Member Info for happysparrow

Yes, I was being optimistic, Blakie.
This was from 4th May RNS:
'Empyrean is currently considering its alternatives to funding the Topaz prospect drill and is preparing a work program that it believes can see the Topaz well drilled within the next drilling weather window in the Pearl River Mouth Basin in 1H 2023'.
My point is that I can't see there is much else left to be done once the post-drill analysis and migration study is done this May. Admittedly typhoon season is Q3. However, is this enough to stop them? If there is a drilling slot available, my hope is it will get done as soon as we are funded - and RNS suggests to me that perhaps they are expecting this by end of July, with GSA, then sale of Mako perhaps days after.
Too optimistic?

I guess they intend to drill Topaz Q3 2022 if the migration study is good (completed end of May).

Useful summary of taxes:
https://newsday.co.tt/2022/04/14/how-does-tt-earn-revenue-from-oil-and-gas/

One reason there should not be delay on Coho or EIA for Cascadura:
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/bptt-suffers-setback-hurts-natural-gas-production-6.2.1480987.803dd2e7c0

Of interest - perhaps alluding to SPT reform?
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/ttngl-profits-soar-in-2021-6.2.1482588.e5515fc1a7
'... “And of course we have the challenge of understanding what is taking place on the upstream and therefore, what the commitments are for the petrochemical sector,” Enill explained.
He also noted that “at this point in time,” there are conversations taking place and matters being finalised.
However, he said according to the information available to him progress is being made, noting that some announcements are expected to be made with respect to those matters.
Pressed further whether he could say more on those investment decisions, Enill said there are currently being discussed with the Government and the multinationals.'

Also TXP a 'gold sponsor' - out to influence, hopefully. Prime Minister and Energy Minister will be there as speakers. Will not look good for these politicians if Coho and EIA are still being waited on.

And maybe we will see the bid round results announced soon?
https://www.energy.gov.tt/for-investors/2021-onshore-competitive-bid-round/
I guess we are going for Guayaguayare.

Xavier Moonan one of the speakers (31st May - June 2nd):
https://energynow.tt/ttenergyconference2022#ttenergyconference-agenda-2022

If there are to be further delays to Coho / EIA these have often been signaled beforehand in newspaper articles or social media to lower expectations. There has been none of this this time, so perhaps all running to schedule - Coho online next week, EIA soon after, + drill programme starts?
Again, fingers crossed.

https://2b1stconsulting.com/cnooc-to-develop-together-china-liuhua-16-2-and-liuhua-11-1/
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1230292.shtml

https://www.empyreanenergy.com/project/china-block-2911-project/
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Location-of-the-study-area-in-the-Baiyun-Sag-the-South-China-Sea-and-multibeam-image-of_fig1_345344791

It is clear that this participation can only be funded by Duyung sale, or farm out (industry), or equity swap for debt financing (unlikely). I think Duyung sale and/or CNOOC taking a larger stake may be the way forward. This needs to be done by 1H2024 (2023 preferable). Lengthy discussions will now take place. I would expect Duyung sale news to be within the next 3 months (and those who sell now will miss out on that large jump); equity stake within 6. Thus I can see this share price being 3 times higher or more before the Topaz drill.
A definite hold for me.

Well summarised, Scott. Agree with all of that.
Paul is a likeable fellow, but shareholders have had more than enough. The market reaction could be harsh if he fails to deliver again. Less than 3 weeks to go now (London presentation 21st May - will need to report Coho online at the very least). It might help our confidence to hear he is currently out in Trinidad rallying the troops, and pressuring NGC/Shell/contractors doggedly. All I see on twitter is people (his daughter?) digging a garden. A photo of Paul and Mr Young signing a document, or cutting a tape, would not go amiss. Soon, please.

LV1991 - I don't think it needs them. It just needs to get on with getting things right as 'known.' Coho+EIA approval should start a steady re-rate. Large jump on successful Royston sidetrack. Even at £1.60 undervalued. £2+ by year end expected without 'unknowns' (That's assuming no heavy negatives in the markets / oilprice this remaining year). If the unknowns - the exploration - comes in, then could add another £1 easily.
Yes - optimistic here; that's why I might be disappointed.

My hope is for a considerable upward move over this summer on Coho coming online + EIA approval as, not only will this help return confidence in operating in Trinidad, but too, we should start a continuous drilling programme - which they badly need to get a move-on with:
There is nothing in the price for Royston, and that imo should radically change with a good sidetrack result. Development drilling at Coho and Cascadura too will push the price up further.
I'd be disappointed if we do not see £1.60 by August/September 2022.
But I often am.

An article from 2018 :
https://energynow.tt/blog/lack-of-progress-on-spt-reform-is-hampering-investment-in-the-oil-sector

Perhaps one reason TXP has not pushed oil production ahead of gas?
From today's TRIN RNS:
'... a number of participants have informed the Company that they are unable to fully assess the economics of the opportunity at Galeota without clarity on the expected reforms to Supplemental Petroleum Tax ("SPT"), which are currently being considered by the Government of Trinidad and Tobago ("GORTT") and which were initially expected to have been confirmed sooner than now appears likely.

Pending SPT reform, which management still expects to happen, the Company has decided to pause the Galeota farm down process. This will enable the Company to seek the best value proposition for Galeota when the GORTT's fiscal reforms have been confirmed.

The Company is hopeful that the GORTT will conclude its deliberations and provide further details on reforms to SPT in the near term and this, along with potential stabilisation of the macro environment, will enable participants to fully assess the economics of the opportunity when the farm down process recommences....'

A possible short term hike in oil price as Ukraine war spills over into Moldova?
Two views:
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Moldova-Fears-Russia-Is-Looking-To-Expand-Its-War-Beyond-Ukraine.html
https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-16/

I've mixed views on this, and I expect TXP has too. To first develop oil or gas?

My view is that the war in Ukraine will be over sometime this Summer, the Ukes defeated (though sanctions on Russia will remain for as long as the Biden govt lasts); I also see a worldwide recession looming from all that printed money coming home to roost; and a collapse of the US$ possibly. Thus I expect an oil price fall come Q4 back to $70-$80 range; and so, logically, following this thesis our priority should be to increase oil output in the short term.

However, we really need to get that gas online and developed asap which will return a lot of confidence to the business and share price - and provide a solid cashflow before, and for, further exploration.

A balancing act, inevitably. If TXP pushes hard on both fronts then, if any delays are encountered on one fuel, the other should compensate.
Either way, I expect large and constant growth in production each year for the next 3 years.
Here's hoping.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Guyana-Considers-Creating-Own-State-Owned-Oil-Company.html

Interesting post from Herman on advfn of email exchange with company. (Thank you.)
'There are some new potential changes to the drilling program. They are now considering starting with Coho, then Royston (not sure if we are only talking one or multiple wells) and then Cascadura. They do not want to disclose when they will start. As for the EIA and Coho, they still claim to be confident it will happen in May.'

Yes, likewise - watch and wait. I'd expect some strategy update within the next 2 months. Clarity should improve the price from here, with luck. I hope for 5p+ within a year (That's £33m Mkt Cap. Heresay previously was that Duyong was worth £40m+). That's 100% return from here.