Member Info for HappyDays2U

Invfun,
I'm not the best person to advise as there are lots of sites that offer the service and I have only ever tried one.
It was the Financial Times, you get the fully live data and the newspaper side on top which was all good.
I stopped partly because of the fee (£35 a month) but maybe more so because I got a little addicted to constantly checking the trades of every stock (at the time it was 6 or 7) I owned.....I didn't get much work done!
Its good info but be careful, if you have faith in your stocks and a busy life then you can (and may should) live without it and save yourself some cash.

Jeeze STL, if you feel like that, you have a very strange investment strategy.

Agree that LSE data is poor. They do not show all the trades made either, you need level 2 for that.
Other sites look at the last trade and what was paid. Today that is higher than the last trade placed yesterday (closing price) so it shows as a rise.
LSE only logs changes in the Bid and Ask prices which is the same as yesterday.

It's a "get in" on the sidelines. Big buys cause SP movement up, where lots of 100k (shares) buys places periodically throughout the day do not.
A helpful MM or two knocking the price down when someone sells a few hundred quids worth and hiding buys they best they can and you get to build you position under the radar and as cheap as possible.

JB, you need to judge contract values against the relativity to the Mcap of the company.
£2-3 million contract for firms valued @ 100's of £millions is miserly but to one valued @ £12 million they are not.
2.5 million represents 20% of the Mcap. Its the same as a £200 million company getting a £40 million contract.
The Market may not be picking up on these things yet but it will do in time I'm sure.

Do completely agree with the goverment comment though.

I'm not sure why I'm giving any of my time to this but.

"it’s irrational hype that really winds me up (not that your post was). "

So what exactly was it then that wound you up about my posts? You wrote it, at least have the balls to stick by it and back your thoughts up with something.. anything!
It's easy to be critical of others, not so easy to put some effort in to back your statements up.

I don't get all this labelling of every post has to be either a ramp or de-ramp.
There's big middle ground where an investor in a company is naturally likely to see something in the business that is positive. Shares these thought and research that got them to invest and stay invested...its not ramping. I always make clear what is fact (backed up with links) and what is my thought...this could be, might be etc, not this is, this will etc.

LSE is here to share thought and research on investments. You need to understand the diferance between such places and your WhatsApp group with your mates from the pub.
You have nothing to offer....filtered.

Fair enough, please feel very free to filter me then. I don't wantto wined anyone up where looking at your posting history that's appers to be your only purpose.
It's probably helpful information for others to know the company they are/thinking of investing in is hiring people. I don't need to share this information but I do to be helpful to others so in that one post I have been more use than you 345 posts combined!

With this Monkeypox outbreak it gets you wondering if mother nature is giving us some clues of what is to come.
Let’s face it, there are way too many humans on this plant, and we have proven to be excellent at ruining it and the biodiversity of nature. We are also increasing in number at an alarming and unsustainable rate.
Billions of people crammed into our cities and all jumping around the plant giving the perfect environment for diseases to develop and then spread quickly.
We are the smartest creatures that have ever lived but we are not as smart as mother nature itself and the billions of years it took to develop and find ways to survive.
I hate to be Mr doomsday man, but I do foresee if not a new more dangerous Covid variant it will be something else.
As with Covid maybe with a massive global effort new vaccine / cures can be developed in a year or so but the gap between will always need to be filled with testing and lots and lots of them.
For this reason, personally I can’t think of a safer place to put some money than an infectious disease test creator and manufacturer.

I think that's well summed up there Zoom.
It the strange and annoying thing (when working against you) about AIM. It's actually not so much about picking the best company but picking what other people "think" is the best company.
The extra annoying thing with this one is people have lost faith because ABDX/BOD ended up with some really bad clients, first the goverment, closely followed by AVACTA. Both times ABDX did what their clients asked for but both times they came out looking the bad guys.
AIM sees many examples of companies valved in to 10's to 100's of £millions despite not actually making any money yet...reason, enough people believe they will make lots of money some time in the future. At some point in time they need to start making those £10's millions just to justify their current value, don't and then crash big time!
ABDX tiny Mcap, with incoming revenue and all the other stuff you pointed out equals very little risk. The £2.7 million contract they announced last week pretty much justifies the Mcap on its own.
I think many think like you say..so why the low SP must be something wrong so we are just in a who blinks first situation. When the SP moves those people will have the confidence there is nothing wrong, buy in, SP goes up more, more confidence, more people buy in and off we go in a big way.
When the fundamentals are there it always comes in time. You don't necessarily need a great RNS either, it sometimes just happens out the blue. One big buyer seeing the value and opportunity and off this will go.

