Member Info for happysparrow

https://tt.loopnews.com/content/fyzabad-residents-breathe-sigh-relief-following-oil-spill

About £45,000 traded = a reduction in Market Cap of £8m.
Really?

Got me thinking, Photo, - but yes, way too early. I'd have a hard job to price it even a month away.
By xmas I'd expect us still be in $100+ oil territory, but too, to be in the midst of a stock market slump (though the Energy sector should avoid the worst, perhaps even rise, being a safe haven?)
TXPs target is 12,000 boepd by xmas. If my sums are correct, on an annual basis that would bring in £36m a year (net).
Based on meeting that target, a successful Royston sidetrack done (a major catalyst imo), a continuous drilling programme ahead (with either Kraken or Royston Deep to spud in H12023), and Trinidad tax reform announced + Vat refund received, I'll go for £1.68
I'll not be happy if it is anywhere close to 80p !

Full article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-Colombias-New-President-Upend-Its-Oil-Industry.html

A key part of the article:
'..For these reasons, Petro’s plans to end contracting for oil exploration have triggered considerable conjecture that it will significantly impact government revenues, preventing the president-elect from implementing his economic reforms. It is estimated that the president-elect’s plans will be impacted by a massive budget black hole which will worsen if Petro ends extractivist industries in Colombia...'

and this:
'..Those numbers indicate Colombia’s oil production will grow over the immediate future, even once Petro takes office and is able to successfully implement his plan to end contracts for oil exploration. It is likely that Colombia’s crude oil output will return to over 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day at some time in the immediate future. ...'

From the above juxtaposed points, the obvious solution imo is to increase tax on Production - and heavily, like the UK windfall tax.

Perhaps one possibility of a regional approach to Energy is that they can coordinate taxation in the region so that the countries do not compete with each other for investment on a taxation basis? As this region will then have to compete with other nearby regions (Lat Am and Africa), this should result in T&T reducing its comparatively high level of taxation. Hopefully.

https://newsday.co.tt/2022/06/27/young-in-suriname-for-energy-talks/

https://www.inewsguyana.com/regional-energy-strategy-to-soon-be-presented-pres-ali-tells-surinames-oil-expo/

Of more immediate importance for us, I read (but can no longer find the article) that Minister Young would be back in Trinidad today (Finance minister Imbert was standing-in for him whilst away) - so, if there is an EIA to sign off tomorrow, Young is there, in-country, to do it.

Possibly a day later for EIA?
https://tt.loopnews.com/content/pm-takes-precautions-government-offices-close-midday

Yes: 12,000 boepd (up from 1500 boepd) 6 months from now; 20,000 boepd sometime in 2023. All without drilling new wells.

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/conrad-enill-resigns-as-ngc-chairman-6.2.1511782.7c9b626a1d

Good point about the buried pipe, Scott. Hopefully they did some visual inspection of pipe welds, and testing, before burying it. (Not sure how they would do a visual inspection for an under-water pipe either). Probably they'll use a mix of methods described in the article, as applicable for this specific pipe.
No expert here, just a 'newshound'. Monkey Junkey would be the man to ask.

I too was not that disappointed with the RNS. It helped by putting out some more detail of the stages to go through.
Coho is very close imo - perhaps in the next 10 days? : 'Construction is underway on the 63-foot above ground pipeline to the Central block tie-in point, which is the final requirement of the project.
• Upon completion of the tie-in, commissioning and handover of the pipeline, Coho natural gas production will commence....'

EIA approval is what it is. 30th June was the deadline. Will the government disappoint again?

Drilling was interesting:
'Drilling
• The Royston surface equipment has been repositioned to accommodate the future sidetrack of Royston-1 to test the intermediate and subthrust sheets of the Herrera Formation.
• Upon approval of the Cascadura EIA, an additional drilling pad at Cascadura will be constructed to accommodate the first two future budgeted development wells.
• The timing of our future Ortoire drilling program will be evaluated once Coho is on optimal production ['we are targeting full production in August 2022'] and we have received approval of the Cascadura EIA.'

It would be disappointing if there was no drilling before August/September. I would have hoped some immediate drilling could be announced and commenced as soon as we received EIA approval - particularly the Royston sidetrack. No mention of the 2 Coora wells - perhaps they have an arrangement with the Ministry that they are no longer a priority?

Hopefully, too, we get our VAT refunds soon (was it $5m? That would pay to get some drilling done. Perhaps we could raise a loan against the value of the refund so as to get drilling started now?)

https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2022:newsml_L1N2YE1JK:1-suriname-s-staatsolie-seeks-oil-alliances-with-trinidad-s-state-firms/

https://twitter.com/stuartryoung1
Stuart R Young
@StuartRYoung1
·
2h
Meeting this morning at Staatsolie Maatschappij Suriname NV with MD/ CEO Anand Jagesar.

https://makepipingeasy.com/hydrotest-procedure-for-piping-system/

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/methanex-willing-to-pay-more--for-gas-in-tt-says-its-ceo-6.2.1510956.8a012035f4

Some pictures:
https://www.cnc3.co.tt/residents-fall-sick-after-oil-pipelines-cut-in-fyzabad/

Another report:
https://newsday.co.tt/2022/06/23/cut-pipeline-causes-oil-spill-in-fyzabad/

https://tt.loopnews.com/content/young-touchstone-respond-alleged-sabotage-fyzabad-pipeline-612515
https://tt.loopnews.com/content/oil-pipe-cut-alleged-sabotage-leaves-fyzabad-residents-suffering

ART - I think you need to apologise. MT is one of the best researched posters on these chat boards and, indeed, seems to have far more money than most. His investment choices are always worth considering; and takes a long term view on investment and the commodity cycles. I'll leave it at that. I'm sure he can speak up for himself, but probably doesn't care to reply.

It all depends on the policies, MT.
They are beginning to be announced daily already (hence my post about the Venezeulan border - and possible disapproval from US?). Finance Minister and Energy Minister probably announced soon. Then perhaps some policies. Although not announced previously, I expect they'll take a look at the UK windfall tax on production. The high oil price will be hard to resist the temptation to get more in their coffers. They'll need this if they want to advance their social policies; and if they are to reduce exploration, they will need to make hay on current production while the sun shines. Also I agree with the analysis that O&G business will be harder to do, with tighter regulation.
AXL is a great company, but possibly shackled now. Currently a falling knife. Might make a small trade here under 12p (though all my money tied up in TXP currently, which I'm reluctant to sell, as news soon - if they ever get their act together); but any larger investment, then I'd need to see how AXL plays out over the summer as government policies become clearer (and as I can release more funds from TXP).

Hopefully this will work:

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/538741-colombias-president-elect-plans-to-reopen-border-with-venezuela.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/colombia-presidential-election-creates-uncertainties-170000504.html