Member Info for HarChris

There's already new leadership, John Wood has gone.

Nobody thinks his leave of absence is temporary.

There's never anywhere close to a full turnout when it comes to any vote. 95m shares in issue and total votes cast will probably end up around 60m so 45m shares supporting delisting will do it.

Most will vote for what directors have unanimously recommended.

BMN took on a ton of debt in order to build multiple revenue streams and expand production by ~25% with a goal of reducing all in sustaining costs by ~25% and an aim to fund the mining side through internal cash generation going forward - Fortune failed on all fronts.

ATM has taken on debt but far more modest in order to expand production ~40% which if successful will reduce AISC by ~25%. Also the current AISC which still sees margin at $30k (+~25% hedged at $33k) includes a sizeable royalty to Orion so debt is being paid off whilst still seeing some margin.

Vanadium price has been well below Bushveld's AISC price since 2019... it would take much lower tin prices and significant failures in execution re the CI2 expansion plan to end up in a similar position to Bushveld a couple of yearss down the road.

Same here John. Been watching for a while and ready to take a position but was slightly put off by the ridiculous spread today. Maybe tomorrow.

Harl is a growing business and has not been placed into administration so your example isn't very relevant. It may end up that way but this is a listed company that can raise money on the open market and potentially borrow more to stay in operation.

A large placing for example would be painful and magnify the number of shares in issue but it would keep Harl trading alongside debt financing.

Outlook is bleak for shareholders but they have a legitimate reason to hold out some hope still.

Well the share price has risen from 40p to 72p off the back of 80m volume - perhaps they are buying in now and we're just waiting for the announcements?

''i think it is more of a case that many hoped that the govt would support a company that was indirectly doing important work for the company. they were not asking for funding - just a guarantee that would enable a loan to transition the company. the idea with the loans is they would move to be self sufficient and not cost the tax payer.''

_____________

To me CS it sounds far more that the government believes that Harland and Wolff will survive without their guarantee and hence all the EDG facility would do is protect shareholders and protect commercial lenders rather than save jobs.

H&W will survive but shareholders won't be left with much - All the blame lies at the door of JW as far as i'm concerned, he's failed shareholders miserably.

Also Oliver many like myself were very open about the risks, particularly re the dispute. We had loaded up prior to the outcome because we thought NCYT were in a position to claw back money that they were owed but unfortunately that wasn't the case.

As it happens the result was not the worst case scenario and ncyt live to fight another day. On that news many will have sold and moved on, others like me will be looking for a slightly better price to begin exiting/reduce.

The moaning on here really is so juvenile.

Nonsense grc08, the poster in question raised some legitimate questions, yes. In response some of the more researched and clued up investors stepped in to respond to them and then said questioner refuses to take any of the answers on board.

Either because of stupidity or bad intention the poster fails to move on when their questions are satisfactorily answered, instead deflecting and attempting to raise some other issue.

Seeing as your account was freshly created to make that comment let's hope you aren't TO073 under a second alias.

'Absolutely correct with what you write every time' - really? That poster has continually predicted 10p a share and never been right about it. How about this one from Oct 2023 with the share price at 43p - 'Will stand by my 10p SP price before DHSC ruling10 .'

From 43p it was actually higher pre ruling than when he made his 10p prediction.

Whilst the accounts payable figure looks big it's comforting that the auditors signed off the accounts as a going concern using a gold price forecast as low as $1950/oz. Gold price YTD is $2270 so that's a clear $310/oz difference and at 95k ounces that's a $30m safety net. And of course that YTD price rises by the day at current prices.

Fair enough but nobody sensible tried to claim that the $632 AISC in Q1 was in any way relevant, it was clearly an anomaly as would $1400/oz be. It all comes out to be ~$1150 over the course of the twelve months.

Q2 might not completely flip the dial but gold did average $2340/oz across the three months, that's going to have helped Segun clean up the balance sheet.

It's a pretty baseless conclusion when the CEO and CSO have been in their positions for just three months with a court trial slapped bang in the middle of those three months.

Have to offset it with accounts receivable (admittedly modest) and inventory but yeah some of that cash will go towards working that down.

Still, THX will have a fantastic balance sheet by the end of the year with two more years of the original mine life to make hay with no tax to pay, before the extension - the interims next month will give us a much clearer picture.

I wouldn’t bother trying to forecast AISC each quarter, it’s too variable based on numerous factors. What matters is the net result over twelve months - POG is now closing in on $2300/oz YTD and rising. Let’s be highly conservative and assume POG averages $2300/oz for the year and use $1200/oz aisc for the year and 92k ounces produced giving $101m cash generation. Minus $24m so the senior debt facility is paid off leaving $77m cash in the coffers minus exploration activities.

Like you say, a cash machine. Hit 95k ounces and lower end cost guidance and those numbers improve further.

A good investment is as much about the downside risk as it is the upside potential. At the turn of the year THX were sitting on only a modest amount of cash with $24m debt to pay down over the twelve months ahead. The gold price was $2050 but was seesawing and had as recently as a few months before been as low as $1800/oz.

With significant drilling planned for 2024 there was obviously debt-related risk at the start of the year. Yes the outlook for POG was positive but it's never a guarantee and if instead POG had taken a nosedive shareholders would have been subjected to an equity raise to meet those debt obligations/drilling activities, likely below 10p a share.

What has happened since has significantly derisked the investment now. The leach circuit tank upgrade hadn't completed in Q1 and so THX have been fortunate that the lowest production (and sales) coincide with the lower gold price and now at $2400/oz THX will be throwing off much big numbers.

Yes we will need the other catalysts to play out positively to see the sort of upside of 30p+ we're all here for but just as importantly the biggest downside risk, the senior debt facility, has now been taken care of (THX turning net cash positive now) and that fact shouldn't be ignored.

Me too Luke. I have been here a long time and posted thousands of times across stocks and have only two usernames filtered. This one I made a third when it became clear that no answer would satisfy them and responding would only lead to furthering the dishonest psuedo-intellectual debate.

Luke it all got weird here in the blink of an eye.

Probably going to have to just suck it up or find another forum until the q3 results come out and put all this nonsense to bed.

BBNs explanation yesterday as to why 95k ounces is realistic still is an important read. Personally it was enough for me, knowing Segun, to trust that if guidance is still maintained in mid July then at the very least the miss will be small.

We’re looking at 50k+ ounces in h2 at an historically high margin - this really is the time to be patient, ignore the noise and wait for it all to play out through the rest of 2024 with the abundance of news we are expecting alongside.

Oldfortyniner, you may have confused my comments about the requisitioners (Isabel, Murat, Leo, Mark) with all those that voted for them. I’m saying the former spoke so badly of Shishir and his total incompetence that you would expect they would be itching to sell at the first opportunity rather than wait (based on their own reasoning) for this to go to zero after the financing falls through.

To be fair though it’s possible they are selling out or are already out. They themselves only owned about 6.8m shares and volume has been higher than that since.

No I’m afraid that’s not how certain investors trade. If they believe the company is about to go ti*s up they sell into any volume they can, they don’t hold on for dear life just because they are underwater, risking a big fat zero next to their investment.

Of course some do you, like you, but it’s a losing strategy long term.