Member Info for happysparrow

Agree, Zeusfuria. Too, it is the xmas period. but good news today that the wait is almost over.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/life/albinos-in-cameroon-threatened-due-to-witchcraft-superstitious-beliefs/2429227

He died on 11th October aged 89. (see wikipedia)
Should not affect arbitration result, but whatever the result, perhaps may lead to a more amicable and negotiable implementation of settlement? And possibly better and less litigious relations henceforth.
Too, possibly RSM will want out of the partnership, either selling us their 37% on the cheap, or selling out to a bigger player with experience and firepower (possibly even Afentra?) - who may even wish to buy the whole shebang.
Looks a longterm positive event for VOG imo.

In the primary Maastrichtian and Campanian objectives, the well hit water-bearing reservoirs.

In the Maastrichtian target, the well hit 16 metres (52 feet) of net pay in a single zone, consisting of low-GOR, 25-degree API black oil.

Article continues below the advert
However the aerial extent of the pay zone was not sufficient to support a commercial development, according to statements by Apache.

Tracey Henderson, Apache's senior vice president of exploration, said: "With the critical elements of reservoir and charge now proven, our focus turns to integrating well data to prioritise the numerous exploration prospects we have mapped in both blocks 58 and 53.”

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/qualified-success-suriname-appraisal-well-delivers-for-totalenergies-and-apache/2-1-1099531

From Warbaby's post on advfn-board 12/11/21
'...While a Victoria/Limbe two train development incorporating both IM and IE fields remains extant, it would certainly be most welcome if the Bioko alternative proceeded given the ongoing Ambazone political unrest which will certainly render financing more expensive given the likely risk premium required by any debt provider. ...'

page 14
We are now left with what are essentially
commercial and large scale governmental
approval issues to resolve. These will
control the nature of the development
plan and determine whether the Etinde
development can succeed both financially
as an investment project as well as satisfy
various governmental objectives,
which may have both political and
commercial foundations.
The most significant change in 2021 has
been the acceptance that, in the current
development and wider commercial
investment environment, the JV partners
needed to examine options which had
previously been considered politically
impossible. This led to examining
the concept of processing all Etinde
production using the existing Bioko Island
facilities rather than just processing and
exporting dry gas as LNG.
The JV partners currently intend to
make a development preference decision
in Q4 2021 and report to SNH on our
conclusion, with the aim of making
this choice the preferred approved
development option.

This could well be the way forward for VOG:

'... In addition, further potential opportunities
may arise from converting existing oil
fired generation capacity to gas powered.
Two such projects include the existing
oil power generation 85MW Limbe
facility and the 88MW Dibamba facility
(on the outskirts of Douala). These are
dependent on the development of new
domestic gas pipeline capacity.

Thanks, Sparty.
https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/bowleven-annual-report-2021.pdf
A long read - Page 11 and 12 are of particular relevance.
'The key issue will be resolving the political concerns in Cameroon.'
Presumably Biya's succession and the Anglophone Crisis?

200 dma is at 4.4p. Currently dummy trades 4.2 - 4.4p.

Dummy trades now 3.82 - 4.17 (not 3.1 - 3.5 as advertised)

Perfectly said, Rec. This share will jump on a positive Arb result.

There is a lot to like in this morning's RNS, not least that it was 38% under budget (a considerable improvement on Foo's directorship !). Total of 72m of net pay; the top section flowing all that is needed currently. I found this statement important: '...which will eventually allow us to gain a clearer understanding of deliverability and reserves from the current well stock. This takes time but is necessary to ensure we get supply-side forecasts right going forward...' This, and perhaps a success at Matanda, should give Aksa, or others, the confidence to build their power station at Douala (particularly if the Etinde project is now to be diverted towards Bioko). With supply-side forecasts confirmed, the power contracts should follow - and the entire GDC business, or VOG itself, could then be sold off (if that is YF Finance's ultimate plan)?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/lng-africa/363135/etinde-cameroon-bioko-equatorial/

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/lng-africa/363135/etinde-cameroon-bioko-equatorial/

