Member Info for HappyDays2U

It's nearly always a red flag when companies delay their results, hopefully the opposite when they bring them forward!

A word on expectations, remember these results only go to June which is before Salistick launched. We will unfortunately not be getting any sales figures for that in this update (but maybe some clues) the numbers just need to be compared to the same period last year.

They said before it's the second half (now) of this year that they expected the turnover to materally increase so we will need to wait for the results up to December thus year to really see how Salistick is doing.

The whole market has been having a wobble for the last 2 days. A few panic sellers but I would say nothing to worry about... although totally agree! Some sort of update would be most welcome.

No one can be sure. Last year they released interm results towards the end on November.

It has to be said. Although currently very boring viewing here, just waiting for that next bit of news, it does look good that this is at a solid bottom price.

Low volume but the SP has held strongly to these levels. Hopefully I'm not jinxing it but I expect we will stay here (which is great) until the next bit of news which (trusting good, should be) will take the SP to the next solid higher level..... basically a nice derisked investment at the moment, chances of losing are smaller than the chances of winning.

The usual disclaimer, don't take my word for it DYOR bluuuur.

Waiting can be a boring, frustrating process at times (actually make that all of the time!)

I find cracking open a Guinness and reminding myself of their motto helps...."Good things come to those that...

I'm still very confident this will be the case here.

Well reminded Muck. ABDX have many fingers in many pies, it is , in many ways the ultimate business model as they can afford to have the odd loss, you only need one or two of your many projects to come good and your be fine.

The Mcap is still only £13 million and a product like Salistick can bring that sort if money through the door on its own. (Not this year of course but once more well known and trusted easy peesy!)

The one thing with a pregnancy test, is you will always only get a percentage of a very individual private market.

The tests you talk of are (as you point out) actually much more interesting and exciting from a investment view. These are the ones that could bring in mega government contracts. If the results and approval process all comes good it's a complete no brainer (still doesn't come with garentees as plenty in power that do in fact appear to be missing one at times 😉) but spend billions in treatment after the fact, or spend a fraction of the price diagnosing it early and treat it before it becomes a major problem, saving lives and billions of £€$ at the same time, I like to think it's garenteed to happen.

These aside, got a problem in future, check the symptoms with Doctor Google, then get in a panic as you are now moments away from death, book a Doctor appointment, told you need to wait 4 weeks!

OK, don't panic, get yourself a test online to rule out , or in the worse thing Google just suggested you might have and take it from there.... its the future!

I’m still trying to work out the connection between 2 billion plastic LFT cases sitting in landfill / the oceans each year, where they will remain for the next 10,000 years and lolly pop sticks?...anyone?

Anyway….

RNS 6th July 2023

Revenue for H2, at £2.9m, expected to be more than 2.5x that of H1 (£1.1m), with the increase coming from ‘several’ new projects commencing from late H1 2023.

We still only know what two (Salistick and Senzo) of these ‘several’ new (now one year on) projects was. Salistick only launched at the end of June (also end of FY23) so none of that £2.9m came from any sales of Salistick.

RNS 31st March 2023

‘The Company is currently working with a number of new customers across 11 different contract services projects in multiple areas (vs threes as at 1 July 2022) with two additional contracts signed, work on which will commence in Q4 2023.

Q4 2023 starts in 3 weeks’ time. Do we get to find out what these are?

Directors buying more shares at market value and sorting out the paperwork so they, and their main investors can all buy more if they want to. There is clearly (per the above) a lot going on in that ABDX office which we don’t yet know about. We are due news! as all these other projects will all / mostly come to fruition (i.e turn into sellable products) at some point.

I don’t want to build my own and others’ expectations up too much, as we might still need to wait it out for a few more months but we could have a “like the busses” situation forming here and a nice solid run of positive news heading this way. Two good RNS statements in the last month, keep them coming please the good folks of ABDX.

Absolutely loving this RNS, these guys know the future and what their target consumers want and expect.... and 'the material impact of the investment will have no the companies cash position'.... Well you cant spend money and it not change your forecast cash (profits next year) position unless you are still comfortably still in that position..... money is clearly flowing in nicely!

I should add. If a large buy order is given, expect plenty of MM shenanigans.

They will look to fill it without inflating the SP to quickly or to an unnatural height.

Any uncalled for / illogical SP movement up or down will be a sign something is happening in the background.

I must confess, I don't know if there are any rules surrounding this (ie time period that needs to elaps before the old concert party can start purchasing new shares in their new format?) But what I do know is MM's will never make life easy on us and show their hand. If a large order is given, it will be drip fed into the market.

Rule or no rule, I would expect a little wait before action is taken not to make it too obvious, then 2/3 /4 orders between 50 to 100k a day until the full amount is achieved.... I will be watching those buys carefully. GLA.

I think we can safely presume you don’t bother working out and agreeing these new groups between many people, do all that paperwork and notify the market unless some, or all of the group plan to purchase more shares.

Between them, they already own 35% of the company which amounts to around 43 million shares, so I doubt they have gone to this trouble for another few 100k worth, it will be a few million worth.

I guess the spectrum is, one of them just wants a cheeky little top-up, or I wonder, the other end is, they are 15% (18 million shares) away from a controlling stake. It would bring the security of fending off any unwanted takeover attempts.

Either or, if you already own a very significant number of shares and have the inside knowledge of what’s lined up in the future. You don’t put your effort and money into buying more of them unless you know that future looks very likely and bright!