3 more jobs at ABDX posted in the last 24 hours

https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Job/york-abingdon-health-jobs-SRCH_IL.0,4_IC3297365_KO5,20.htm?suggestCount=0&suggestChosen=false&clickSource=searchBtn&typedKeyword=&typedLocation=York&context=Jobs

These guys are on the up!
Are these new positions to fill the recently announced new contracts work or maybe loading up the staff levels for what they know (but we don't yet) is coming next?

Pumpkin,
Quite frankly I can’t be bothered to look it up as I have much better things to do with my Friday than keep educating you, but I’m quite confidant that you are also reading company accounts wrong.
Yes ABDX like all companies has had some good and some not so good years. Some of these were loss making but I stand by my comment that on the whole they have made more money than they have lost (profit making) and more years than not of the 14 they have been in existence they make profit.

Pumpky, everyone is an enthusiast investor compared to you!
Once again showing how little, you seem to know about the basics of companies and how shares in them actually works.
Your shares as well as mine and everyone else’s are 0.025 Ordinary Shares. Its just the par value of an ordinary share not the Market value!

Its in one of the RNS statements that the Government made it clear they will not pay anything until after the court case. We could argue its over now but lets face it, its always going to be the ‘outcome’ of the court case that is meant by that. We don’t know when this will be but it should be before the end of June.
Whatever the ruling is ABDX can go knocking on the DHSC door the next day and say “sooo, when will we be getting our payment then?”. If the DHSC still play hardball then ABDX can as well and threaten/start a judicial review. As the government have used the tests, they have next to no chance of getting out of paying for them so I’m sure an embarrassment in the courts is something they will want to avoid. Basically, something should happen very soon after the ruling IMO.
I agree everything needs a timeline. I am conscious that I have been thinking and sometimes saying on here, next month, next month but I do think the next month could be big.
Case ruling (highly likely) with a likely win for the government.
Payment made by the government 50/50 by end of June but I would say 90/10 likely by end of July.
Vatic test fully launched with good chance EUA given in this time.
Launching of the enhanced B2C e-commerce website due to happen Q2 2022
And the statement in the last RNS “We continue to make commercial progress in other areas and look forward to updating the market in due course”…. Maybe another nice surprise announcement or two?
Each needs a timeline that suits them, mine is at least to the end of this year. We will see what happens with Covid but we know for sure it will be with us and cases will go up in autumn/winter time meaning more testing required as well (Vatic / new European client could need many millions of test made and maybe Avacta test back in the mix). ABDX would have launched their App reader, hopefully have their Lyme disease, hepatitis C, and flu tests all on the market. Work with Deepverge tests complete with any additional work they get between now and then in the pipeline or completed. Most importantly of all, I’m expecting much healthier set of financial results. This the key for me. I’m not expecting knockout financials for the first 6 months of this year but they will surly be (better be!) much better than the 6 months previous, but by year end we need to see solid (I’m hopeful for profit excluding DHSC payment) results. Once full faith in ABDX returns (might be soon might need to wait until later in the year) this will fly in a big way. At the moment things appear to be going in the right direction (yes I know sadly the SP isn't) so I’m happy to hang around.

Meanwhile, ABDX are still ramping up the manufacturing Team.

Looking for ‘A Number’ of Production Laboratory Technicians
https://uk.trabajo.org/job-1276-20220520-6cc1ee390aa549de11ea3bcfd208163f?utm_campaign=google_jobs_apply&utm_source=google_jobs_apply&utm_medium=organic

And ‘A Number’ of Production Operatives.

https://uk.trabajo.org/job-1276-20220518-07182098da255dd2843c46c728f56198?utm_campaign=google_jobs_apply&utm_source=google_jobs_apply&utm_medium=organic

Read the job descriptions, there is no doubting what they are there to do. Factory line making and packing up tests. They have been advising for the ‘a number’ of positions for pretty much all of this year.