Nothing would surprise me with Foo, Cambridge. But I think our main concern remains with his involvement in the 107 & 108 drill funding, and how that impacts on the RSM arbitration ruling. [ imo concerns remain as to where the money went, and was the doubtful drilling company a method to funnel money to someone in government].
With regards to Etinde monetisation I think bigger political moves are afoot, and that the Government may have made some arrangement with Equatorial Guinea to push BLVN towards using BIOKO rather than LIMBE. Definitely something not right with this lack of progress on FID.
Part of my post on LSE BLVN board:
' A lot of politics at play here imo. Note that Paul Biya met with Equatorial Guinea's Oil minister in September:
https://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_state-strategy/2021/09/21/what-really-happened-when-biya-met-oil-minister-obiang,109692997-arthttps://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/1509-11877-cemac-equatorial-guinea-meets-with-cameroonian-authorities-to-boost-cooperation-in-the-hydrocarbons-sector

Thanks for the compliment, N2M. I enjoy reading your posts too. I was very tempted to pick up some at 2.8p (quoted) this morning but held back due to my money being committed elsewhere (TXP heavily). I wrote: 'Sometime soon something will have to give'.
I think BLVN are testing this out:
'The JV partners propose to renew the Etinde Exclusive Exploitation Agreement (EEEA) licence as part of the regulatory process associated with FID in 2022. The risk of the Etinde licence potentially being removed following its expiry in January 2021 is considered low at the current time.'
SNH should renew quickly if they are serious about progressing development with BLVN. If they delay renewal, then BLVN know the score. But even renewal doesn't guarantee progress. A lot of politics at play here imo. Note that Paul Biya met with Equatorial Guinea's Oil minister in September:
https://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_state-strategy/2021/09/21/what-really-happened-when-biya-met-oil-minister-obiang,109692997-arthttps://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/1509-11877-cemac-equatorial-guinea-meets-with-cameroonian-authorities-to-boost-cooperation-in-the-hydrocarbons-sector

posted this on VOG board just now:
So, what are we to make of this?
The MMs have heavily marked down BLVN this morning, and dropped VOG a little - but currently no one is buying and no one selling - seems everyone is waiting to see how it plays out.
There seems a large element of bluff and counter-bluff between BLVN and SNH here. Clearly Limbe rather than Bioko is the preferred option for BLVN if SNH cooperate (but 9 months have passed without progress). Cameroon needs the gas and developments, yet someone in government seems to be deliberately obstructing progress. [Corruption might be a concern here?]. Sometime soon something will have to give. Will they mothball Etinde? Unlikely imo. Will there be further delay? Quite possibly. And does it effect VOG? - It could be argued that if Etinde is mothballed/delayed then Cameroon becomes ever more reliant on VOG gas? BLVN is clearly a bargain at this price if all proceeds OK (mcap under £10m, with possible value of $150m). VOG has other issues of more concern and, although a bonus, is not hugely reliant on Etinde development. We still await the RSM arbitration decision which is crucial for VOG.
Here, holding on today's news..

So, what are we to make of this?
The MMs have heavily marked down BLVN this morning, and dropped VOG a little - but currently no one is buying and no one selling - seems everyone is waiting to see how it plays out.
There seems a large element of bluff and counter-bluff between BLVN and SNH here. Clearly Limbe rather than Bioko is the preferred option for BLVN if SNH cooperate (but 9 months have passed without progress). Cameroon needs the gas and developments, yet someone in government seems to be deliberately obstructing progress. [Corruption might be a concern here?]. Sometime soon something will have to give. Will they mothball Etinde? Unlikely imo. Will there be further delay? Quite possibly. And does it effect VOG? - It could be argued that if Etinde is mothballed/delayed then Cameroon becomes ever more reliant on VOG gas? BLVN is clearly a bargain at this price if all proceeds OK (mcap under £10m, with possible value of $150m). VOG has other issues of more concern and, although a bonus, is not hugely reliant on Etinde development. We still await the RSM arbitration decision which is crucial for VOG.
Here, holding on today's news..

Thanks for the replies.
I picked this up from the 8th June RNS:
We will pay about 40% of first well. They are also giving us $4m in addition.
Also: 'The total costs of the first well with a target depth of approximately 3,750 metres are currently estimated by President to be between US$10-15 million. President's share of the well will be funded out of its own resources where applicable, with, for the avoidance of doubt, no equity issuance contemplated in this regard. In the event of success, President has no doubt that there will be many funding solutions for project development.'

My conclusion from the above is that the $20m mentioned today is largely new money not announced before for, if successful, additional well costs and development. Correct?

I don't know, C. It seems a pretty fundamental question. Perhaps we will find out when the farmout is announced? (Admittedly I'm being lazy, and just put this out there without research, hoping there would be a clear answer - hopefully someone can explain easily?)