Member Info for HappyDays2U

You can only laugh at this bit..
"A DHSC spokesperson said: “We have worked towards an amicable resolution of matters relating to the contract with Abingdon Health PLC but we cannot comment further"
Errrm yes, agreeing to pay up after the Dispute Resolution Process is 'amicable' then not doing so is very much not!!!

Boom! Main media finally picking up on the scandal non payment by the DHSC. Get some proper pressure on them! They do not like bad publicity.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/covid-contracts-row-uk-government-vip-lane-firm-lateral-flow-tests-refuse-pay-1509019/amp

Very nice RNS!
Should (although I doubt it) shut the doubters up!

I think ABDX will naturally go up as this 4th/5th…. whatever we are on now? BA.2 wave kicks in.
It might be the moment the penny drops that in 10 years’ time we will be on wave 126, in 20 years’ wave 245 etc. Covid is here to stay forever!
Some optimistic experts may ‘predict’ in ‘may’ get milder, but the vast majority correctly (in my view) say they have no idea. It could be milder, the same as Omicron or worse like Delta or even more deadly than Delta. Complete equal chance of each scenario.
As we will be reminded when this current wave gets going. Covid is sooo contagious, even with mild Omicron and the majority of people Booter vaccinated it can still fill up your hospitals and cause massive disruption to supply chains and all businesses.
Omicron is mild because the vaccines give good protection against it…but problem! that protection is getting less and less as each day passes. Vaccinating over 7 billion people once or twice a year is impossible. The average Jo has had enough of vaccines and will need more and more persuading to get any more.
It all points to covid tests, whether Antibody or Antigen being needed for a very long time yet. ABDX make both and have the ability to make 150 million of them within a short notice timeframe. This is why I am sticking around and I am as confident as ever that this is a great long and short term investment.

Purely my own personal speculation so not to be taken as anything more than that but, I think (for what it’s worth) we will get Vatic TT completion news next week. I’m founding this on them saying it will come ‘during’ March where schedule statements nearly always say “by the end of…” It makes me think they are confident it will be comfortably before the end of the month…. Or it might mean nothing at all?
I’m also very hopeful this will be significant news.
You don’t want an RNS that mixes good news with bad news as the market will inevitably focus on the bad, so your good news gets lost. The last RNS had the clearing of bad news out of the way, starting a fresh approach and perhaps purposely underplaying Covid test revenues to the worst-case scenario so not to excite anyone or be accused of over optimism. Let the SP get its battering, knowing (hopefully) you have good news coming soon after that will make it get back to, and past its current value.
We have been promised Vatic TT completion and H1 2022 TU by the end of this month.
I expect the pre orders will comfortably surpass 2021 H2 revenue on their own. Vatic will hopefully also commit to X amount of test per month making H1 and H2 cash flow predictions look at lot healthier than the £1.7 million last posted.
The basis of my optimism here is the aggressive Production Personnel hiring ABDX appear to have been doing for 3 or 4 months now. Its either a complete red herring or they know they have orders to fill coming.
I expect AVCT payment will also come under H1 revenue. ABDX delivered 3 batches of tests, done to spec to them. No idea how many tests this means but ABDX would also be charging them to TT and development cost. For a company with an Mcap as small as ours this could be a significant payment.
As I say, my opinion only. What I say maybe has a pinch or two over optimism but its all perfectly plausible as well.

Well I think it's quite simple. The GLP are taking the goverment to court and the basis of their case is you (the goverment) wasted tax payers money by not following the tendering rules.
The goverment want to have the argument that they didn't waste any money as they haven't paid any out.
This of course should not make them look good, it should make them look bad as they have no league grounds to do this but it might help them win this specific case against them. Once the case is concluded, win or lose for them I'm sure ABDX will be paid very soon after. (outside change before the case still)
Of course in the meantime they know the fact they haven't paid could bring them some bad press one day, so those with the power to pay the invoice are covering their backside creating the illusion that this is not what it's about and they will pay ABDX soon....something they have managed to string out for over a year.

