Member Info for HarChris

Abdx's year runs from June to June.

Tomorrow we should get the latest monthly CPO update, let's hope we see the local selling price trending up towards the international price.

Something else I forgot to share - I messaged Youval a month ago to see if I could glean any info relating to the new cashew equipment arriving in June. His reply was that yes the equipment would be arriving from June onwards in a number of shipments, installed upon arrival and fully operational in August... If that's still the case it wouldn't be too bad.

He also confidently and unequivocally stated that Capro will be a success and be profitable.

Sure but how often is a positive trajectory on small cap AIM stocks flagged only for them to go on to underdeliver? All. the. time. Expecting more than 50% growth half year on half year seems a bit ambitious to me.

As for the market reaction, well, 'sell the news' has become fixed in the minds of traders but hopefully the growth here, something I'm not seeing matched all that much across AIM, will bring new investment in in the days ahead.

A little disappointed with today's update? Really?! This from the interims:

' The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024. As a result, FY 2024 revenues are expected to be materially higher than FY 2023 revenues of £4.0m.

· The primary objective of the Board remains to move the Company to a breakeven and cash flow positive position which it forecasts will be achieved in 2024 without the need for additional funding. '

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H2 revenue significantly improved vs H1? Yes, 55%.

FY revenues materially higher than £4.0m? Yes, £6.1m, 52%

Primary objective of cash flow positive during 2024 without the need for further funding? Yes, achieved for the entire last quarter and with plenty of cash in the bank.

Considering they needed to project a bullish outlook in case the above wasn't achieved and a swift raise was needed this far exceeds any expectations I had and hence I was on the sidelines until today.

Yeah I'm sure we discussed this before - I'm speaking from the view of the requisitioners genuinely believing what they claimed re Shishir being totally incompetent and untrustworthy but if they hold on through it'll be proof that they were at least grossly exaggerating their views in order to take control of the company.

Price action has been rather positive since the recent finance update, no doubt about that.

They won’t benefit from a low share price but I assume what Mhow is saying is that they’ll likely sell into any rise, making a proper move north very difficult.

If they truly believe there’s no future under Shishir then they’ll sell whenever there is the liquidity to do so, as was probably the case last week.

The reality is a ~£40m cash position when all is said and done and so 40 months cash runway if absolutely no improvement is assumed.

If that were to be the case then obviously this will be a failure but as an investment case one should look at it as 4-5 years to reach profitability as revenue growth will reduce cash burn along the way.

No guarantees but I’d rather be in this position than one that requires instant and significant operational improvement .

It's amazing how certain posters ramble away on here day in day out when they think they have a fearful captive audience only to disappear in an instant the moment sentiment returns- truly spineless.

These leases were quite clearly taken out pre acquisition...

Well I've bought - I can't see how this doesn't blast past 52 week highs when management have delivered exactly what they promised four months ago, something that's so rare on AIM at the moment.

Only a passive observer here but this should certainly put a discounted placing to bed - you'd think now any raise if it were to happen would occur at a higher price and be very much for growth.

Will try and get a few shares on open if i'm lucky!

That's what makes the lack of share price appreciation YTD even more extreme. Back then the gold price was ~$2040/oz and any retrace back to the recent October low of $1850/oz and those liabilities you were talking about might just have started to cause a problem - instead gold price has strengthened ever since with an average of $2200/oz YTD and rising every day as these record prices continue. We've just seen a quarter with as much as $29m to be posted with Q3 starting in the same vein and yet today the share price is just 3.65% up ytd and 40% off the 52 wk highs.

Hell of a lot of catching up to do.

This is right in Siemens Gamesa and Mistral's ballpark - a huge growing opportunity in the UK and should help sentiment too.

Given the type of bloke he appears to be and how highh is salary is I'm certain he'll be purchasing shares - the question is more how many? Will it be a token gesture or a proper statement of intent.

Bear in mind Rees received £108k in 2023 despite only joining in September as an executive director - I imagine he's now on £400k+ a year.

In the most recent IMC meeting Rees made it clear that M&A was unlikely in the short-medium term. The focus is on tighter cost control and turning what is this Yourgene-Novacyt merger into a cash flow positive business.

That is what will bring the biggest returns here - adding to the acquisition pile whilst burning through ~£5m-£10m a year will run the risk of requiring a placing in the years ahead which will create even more investor fear and uncertainty.

The big challenge is convincing the money men that their cash will bring them returns. That's an incredibly difficult challenge when you've had director after director resign and a number of them coming together and attempting to unseat you whilst airing all that's been wrong with the management publicly. Additionally the track record of significant overpromising and underdelivering makes it doubly as hard for Shishir to attract the necessary investment now (and is why he's having to personally guarantee future loans now).

It feels to me that funding will need to come via equity / VAT rebates first, followed by a period of better execution and delivery before sizeable debt financing is back on the table - that means at best quite a substantial delay to any meaningful expansion and further dilution before a return to any sort of tangible growth.

It's not impossible for a turnaround here but the odds are stacked against the company now.

Seeing as the share price has fallen 65% since the JV agreement was announced in 2023 and sitting almost 30% below the placing price with the threat of a cash call now behind them it seems a strange time to advise others to sell to chase a perceived bottom a tad below where we are now.

Let's remember that recently the biggest complaint on here was giving out warrants to the placees at 3p, that's now a 130% rise away. I certainly don't want to miss that.

True, August and November are what we're looking at for the hard numbers but the ops update in the next week or so should be enough to get more eyes in this direction - especially as there's a lot of news signposted for H2 this year.

Lithium drilling results in the 'next few weeks', Segilola drilling results, commencement of underground drilling programme, updated MRE at Douta and then PFS.

This from March 3rd: Discussions that are well-progressed to this end are:

' Recent meetings with the Madagascar Government for the release of VAT refunds of c. $2m have further added confidence that these will be returned to the Company imminently;'

'Establishment of working capital facilities from the Company's bankers in Madagascar being progressed supported by a personal guarantee being agreed to be provided from the Executive Chairman'

'Due diligence work continues with DFI's for funding the expansion of the Company's effective production at Madagascar first to 36,000tpa in the near term and then to 54,000tpa thereafter through the addition of a new 18,000 tpa module.'

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Over four months now with barely a penny in the bank and still none of the above have been achieved yet some on here adamantly argue that TGR remains on a strong growth trajectory.

Well it wouldn’t have been possible to press on with an all VRFB long duration policy, that would require tens of GWhs of batteries per year straight off the bat - there wouldn’t be the supply of vanadium for that.

A gradual phase out of lithium or a tightening of restrictions re location, size etc would have the effect of boosting Vrfbs year on year and allowing supply to keep pace somewhat - a more realistic direction.