Member Info for happysparrow

Some maps:

https://images.energy365dino.co.uk/standard/124980_95ab8c2882e44093a2a1.jpg

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chenglin-Gong/publication/277712933/figure/fig1/AS:294384483487748@1447198138986/a-Geological-map-of-the-Pearl-River-Mouth-Basin-showing-the-study-area-of-the-eastern.png

https://www.empyreanenergy.com/project/china-block-2911-project/

And information from CNOOC on drill areas:
https://www.cnoocltd.com/col/col7311/index.html

Noticed this too Skenny:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Offshore-Oil-Giant-Exits-Western-Markets-Over-Sanction-Fears.html

However, the upside is that they will be investing in their own domestic waters.
'Preparations for a North Sea exit are part of a new strategic shift for CNOOC, which looks to focus now on Latin American, African, and domestic offshore assets, abandoning businesses in the mature markets, according to the sources who spoke to Reuters.'
A very positive note for EME, so doesn't explain the share price weakness imo.

Agree it is economic madness, MT, but this is about politics not economics. (For who would have believed that the Tory Party would destroy our economy with Lockdowns and Furlough? - and some believe this to be deliberately so; the agenda of a globalist NWO.).
I think a Petro victory is likely (from looking at his current support). This may, for example, result in a moratorium on exploration, with the resulting shortfall in government revenue being recouped through a hefty windfall tax on production, say at $65+/bbl; and a considerable increase in production taxes generally. Getting things done may become a lot harder. Comingling, block extensions, bidding rounds, all may have problems. Money could be more difficult to raise. AXL may decide Colombia is not the place to be after all. All nightmarish scenarios, hopefully none will come about - but until Petro, for definite, says he is going to drop such a policy (a policy which is fashionable amongst much of the Western political elite, our Bunter being a case in point), his election victory is likely to have some sharp impact on AXL's share price come 29th May.
Just my take on things. I decided the risk was too high for me. No doubt I will regret it !

30m+ traded since 5th April placing; so about 15m changed hands. Placing created 65m new shares. 10m went to sticky fingers of Africa corp. Just depends on how many were bought by institutions to hold, and how many bought as surplus to sell down immediately. My guess is those that are willing to sell at 30p will be soon exhausted (mostly traders realising profits and using money elsewhere whilst placing clears?). However, will create drag on SP rise as others slowly sell at 32,33, 34 etc? Next news (further deal?) will be sold into? - but then should come a steady rise with run up to drill, we hope.

https://worldoil.com/news/2022/2/11/colombian-driller-sees-petro-s-anti-oil-plans-ending-up-in-court/

Just about to join you in what seems an excellent investment, then read this:
'Petro, campaigning under the progressive coalition Pacto Historico, lost the presidency in 2018 to right-wing President Ivan Duque. Since then he has gained traction with voters on a platform that promises to more fairly distribute wealth, curtail oil and gas extraction, use tourist revenues to replace fuel profits and implement Colombia’s stalled peace process.'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/14/colombia-elections-petro-takes-lead-congress-divided
https://time.com/6139508/gustavo-petro-anti-oil-bloc/

Election fraud is likely:
https://colombiareports.com/colombia-investigates-registrar-over-election-chaos/
https://colombiareports.com/crisis-could-break-out-in-colombia-over-election-failures/

This was the preliminaries:
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-whos-who-colombias-2022-presidential-race

My guess is that the ironically named Petro will win.
How will this affect AXL?

CM94 - WTE's JHI holdings are being acquired for about one fifth of WTE's book value. If Cataleya Energy was to go the same way, where does that leave WTE?

'On 30 June 2021, the Directors' estimate of the fair value of the Company's holding of 567,185 (2020: 567,185) shares in Cataleya was £4,105,846 (2020: £4,590,523) (£7.24 per share (2020: £8.09)).'

Thanks for the compliment, 3CB, but not an admission I was wrong on VOG - (see my posts of 18th Jan - seems I was spot on(?)). However, I get it wrong on many things. Put my VOG proceeds in TXP at 110p, which seemed a bargain, only for it to go down to 72p. Also added to WTE, which then hit by ECO getting the underlying assets at one fifth of book value. Often it seems it just comes down to luck - or is that the excuse of a bad workman?
I can still see someone making money out of VOG - the assets are considerable - (perhaps VOG/RSM agreement, perhaps taken private, perhaps takeover by Afren/Save? - who knows) - but if it comes back to market in some form, is adequately financed, and Roy Kelly is still at the helm - then I'll most likely reinvest. (Always the fool).

Sorry to read the news.
(I was very lucky to be on the sidelines, having been a keen supporter of the new VOG management).
I note: 'A large part of the Award is devoted to the treatment of the royalty payments made to Cameroon Holdings Limited ("CHL") in the calculation of the Payout date. '
Surely, this means an end to our monthly payments to CHL Holdings?
I have always argued that there should have been a clawback on CHL Holdings for any payments due to RSM. - Presumably there was something like this negotiated with Foo? I would expect CHL Holdings to pick up a large part of the bill, if not all, and not VOG.
Let's see what the lawyers can do.