Well yeah, debt should be paid within the next 10 to 12 weeks and Vatic TT done within the next 2/3 weeks. It comes with pre orders which will bring more cash flow (vatic aim is for us to make 100million a year which will improve cash flow a lot!) and the company has recently invested around the entire Mcap in expansion and new products.

A company worth £9 million who are capable of making 150 million tests a year.
On the backdrop of rising Covid cases, a new verient that can come at any time, rising hospital admissions and a global population vaccines immunity dropping fast.
Big TT for what could become the no brainer go to test will be announced within the next 16 trading days maximum.
Turning point for this firm is not far away.

Interesting new study and article today showing that BA.2 (Stealth Omicron) is more dangerous "the most dangerous verient yet" than first thought so should be classed as its own Verient of concern.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/08/omic-m08.html

May explain why hospital cases are going up across the country, in some places higher than they were at the Omicron peak.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/covid-hospital-admissions-rising-across-uk-waning-immunity-older-people-1505560/amp

Covid doesn't care about War or how us humans are feeling. It will do its thing whether goverments or the press talk about it or not.
Sooner or later hospitals will fill again and it will not be able to be ignored any further.

10 days ago, the 7 day average UK covid case rate was 37k. Yesterday this was up to 58k (7 day average) so a 64% increase. Its pretty much the same picture globally.
Another wave is coming. The more people that get it the higher the chances of a new verient.
The next global verient will need to be more contagious than Omicron meaning even if its mild it can/will cause mayhem.
It's not a if but when Covid comes back into the forefront again (sadly of course) and when it does people / governments will want mutation proof, easy to use and accurate tests avaliable.

Vatic tweeted this on the 14th Feb.

We’re delighted to announce that our clinical trials in the US are progressing well and we hope to release the results in a few weeks' time before submitting our EUA.

So 3 weeks ago now so in the "few weeks" zone.
Hopefully we will get this news in the coming week, it could confirm Vatic are the no brainer test to go for (saliva, mutation proof and extremely accurate) and give the SP a good boost.

Yes well said.
I'm going to labor (again) a point I have tried to make before.
You read around some AIM BB's and it's common place for people to predict 5/6...10 baggers but the realistic details of achieving it are not thought through. E.g. a company has a great product and people think when it's ready it will be massive!....maybe so however. Once ready it will need to go through a regularly process, be verified and approved, then you need to find a way to deliver it in mass to the market, build a team of expertise, get them an office/factory to work in, kit that out with IT equipment etc..get an IT team in place, get sales team, logicits, HSE etc, etc. Get them all organised, and the list goes on and on and on.
This all takes a lot of time, money and effort and is, in most cases harder than developing the product.
This is where ABDX is different. They have all of the above ready to go. They have been doing this for 14 years, have all the knowledge and expertise in house, the equipment, contacts and processes.
When you have this, the sales team have something to sell ready and waiting. These sales will come. ABDX are in discussions with other manufacturers about outsourcing work. This (big order) could happen at any moment anytime. This is why ABDX very genuinely could 10 bag or more on any day.

Sorry to labor my point but we are maybe talking days before things turn around here in a significant way.
People need to keep in mind the tiny 10m Mcap.
Business deals are all relative to this. If a company that is worth £1 billion announces a new £100 million contract you would exspect a big market reaction to that. For a £10 million pound company a £1million deal is exactly the same in market terms.
We know Vatic TT will be complete during this month and it comes with pre orders. Even in modest numbers it will represent a big deal and change in direction for a company valued as low as this.

We have something much more near term to look forward to.
"The Company notes the recent announcement by Vatic of its strong clinical trial results to date and its expectation of a near-term submission to the FDA EUA. The Directors expect the Vatic Know-Now™ test to complete technical transfer to manufacture during March 2022 and the Company has received initial manufacturing orders."

