Oil and gas demand projection11 May 2022 10:39
Good analysis by Mount Teide on advfn (8.49).
I would add, though, this excludes Black Swan events. My somewhat outlier analysis of global politics, or doomsday events, goes something like this:
a) The West is bankrupt; and at the very least, we can see our economies overtaken by the BRICS nations. The dollar will lose its reserve status. Expect a deep recession in the West. There will need to be a switch to unbacked Central Bank Digital Currency, and totalitarian control of all money.
b) For the West to maintain its standard of living to anything like today's level, pay pensions, health, education etcetera, to avoid uprisings/revolution, there will need to be a massive depopulation in the West. (See 2017 Deagle.com population forecasts for 2025 - just 15 million for the UK).
c) The West has been pushing for the war in Ukraine. They (US/GB, in particular) intend to attack Russia and capture Russia's resources. To do this Ukraine will soon be brought into the fold of the EU and Nato; then an 'incident' will be arranged to declare war. Nuclear weapons may well be used. This, too, is a warning to China. World War Three may be coming in the next year or two. This is known as the Thucydides Trap. The declining power attacks the rising power/s to maintain its status as top dog.
d) The West can maintain itself as top dog if there is One World Government.
Not very cheerful prognosis - from an investment point of view not much can be done. It will be a car crash for all. Therefore just carry on buggering on. And fight the good fight where you can.
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