Member Info for HappyDays2U

Non covid Lateral flow test market set to grow to $12.1 billion over the next 6 years.

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/lateral-flow-assays-market-worth-over-12-1-billion-by-2028-says-global-market-insights-inc--888361412.html

If you add covid tests in. Let's look at them in a tiny way and say 0.01% of the world need to do a test once a week. That's still 7.5 million a week or 325 million a year.
Think care homes hospitals the world over and a yearly (at least) global wave....it will be more than 0.01%
Just 1% a week = 3.25 billion test needed in a year....on top of the non covid tests.
Not a bad sector to be in!

Could be the 'Only' approved saliva test on the market!....imagine that!
With a market of 7.5 billion people potential customers they will need more than the 150 million we can make for them in a year.

Jolly sums up the classic LSE big man wonna be.
He reminds me of times you are watching your favorite football team (or any sport) and the person sitting behind you clearly doesn’t know much about the game or team but wants everyone around them to think they know more than anyone. They do this by throwing out some classic football puns as often as possible “just play football lads”, “box em in”, or in jolly terms, errm balance sheets! Placements, oversold yeah, yeah sounds good etc etc, (see, see I know all the jargon an’t I clever) your team are 4th in the table but as soon as you go one goal down the person starts saying “that’s it! we are going to be relegated, need to sack the manager quick, players don’t know what they are doing….but then the team gets 2 quick goals and then they talk about “league title has our name on it”, “I’ve been watching the player who scored the second goal since he was in the youth team and knew he would be a star”…. (kid sitting next to him) but we signed him last summer from Man U…”oh yeah, yeah well I know that, I saw him while he was playing against the youth team is what I meant. Same sort of people will go onto other clubs fan forums at the beginning of the season saying my team will finish higher than yours, wait to the end of the season go back to the ones that did finish lower saying, “see, see told you so an’t I cleaver” but conveniently forget about the 70% that finisher higher. This is basically Jolly’s hobby. Throw out loads of predictions know law of average you might get a few right and then some people might think you are smart.

Sorry for the double post (some malfunction there) maybe LSE thought the post was so good it was worth saying twice :)

Unfortunately, there are a lot of youngsters blowing Granddad’s inheritance money or their student loans around, but we do at least have the filter option when needed. Just ask yourself, am I ever likely to receive information (good or bad) that might be interesting or useful from this poster. If the answer is highly unlikely, Filter!
Anyway….
I’m tempted to have another top up. In the next 11 trading days we will get Vatic TT confirmation with pre-order numbers and a Trading Update. For a company valued as low as ABDX on a backdrop of rising covid cases and hospitalisations and tensions with China either/or could send the SP well on its way to true value. The current SP just about covers asset value, i.e no! current or future earning priced in. The SP has a long, long way to go up once these future earnings are in place and recognised.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of youngsters blowing Granddad’s inheritance money or their student loans around, but we do at least have the filter option when needed. Just ask yourself, am I ever likely to receive information (good or bad) that might be interesting or useful from this poster. If the answer is highly unlikely, Filter!
Anyway….
I’m tempted to have another top up. In the next 11 trading days we will get Vatic TT confirmation with pre-order numbers and a Trading Update. For a company valued as low as ABDX on a backdrop of rising covid cases and hospitalisations and tensions with China either/or could send the SP well on its way to true value. The current SP just about covers asset value, i.e no! current or future earning priced in. The SP has a long, long way to go up once these future earnings are in place and recognised.

Pumpkey is this the Oxford university graduate you think is no go's?

Alex Sheppard has a track record in successfully scaling medtech start-ups. He has four years’ experience in the diagnostics industry space having led two companies simultaneously from pre-seed to Series A, raising £6.5M and negotiating commercial partnerships with Samsung and Nikon.

Or maybe the co founder Mona Omir?

My learning about philosophy at a very young age opened up a creative way of thinking about science. My background is multidisciplinary and includes 12 years of academic and industrial experience across disciplines such as pharmaceutical sciences, medicinal chemistry, biochemistry and nanomedicine. I did a PhD in University of Liverpool in the department of chemistry. I always wanted to experience entrepreneurship and thought I wanted to do something different and new, which led me to discover an accelerator called Entrepreneur First in London. It’s here where I met my cofounder Alex Sheppard

Young, forward thinking and very clever..... I can see why you feel no connection and are confused. They sound pretty savvy to me.

I will add, ABDX expansion is now complete. New premises, machinery, automation system and people (mostly) in place. Give them the orders and they can be making 3 million tests a week! very soon after. It could all be perfect timing for them / us.

I think there are lots of reasons for the rise.

A massively undervalued SP correcting itself.
The Government bill (£9million) due to be paid soon.
Looking increasingly likely Antibody testing will be used more widely.
Another Covid wave in progress and increasing very fast.
Starting to rip through China’s 2 billion people population (variant dream). This meaning China may need their tests for themselves or be unable to make them due to everyone in lockdown.
Increased suspicion that China may help Russian making it even more politically dangerous for the west to give them billions for tests when we can make them ourselves.
No more free government tests to complete with in 2 weeks’ time.
Vatic TT due to be complete in 2 weeks’ time.
Meaning, ABDX is in a very good place to profit massively from all of the above.
And/or a leak of good news about to drop.