It’s a bit deeper than that, in short, the people of ABDX suddenly became some of the most important people on the planet when Covid struck, the world market would have wanted their LFT expertise, so they could have profited from in all massively.

Instead, they did the morally right thing and responded to the Government’s ‘Call to arms’ and agreed to work for them. The spec from the Government was to produce an Antibody test (later realised by the government to be not very useful compared to an Antigen test) of which ABDX managed to make a very good one in a short timeframe period (ABC-19) and then began to produce it in mass per their contract. At this time, the Government realised they didn’t really have a use for the test so refused to pay ABDX the full amount for them and basically tried to blame them for making the wrong test.

ABDX had spent a lot of money maximising their manufacturing capabilities (capable of up to 150 million test a year) and employed a lot of people to manage that task all of which then lost their jobs as the government didn’t pay up.

It went to court and ABDX naturally won but the damage had been done. It was extremely harsh on them as they did all of the right things, but somehow came out of it very badly because of poor government choices and decisions.

All in the past now, that was then and now they are in a much much better place!

I'm not saying we are not manufacturing now, It's just not 100% clear and I wonder if it is a little hint about the USA market to come? Because what is clear "to scale-up for manufacture" is ABDX will be making more of them in future,which means we get more then just the UK and Ireland market.

Also my last post would tie in with the large Director share buys (at full market value) last September, I exspect this (if it has happened) is when the deal with Salignostics was struck.

Also worth noting from Mucks Post, this is what Salignostics is working on..

"Salignostics specializes in the development and supply of rapid tests based on saliva samples for early detection of pregnancy, Covid-19, heart attack, malaria, and other diseases. "

Imagine using just saliva for all that! Middle class American would spend a fortune, especially for the Hart attack one and ABDX are very much in bed with them now.

In the last 2 RNS statements.

"Abingdon Health has been providing Salignostics with contract development services to scale-up the Salistick™ product for manufacture and will continue to provide Salignostics with contract manufacturing services going forward."

I did wonder about this slightly cryptic statement, are we making them now or not?

With the FDA link, my guess is we are currently just a distributor of Salistick but the deal is, help us get FDA approval and as you are already a recognised and approved manufacturer in the FDA database you will be our US manufacturer and distributor as well...during Covid the BoD did mention about having the ambition to open up a manufacturer site in US as well.

"to scale-up the Salistick™ product for manufacture" means we will be making them at some point if not already now.

If you go with the figures on here over twice as many shares have been brought than sold today yet the MM's have dropped the price...why would they do that?

They want shares so are trying to encourage a sell off, it's not happening so exspect a tick up soon.

400 Superdrug stores and 298 Tesco, even if we said a very conservative, each store sells one test per day, that would be 254,770 tests sold a year.

We then have the online sales to add to that and I expect each store will be selling more than one a day on average. Once this is more well known it will take over the market, why ‘chose’ to use wee as a test sample when there is a saliva option available?

Then add all of the other tests ABDX already make / sell and the several new ones coming to the market in the next few quarters. Still a tiny Mcap, no debt, Management are major shareholders themselves, bullish RNS statements of ‘significant’ increases in turnover and activity, we can see they are constantly hiring to keep up with demand and now getting in there with some major supermarket distribution channels.

I don’t understand why some still seem a little cautious with this….everything screams great investment to me.

Excellent news, "every little helps" but Tesco is not little its big!

It’s a quiet day here at work so I’m just writing this to remind myself more than anyone else really.

The next 6 to 12 months here could be very big and profitable for us shareholders. The BoD statement, and target is to be a profitable firm in 2024. Even if they only make a modest profit the fact of a AIM firm making a profit always represents a massive milestone and turning point.

If you look at the entire AIM market, many firms make no money at all, many have turnover but not enough to cover development costs i.e. make a profit. Its only a very small percent that actually make any money, so here lies the ‘high risk’ factor of investing in AIM. The high reward part comes with, can you pick the one(s) that go on to make money someday?

Especially with Med sector firms, the start up cost to get a product they can sell takes many years and a lot of money so, usually many, many placings along the way, but if, and when they do start making money it can be well worth the wait as this gets re-invested back into the business to accelerate it. At this turning point they can suddenly go from making some money, to a lot of it! In a short space of time. Regularly, in this position they get snapped up by a bigger player for eye watering sums of money.

Patience is a virtue and al that….it can also be very frustrating just waiting and seeing this in between ups, and then slips back downs but I, (just reminding myself) for one don’t really care as this company has already gone through all those years, had all those millions invested in it, it has the products now selling with more in the pipeline funded for, the suppliers, distribution channels, staff expertise recruited and good reputation with its current, and potential future clients. The groundwork is all there and done, so they are now on the cusp of the above IMO. It should be well worth holding onto, into next year.

You could of course try and trade the ups and downs but I for one would not dare as one bit of good news (which could come on any day) could easily make this double in an instant and I would not want to be out for that.

Yeah I went into my local one as well which is a big store and it was their. In a prime position at eye level.

As the RNS said, it's only in half of the SD stores.. thats for now, it will likely be in all of them once word of mouth has spread a bit more.

I think if we imagined a world where this happened in reverse, so Women had always done pregnancy tests using saliva and then someone invented this great new one where you had to go to the toilet and wee on it instead ,,it would (rightly) be laughed at as an investment as it makes a simple thing more complicated and yucky on top.

Once people know their friends, Sister etc used Salistick then they will do the same...it will take some time but I'm SURE saliva makes much more sense than wee does to use as you sample so i cant see why it would not take off!