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Just to be clear I mean THXs current margin ($1700/oz) now exceeds the price of gold back two years ago.

For the entirety of 2022 the margin seen was $670/oz.

Yet the share price was 17p.

It’s frustrating that we’re even talking higher gold prices when the margin is at unprecedented levels as it is, yet without fanfare.

How about this for a stat… Two years ago today the gold price was $1680/oz. Today's margin therefore exceeds the POG of two years ago. THX share price two years ago? 17p.

We don’t need $3000/oz - share price should be easily double where it is even if at $2500/oz.

You’re simply sensitive to the current Thor environment at this point so consider the timing of the below article as relevant but it’s not, there are articles like this every single week.

There’s a huge difference between illegal and legal gold mining.

Not me, I’ve been highlighting that after this year there will be ~240k ounces left at Segilola before we talk extension - so at a bare minimum $270m FCF at a $1100/oz margin (I suspect more).

Highly likely to be at least 150k additional ounces added soon although Segan has spoke of 5 years+ potential to be added once the wider tenement is properly explored.

That’s true but if you take that bet today and BTC doesn't break ATHs within two months you likely lose your entire capital here.

And even if you do buy here and Argo starts pumping you’ll need to exit rapidly or you’ll get caught on the wrong side of a desperately needed discounted placing.

So the risk/reward isn’t favourable although appealing to high risk gamblers.

So what’s better value? THX a year ago at 15.5p or today at 14.75p?

I would argue those buying this day last year were taking on a lot more risk. Debt was $28m with net debt at $19.3m and with gold below $2000/oz any weakening would have made it unlikely that the senior debt facility could be paid down without some sort of equity raise alongside, in order to have enough working capital to continue to make progress on multiple fronts alongside.

The debt risk is now eliminated, the net debt figure has swung to net cash positive (to be confirmed in financial update) and we are now in a position where gold could retrace 20% and THX would still be throwing off huge amounts of cash with more than $1000/oz margin.

And whilst a year ago the Douta PFS was expected in q1 2024 and nobody likes delays, we are closer to that landing than we were a year ago, with it expected within two months now.

The value on offer is insane at $2700/oz with so many catalysts due imminently.

I wonder if Segun has decided to get all the bad news out now so that they can then build momentum going forward? Who’s to say we won’t still see 88k ounces produced and hence only a modest missing of the guidance and therefore it being a choice rather than an obligation to issue a downgrade?

Momentum could really motor from here. First a positive result from the senior committee discussing the recent State Government interventions, followed by further positive Segilola drilling results, then Douta PFS and then q4 / full year results that show a beating of the new revised guidance. All against such a bullish gold backdrop.

What a difference three months could make.

I don't believe we'll get Douta drill results anymore, the next update will be the PFS which is due this quarter.

Here's a simple way to look at the sheer undeniable undervaluation.

By the end of 2024 THX will be sitting on ~$20m positive net cash. They will then have ~240k ounces left to produce from the original mine plan meaning they will (conservatively, as costs remain low through this period) generate twice the current mcap from those proven reserves alone. Not including the ounces found from the satellite deposits. Not including any extra from MLE. This without Douta in the picture.

There are so few scenarios where THX could be valued lower in twelve months time than it is today yet to the upside if everything comes together we could easily be talking $500m mcap.

At what price would Argo break even at a cash level now? $85k BTC?

It’s still curtains by the end of the year unless BYC absolutely pops

Well said Loudspeaker, some very good posts on here today.

A reminder that forecast (30p TP) for 2024 was 95k oz at $1200/oz generating $55m net profit whereas we are actually looking at more like ~$100m net profit for the year.

Additionally we’ll now be looking at a greater production figure next year than previously forecast and POG is likely to far exceed the previously guided $2170/oz.

With compelling economics at Douta even modest MLE at Segilola makes this a future $500m+ mcap company

Fair play for what was a detailed and robust response.

That graphite link is very useful, i'll be using that going forward. But you have to recognise that the peers with a sky high valuation relative to TGR that are pre-production are also sitting on huge cash piles. Some of them have $100m of cash whilst TGR limps along with less cash than most of us have in our ISAs... If TGR fails to pull off adequate debt financing then they will have to dilute to oblivion to matching some of these balance sheets.

That, alongside difficult to service near term debt is the reason TGR is valued where it is today. The risk of failure is high.

Whilst I agree that 95k-100k oz wasn't conservative the downgrade is completely explainable, i.e the fly rock incident and the other reasons given in the RNS today. 95k-100k WAS achievable but yes i'd prefer more cautious forecasts that can be beaten all being well.

As THX is essentially debt free and now has all the cash it needs for near term exploration it really doesn't matter if those ounces are dug up and sold in 2024 or early 2025.

Three months ago we were expecting ~95k ounces at an AISC of ~$1150, now we're expecting 85k ounces at ~$875/oz. That's about 10% reduction in production and close to 25% decline in costs.

Margin is far improved and POG has risen $280/oz over the same period. Plus that gold is still in the ground so production will likely be higher next year at a record gold price.

This business has never been healthier.

I think you might be reading too much into it. The op updates are always factual and to the point.

The facts are there in the numbers. Yes never nice to see a downgrade but 85k oz at @~$850/oz aisc is printing money. That means a margin of at least $1300/oz for the year and likely more.

As adw points out if POG remains this high into 2025 alongside other catalysts this isn’t staying at such a depressed valuation - but will take a bit more time.

It’s fair to say the whole industry is on its knees though, not just TGR. You only need to have a read across from other companies like Norther Graphite to see this - produced 4100T in q2, far higher than Tirupati yet have a mcap of just $6m. Why? Even worse debt position.

Yesterday ACP announced they were delisting from AIM and almost all other peers are at / around all time low.

BRES appears to be the one exception at the moment and has the best chance of being successful.

I do hope it’s emphasised just how weighted the second half of the year will be towards Q4 - with POG comfortably above $2600/oz throughout (so far) it could mean as much as $35m cash generation that quarter.

With enough sold this quarter in Q3 it’ll also be well above $20m… not bad for a company valued at just $130m.

Who are the peers double TGRs valuation and five years from production? Do they have debt that is maturing in the near term? I doubt it.

The valuation here is due to debt maturity looming large (both December and July next year) as well as a lack of confidence in the management team. It doesn't matter about the fundamentals, if you don't trust the management to execute successfully / have to cover the company's debt obligations first and foremost then you will find that factored in.

In the meantime TGR remain a cash burning entity just about surviving with management unable to pay themselves and instead forced to prop up the company with director loans.

And the year before the 11th Oct. Any almost every quarterly op update released by the 18th of the following month so yeah highly likely this week.

Won’t tell us loads but as I said earlier a reiteration of guidance will give certainty to the huge cash generation we’re all expecting.