There will be a lot of eyes looking at what happens here tomorrow.
As I said earlier, I think today was mostly just a market correction after a well overdone drop. However, I think if this starts having another large surge tomorrow then a ‘leak’ will start looking likely and things could start getting very exciting.

It's worth at this time to have another think about how big this test could become.
Excellent S&S numbers, only saliva needed, mutation proof.
Strangly the S&S numbers are probably the least significant out of these 3 strong selling points but high quality always has a place in any market. Its also an excellent added bonus to the other two.
Saliva only - as a Dad to three under 10 year olds , I can tell you the average perant will happily pay a bit more for this. The sheer mention of doing a covid test can set my 3 into tears as they know what's coming...let's face it this applies to most grown-ups as well. Test one, make yourself gag and then poke something up your nose until you cry, test 2 place this under your tongue for a bit....Big selling point!
Mutation proof, all goverments want to be prepared in future so fill up a warehouse or two with test ready to go...Great, but if they don't work well with the new verient that is a very expensive mistake and worse! You now don't have any tests when you really need them.. .. get and store these ones, and whatever happens you still have the security that they will work whatever Covid throws at us.. very massive selling point!
I really do think Vatic could clean up in a very big way.

Whitehall must be getting worried. They could have the perfect storm coming. A need to put sanctions on China who they have relied upon to supply 90+% of our Covid test just as a new large wave / maybe new verient hits.
That's our country massively exposed to a potentially very bad situation, got to let Covid rip as we can not provide anywhere near as many tests that are required.
If it then came out that the UK has a factory that can make 150 million tests a year but aren't because the goverment owe them nearly £10 million it will be a media bloodbath! I'm expecting the bill will be paid very soon!

The MM’s walked the SP down in a brutal way. It was not done on the back of over selling and what we are seeing now is a rerate correction of that… the free float of shares is still low.
When ABDX announced the BioSURE TT the SP went from 27p to over 80p in a day (+53p nearly +200%) before anyone jumps on me, yes it finished the day around 68p.
Vatic is going to be the best, easiest to use and (only I think) mutation proof Antigen test on the market. It is a much bigger deal than BioSURE will ever be to ABDX.
For me, current fair value of the SP pre Vatic news is 25-30p. After vatic news (obviously very dependent of the pre-order numbers and future order predictions / confirmation) the SP could/should be 40-80+p.
I think todays rise is basically the MM’s getting the SP back to fair value knowing a good Vatic RNS and people will be happy to pay a lot, lot more for their shares so get the SP back to a good starting level.

Prepare for takeoff!
Getting tense with China now. UK needs to shore up home testing supplies!

On this day last year the SP was £1.
By August it was down to 27p but jumped up to 62p in a day on the announcement of the BioSURE, TT being completed.
ABDX will be completing a much bigger TT (Vatic) within the next 2 weeks. I'm not sure where it will take the SP but it will be higher then 9p that is for sure.

Rerate in progress! Even looking at ABDX in a negative light the SP should be at least double what it is now.

Just over an hour until close.
A reminder the Avacta TT was due by end of December, they actually completed it on the 10th Dec. Vatic TT due "during" March and Monday will be the 14th day of.
Just saying if your thinking of a top up or getting in I would personally not wait any longer. I have just done my final top up...news is not far away now.

Yeah it's hard not to feel insulted by how the market values ABDX in comparison to ODX and GRD.
ODX, what a shambles! now pulled out of covid tests all together, sold their factory, owe the goverment money and now make next to no money.... valued over £2million more than ABDX.
GDR, turned over £0.7 mill last year. Lost nearly £20 million the year before, currently not selling anything... valued £5million more than ABDX.

Yes ABDX had a bad H2 but before that they made comfortably more than these 2 firmes conbined! We have millions in the bank, millions owed, contracts in place, proper company owned assets (worth more than Mcap) production line and personnel all lined up, big TT due any day....Yet the market values ABDX prospects as worse than ODX for jeeez sake! Completely unexplainable....BTW I'm not saying ODX and GDR are over valued, just points out how stupidly undervalued ABDX is, we should be at least double whatever ODX and GDR are. It will correct itself in time I'm sure.

Meanwhile 84,504 UK covid cases reported yesterday, hospital admissions up 17% in a week and the warning these numbers will probably at least double over the next 2 weeks.
And the UK goverment is holding back the countries largest LFT manufacturer?!... oh but of course, so long as you tell the people you are Levelling up the North, you are supporting British business and the UK diagnostic industry they will believe it!....The truth always comes out eventually and hopefully this is the time!
China cases are going up fast as well..... maybe they will want their tests for themselves? and then the UK goverment will have a massive,... like ostrich size! egg on it's face.

Yes, inews have delivered the story as an 'Exclusive', this usually leads to other media outlets picking up the story as well.
I really, really, really hope this brings the embarrassment it should do to those responsible for holding this payment. If you work in public office you have one remit. Do what is best for the Brittish people. These people have preferred to see 60 people lose their jobs, completely unnecessarily and nearly send a company that produces life saving products to the wall. All because they want to save their own skin and can't bring themselves to admitting they were wrong! Absolute disgrace, not fit for the positions they hold and need to be removed from them ASAP!