' jhi was willing to merge in at third the price of the latest eco transaction.'
And if Cataleya was willing to do the same, where does that leave WTE?

Paul is going to be there by end of March. He will want to see all is getting done. And Cascadura out of the traps, too.
Can they put an extra team in, digging the trench in reverse direction too?
Perhaps April hook-up might just surprise us all.

RNS 29/10/21:
'On 30 June 2021, the Directors' estimate of the fair value of the Company's holding in JHI was £9,884,072 (2020: £6,353,344), £1.75 per share (2020: £1.78 per share)'

Today: 'Consideration in the form of new common shares issued to JHI's shareholders based on an exchange ratio of 1.1994 new Eco common shares and convertible securities leading to JHI shareholders holding approximately 34% of Eco post Acquisition at current share count'

Eco @ 29p x 1.1994 = 35p

One fifth of the 'fair value' estimate.

An over-estimate by WTE?
An exaggeration of value by JHI?
A non-market price offered between ECO/JHI?
Something smells bad to me.
Everyone else got Covid?

Please correct if wrong.

My calculation is that WTE had 5,661,270 shares in JHI x 1.1994 = 6,790,127 new ECO shares.
WTE also held 1,500,000 ECO shares.
Total = 8,290,127 shares x £0.29p = £2,404,137 market value. (about 1.67p per WTE share).

Estimated fair value in accounts at 30/06/21 for ECO shares + JHI shares = £9,884,072 + £433,000 = £10,317,572

Friday's late reported trades (sells) are notable.

I'll take that comment back.
The 1.1994 conversion does not add up well for WTE as far as I can calculate - in fact, quite badly.

Well this takes the decision of whether to be in ECO or WTE away from me.
I had wanted to increase my exposure to ECOs South Africa/Namibia blocks, so works out well for me.
WTE's share price had lost out and declined with ECOs developments in Africa and investors switching from WTE to holding ECO; that value gap should now be closed with this deal as WTE now effectively holds ECO shares. Hopefully WTE will be back to 8p+ very soon.
RNS from WTE should explain more. I think they will be pleased with today's news.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Stocks-Are-Trading-At-A-Deep-Discount-Right-Now.html

Dartron/Scott - different investment thesis and worldview here. It takes all sorts.
Yes, I've bet the farm on TXP. My view is not to diversify much, know your stocks better than most, and watch them carefully. No, I've not made my fortune - yet. Being fully in cash at certain stages would have been a good strategy, with hindsight. Metals / Crypto, the juries out. Gas/oil - well it's now the Russian oligarch's major currency; and they'll be avoiding western banks and property after this for a very long time (and so will Canadians!).
For a very different view on Ukraine I recommend the Robin Monotti 'selegram tam' channel. That may give you a different perspective on how to handle your investments (Eg Is climate change a fraud, too? Who is driving this propaganda, these 'mass psychosis' agendas, and why? What WEF scam comes next? Where will the main Davos actors invest long term? Will Russia and China play along or have they gone rogue? Taiwan, Korea ,Hong Kong and South China Sea next trouble spots? - Will this affect EME or JSE, for example? Yemen?)
Too, there, you will also find good advice on sectors to avoid (or short) - [Big Pharma, Life Assurance, Mainstream Media and Big Tech mentioned] in this post.
https://rumble.com/vwfu7j-edward-dowd-explains-bombshell-fraud-charge-re-pfizer-hiding-deaths-data.html (PS not resurrecting old arguments here - this post is about investment choices and researching political news much wider than mainstream media sources, as Edward Dowd, Blackrock manager, advises.).
Hopefully of interest to some.

Litigation: Certain of the non-monetary claims in the ICC arbitration with RSM Production Corporation ("RSM") have been settled consistent with the UNCITRAL arbitration settlement agreement, previously announced on 29 September 2021. The settled non-monetary claims resolve several prospective accounting issues.
-
Roy Kelly, Chief Executive of Victoria Oil & Gas, commented:
"I am pleased we could settle those non-monetary claims with a prospective impact in the ICC arbitration, and I am again grateful to RSM for their continued and constructive engagement on this."
-
LITIGATION UPDATE
ICC Case NO. 23991/MK
Whilst the ICC has yet to make its award, the parties have now settled the prospective non-monetary elements of the arbitration and discussions with RSM continue to resolve the monetary claims and remaining retrospective non-monetary claim.
-
This was what stands out for me. It looks like the 'award' has been shelved whilst the two parties make an amicable settlement between themselves. Perhaps a final compensatory amount will be awarded at the end of the day, perhaps it won't, but now looking less likely that this issue will bankrupt VOG. Getting back any of our large outlay on legal expenses also seems unlikely. Let's hope some certainty can be reached this quarter - it has dragged on far too long.

Agreed, Tobin. My view is that if a crash comes, there is not much way of avoiding it; so better to stick to what we know is a good place for our money in the hope that nothing untoward occurs.

More philosophically, the best investment we can make is probably in kindness, to strengthen our personal relationships, and to help others; so whenever we're on our uppers, with luck, someone might return our kindness.