Jeez Pumpky you have shown some big time naivety there. ALL companies no matter how big or small have shareholders. You can’t register a company with Companies House unless you specify how you are dividing it up (shares) and who owns what percentage. Every company must have a minimum of 2 shareholders. I have a LTD, I own 99 shares in it and my wife owns the other 1.
The difference between a LTD and a PLC is if you want shares in a LTD you need to be invited in, you could go to your local corner shop now and ask if they would be interested in selling you some shares in their business if you liked.
PLC (the P standing for Public) means anyone can buy shares and they are much more easily transferable.
So well done Sherlock, hold the front page, Abingdon had shareholders before it became a PLC…. WoW I can’t believe you invest in shares and don’t know these basics.

Yes, I think the problem we have here is ABDX ‘Covid Stock’ label. Lots of investors got burned (if buying at the top) putting money into these stocks and the general feel is that Covid is now something in the past. If you don’t get the big government orders then there is no point or money in these stocks etc.
This is what is creating amazing bargains like here. It’s a stock that’s just currently out of fashion but this does not make it a bad business.
What people are forgetting or not seeing is ABDX was a successful profit-making company before Covid began. If we pretended covid never happened and Abingdon wanted to IPO now it would probably be valued higher than it currently is based on just their plant tests and other bits a bobs they do.
Covid testing is not being done as much as before but we are still talking 100’s of millions of tests being done globally each week and this is currently quite summer covid time.
Some are being paid for privately, some by companies some by governments but it doesn’t really matter as someone is paying for them, so this is still a massive new market that ABDX did not have before. Covid has also highlighted LFT’s many uses and familiarised the average Joe with them…basically massive free advert for ABDX and their products. Its given them the chance to expand massively, sign new contracts and have the money to develop new tests….yet, here they/us are valued at probably less than they would have been before Covid,,, why? Coz making money out of covid tests is over….No it isn’t! and even if it was ABDX business is still worth way more than £15 million.
Not including the Government payment I am confident ABDX will make profit (as they usually do) this year. Money always talks in the end; we might need to wait until the next set of accounts before the market sees this bargain and stops looking at it as a covid company and just a company that makes money well positioned in a growing sector.

Never say never Pumpky. The day may come where the government needs to go to ABDX on its knees.
Sooner or later China will need to accept they can’t lockdown the country every time a disease that will be with us forever and is very, very highly contagious brakes out. They also can’t let it rip completely so the only solution for them is to implement a strict Covid testing program to drip cases through while also keeping their economy going.
If you wanted to test 1.4 billion people every day you would need nearly 10 billion tests a week, or half a trillion a year.
Not to say they will test that many that often, but they will still need an extremely large number of tests for a long time. This will push the price of the raw materials up and China will probably want most if not all the tests they make for their own home market.
Now, ‘if’ while this is happening a new more dangerous variant kicks off we here in the UK and the government are screwed!
ODX (manufacturing) now Chinese owned so they will maybe produce for the Chinese market or highest bidder and ABDX up to full capacity supplying the USA and European market.
This leaves just Surescreen to supply the UK needs which is something they just could no way do on their own.
The funny good side of this scenario would be watching the UK government squirm and hear how on earth they try and explain their way out of how they let such a thing happen….. the not funny side would be as I said, we UK citizens will be screwed, dangerous variant spreading with no way to slow it down.

When Abingdon did their IPO the Market valued the business at £100 million (current MCap £15 million).
This was mostly based on them having one government contract for 10 million tests to be ‘probably’ produced over that coming year.
At the time this was almost the full capacity that ABDX could make in a single year.
They can now make 150 million tests a year. That’s over 12 million a month. So they could now fill over that government order every month, month after month.
10 million tests, Mcap of £100 million….. it gives a good idea of how high the SP could go here…. 150 million tests Mcap ?? BIG!

I've had a busy day today so didn't have time to digest the RNS properly. Just read it again.

"All raw materials required for production will be provided by the customer. There will be an initial technical transfer process, paid for by the customer, "
This is amazing as it means the £2.7 million contract value (minimum) goes straight onto the bottom line! Yes staff costs to manufacture, distribution etc but with no raw materials cost a large chunk of the £2.7 million will be profit!

It also represents access to the European market, with Vatic covering the US.
Very good contract from ABDX lots of fingers in lots of pies now, multiple tests in multiple markets...bring it on!

Good price jump at the end there makes me confident we will see another good rise tomorrow.
It often occurs that it's the day after a good RNS that the main rise happens as you need to get the 'sell on news' gang out the way on day one.

Any why would there not be?

"We continue to make commercial progress in other areas and look forward to updating the market in due course.”