then they'll currently be on fumes and be out of cash before year end. At best cash runway to January.

Why are you intentionally twisting my words? I have never said such a thing, I have said that the statements from the federal government up until now have been sensible which gives me hope. I do think it's wrong of you to totally dismiss the nation's highest executive as totally lawless though.

I have also focused on what the Osun state claims was the outcome from the committee report, an outcome that they are celebrating as a win but is essentially loose change for THX (4 days free cash flow and a 0.8% dilution).

Nigeria might not be the safest of jurisdictions but the government is desperate to attract foreign investment. It is not in their interest to act in a way that will send Thor exiting Nigeria as well as scare off future investment.

Again, up until now, what's been said by the federal government has come across sensible and professional. I believe it's highly unlikely that any action taken will see THX's valuation still here at $130m once the dust has settled.

I do think it’s also reasonable to highlight that TGR needs close to £1m just to cover their latest debt maturity at the end of 2024.

TGR do not have the luxury of time on their side, they need a financing deal and soon.

No Genghis, some of us are focusing on what has been said in the Osun state statement… as I keep repeating history shows us that they tend to hyperbolise and it appears they are claiming a ‘successful’ outcome and may be receiving $2m and 5m shares.

So if that is indeed the worst case we can suck that up as investors knowing that THX will have generated more than that this week. Yes they’ll likely keep kicking up a fuss but what matters is the decision the federal government come to.

I know you keep doubting the integrity of the Federal government but everything we’ve heard from their end so far has been sensible with a focus on boosting Nigeria’s image as an attractive destination for FDI. There is therefore a potentially big cost to them acting against THX in this instance.

Considering there’s no financing or partnership news attached today and yet no major fall in the share price who else thinks it’s now been pushed down about as far as it can?

Would expect this to be the floor now and for it to build with anticipation of that partnership inevitably landing in the weeks/months ahead.

Poor critical reasoning to read my summary and conclude I’m desperate for an entry!

I think my summary is reasonable. New mgmt has done incredibly well to keep Argo on life support but the end is nigh.

The only chance of survival now into 2025 is a $30m+ raise and a renewal of the hosting agreement. It’s a huge ask and highly unlikely to happen.

@BBN the committee has made their verdict and obviously there wasn’t the evidence to side with the state on the environmental angle. Thor has already refuted all the claims previously .

Sure the state will probably keep going at it but proving retrospectively that regulations were ignored, to a sensible federal government, won’t be easy.

I expect an RNS soon from THX which will draw a line under this. And then focus can return to all the upcoming catalysts.

Argo has no bitcoin so really what matters to them is whether or not they are actually generating more revenue now. And are they?

Barely. Bitcoin difficulty at a new all time high and projected to rise another 7% at the next adjustment. Still burning $1m+ a month at $71k. Will need BTC to exceed $100k at this rate just to break even. And then still all they have is rapidly aging machines that need full replacement just to continue to break even… if they are able to renew the hosting agreement.

They’re a gonner

Yes it’s clear that traders are staying on the sidelines until a line is drawn under this but it’s also patently clear that the Federal government isn’t the state government, everything we’ve heard from them has been sensible and reasonable.

It appears from the Osun statement that they will get something (small) but that bigger numbers they were throwing out will be dismissed. I’m sure they will continue to mouth off about hypothetical sums for environmental damage but unless there’s any sign that the Federal government is listening it will be nothing but hot air.

Gold mining isn’t green, it never was and never will be. As long as Thor can prove they are following standard regulations and doing their best to minimise environmental damage nothing will come of this.

In the meantime at current gold price Thor are taking in $millions every single week. $3m+ - the dust will settle on this in the coming weeks and focus will return to the financial reality.

A little more patience needed.

Last post on this but my general point is this:

We’ve come to learn that what comes out of the State official communications is always heavily biased, so much so that it’s reasonable to assume that any outcome they claim is the very worst case scenario. And if the above is the worse case scenario then we as shareholders will be just fine.

Who else thinks Thor might be holding back on positive news until a line has been drawn on this ?

It would be utterly stupid to raise £50m from a LD and then immediately deploy most of it in clearing the CLN.

Instead just pay the CLN in cash each quarter or even shares if the SP is back above £1 and use the money to make operational progress.

If the SP was higher and there were only 3m shares being issued to Heights each quarter (with some quarters paid in cash) it would be far less of drag.

These statements and reports never offer a response from Thor itself, always just Osun’s position without any chance for rebuttal.

But in the end of the day THX is currently generating an extra $35m or so a year thanks to the tax holiday, this year, the next and the one after.

In that context $2m cash and 5m shares doesn’t change the investment case.

Good result yes but mighty annoying that they feel the need to jump the gun on every announcement.

I’m not personally interested in what the Osun state officials have to say - if we’ve learnt anything it’s that they are quite comfortable posting any old nonsense online and reporters will happily follow up with a story without any due diligence.

I’ll wait for news from Thor itself. Or the Federal government