I note 'during' March. The standard would usually say by the 'end' of to give themselves maximum time. This makes me hopeful this new will come soon.
Remember 600k pre ordered months ago. That alone could eclipse H2 TO. Guess some of those pre orders might have been cancelled, but they could also have been added to maybe significantly. With all the hiring Vatic are doing the latter is more likely IMO.
That news could drop any day from now.

Correct, it was around £5 a test. Being we are pursuing £8.5 million for 1 million tests you could argue the real cost (procurement, development cost etc included) is £8.50 per test.
If we can make 150 million @ £5 a test, I make that a turnover of £750 million. Being conservative and cutting that in half (£2.50 a test) so ABDX can be more competitive would still give a TO of £375 million.

So.. if we can get to full capacity (growing sector, no good reason why ABDX can't) why do you think its "Cuckoo land" to say they would have a 300+ million turnover?

Huum ok, Cuckoo land. So from your research what is the going price that you have found (not lucky guess think) a manufacturer of a LFT would charge per test?...how much is profit....in fact, any form of actual knowledge of this sector you may want to share will be great.
Licking your wounds after some paper losses, we have all been there (well honest ones and not the I'm the new big thing ((like the majority on here)) want people to think one's) past, present and no doubt future it happens but I have done this for over 20 years and am defo up on the whole. There are good moments, frustrating times and just down right bad ones but, this is not a make or brake (oilly) type investment. Sometimes things just take some time.
I have been around long enough to spot a person whole just follows a crowd and hopes for the best.
Just meant in a genuine nice way. Research, know your **** and then you will feel much better about things....even when you are down.

But it is odd to invest your money in something you have no belief in....no?
Call me what you want but at least I explain why I feel as I do....not just 'everything is rubbish" ...errrm fullstop!
I will do so now. The market valued us today based on 1.7 million in 6 months. (3.4 million turnover in a year if stays the same) which is a bit naff and on that basis £10/11 million mcap is probably fair.
But, lots and lots of things have not been priced in.
Our money in the bank, the money owed to us and the fact the investment for the future has already been made. In a growing sector, a new client, new products in development, big TT due to be complete in weeks, in talks to take on outsourced manufacturing, covid verients looming at any point, moving into retail website as well etc.
As I said before, the stadium has been built ready to serve a growing sector. ABDX can go from 3/4 million turnover to adding 00's (to be clear that being £300 million+ ) in a single contract, (Probably two or three or more to be a bit less rose tinted) so it CAN all change very quickly. For those in a hurry (like you) then...well not to sure what to say but, if you think LFT's have a future then you should believe its a matter of time before ABDX are making 150 million (or more) of them a year....personally I'm waiting for that moment before I think of selling any shares and I can wait.
Personally I think another covid verient of concern is not far away (unfortunately) and we will get there fairly soon. If not, or with Antibody testing kicking off, if not, next winter with our range of Flu, covid and other tests being made and sold directly to retail.

Ye old, I think the SP will continue to go down, I can't see anything positive in the future....EVER! Get out while you can. Yet.... I am invested in the company, honest folks! Line Pumpky :) right OK then.

I'm not talking about the goverment payment.
The statement is about the goverment using Antibody testing...."as and when" this happens.

But anyway "They have been to court" no they haven't....its in May and its not ABDX case, its the GLP vs the goverment.
Per the RNS payment is still due. Per previous RNS there is no legal grounds not to pay it meaning by law (yes even the government needs to follow that) we will get the payment at some point.

I do like the confidence behind this statement.
"Company will be ready to scale-up its supply as and when national testing strategies focus on an individual's antibody levels as a proxy for immunity"
Not 'if' or when...As! Logically Antibody testing is the longterm path forward. We just need the international scientific community to agree what level means 'protection' (being worked on and nearly there by the sounds of it) and then ABDX has the test ready to go and could be the ones getting the very big goverment (hopefully not our goverment) Contracts.