Member Info for HappyDays2U

3 more jobs at ABDX posted in the last 24 hours

https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Job/york-abingdon-health-jobs-SRCH_IL.0,4_IC3297365_KO5,20.htm?suggestCount=0&suggestChosen=false&clickSource=searchBtn&typedKeyword=&typedLocation=York&context=Jobs

These guys are on the up!
Are these new positions to fill the recently announced new contracts work or maybe loading up the staff levels for what they know (but we don't yet) is coming next?

Pumpkin,
Quite frankly I can’t be bothered to look it up as I have much better things to do with my Friday than keep educating you, but I’m quite confidant that you are also reading company accounts wrong.
Yes ABDX like all companies has had some good and some not so good years. Some of these were loss making but I stand by my comment that on the whole they have made more money than they have lost (profit making) and more years than not of the 14 they have been in existence they make profit.

Pumpky, everyone is an enthusiast investor compared to you!
Once again showing how little, you seem to know about the basics of companies and how shares in them actually works.
Your shares as well as mine and everyone else’s are 0.025 Ordinary Shares. Its just the par value of an ordinary share not the Market value!

Its in one of the RNS statements that the Government made it clear they will not pay anything until after the court case. We could argue its over now but lets face it, its always going to be the ‘outcome’ of the court case that is meant by that. We don’t know when this will be but it should be before the end of June.
Whatever the ruling is ABDX can go knocking on the DHSC door the next day and say “sooo, when will we be getting our payment then?”. If the DHSC still play hardball then ABDX can as well and threaten/start a judicial review. As the government have used the tests, they have next to no chance of getting out of paying for them so I’m sure an embarrassment in the courts is something they will want to avoid. Basically, something should happen very soon after the ruling IMO.
I agree everything needs a timeline. I am conscious that I have been thinking and sometimes saying on here, next month, next month but I do think the next month could be big.
Case ruling (highly likely) with a likely win for the government.
Payment made by the government 50/50 by end of June but I would say 90/10 likely by end of July.
Vatic test fully launched with good chance EUA given in this time.
Launching of the enhanced B2C e-commerce website due to happen Q2 2022
And the statement in the last RNS “We continue to make commercial progress in other areas and look forward to updating the market in due course”…. Maybe another nice surprise announcement or two?
Each needs a timeline that suits them, mine is at least to the end of this year. We will see what happens with Covid but we know for sure it will be with us and cases will go up in autumn/winter time meaning more testing required as well (Vatic / new European client could need many millions of test made and maybe Avacta test back in the mix). ABDX would have launched their App reader, hopefully have their Lyme disease, hepatitis C, and flu tests all on the market. Work with Deepverge tests complete with any additional work they get between now and then in the pipeline or completed. Most importantly of all, I’m expecting much healthier set of financial results. This the key for me. I’m not expecting knockout financials for the first 6 months of this year but they will surly be (better be!) much better than the 6 months previous, but by year end we need to see solid (I’m hopeful for profit excluding DHSC payment) results. Once full faith in ABDX returns (might be soon might need to wait until later in the year) this will fly in a big way. At the moment things appear to be going in the right direction (yes I know sadly the SP isn't) so I’m happy to hang around.

Meanwhile, ABDX are still ramping up the manufacturing Team.

Looking for ‘A Number’ of Production Laboratory Technicians
https://uk.trabajo.org/job-1276-20220520-6cc1ee390aa549de11ea3bcfd208163f?utm_campaign=google_jobs_apply&utm_source=google_jobs_apply&utm_medium=organic

And ‘A Number’ of Production Operatives.

https://uk.trabajo.org/job-1276-20220518-07182098da255dd2843c46c728f56198?utm_campaign=google_jobs_apply&utm_source=google_jobs_apply&utm_medium=organic

Read the job descriptions, there is no doubting what they are there to do. Factory line making and packing up tests. They have been advising for the ‘a number’ of positions for pretty much all of this year.

Jeez Pumpky you have shown some big time naivety there. ALL companies no matter how big or small have shareholders. You can’t register a company with Companies House unless you specify how you are dividing it up (shares) and who owns what percentage. Every company must have a minimum of 2 shareholders. I have a LTD, I own 99 shares in it and my wife owns the other 1.
The difference between a LTD and a PLC is if you want shares in a LTD you need to be invited in, you could go to your local corner shop now and ask if they would be interested in selling you some shares in their business if you liked.
PLC (the P standing for Public) means anyone can buy shares and they are much more easily transferable.
So well done Sherlock, hold the front page, Abingdon had shareholders before it became a PLC…. WoW I can’t believe you invest in shares and don’t know these basics.

Yes, I think the problem we have here is ABDX ‘Covid Stock’ label. Lots of investors got burned (if buying at the top) putting money into these stocks and the general feel is that Covid is now something in the past. If you don’t get the big government orders then there is no point or money in these stocks etc.
This is what is creating amazing bargains like here. It’s a stock that’s just currently out of fashion but this does not make it a bad business.
What people are forgetting or not seeing is ABDX was a successful profit-making company before Covid began. If we pretended covid never happened and Abingdon wanted to IPO now it would probably be valued higher than it currently is based on just their plant tests and other bits a bobs they do.
Covid testing is not being done as much as before but we are still talking 100’s of millions of tests being done globally each week and this is currently quite summer covid time.
Some are being paid for privately, some by companies some by governments but it doesn’t really matter as someone is paying for them, so this is still a massive new market that ABDX did not have before. Covid has also highlighted LFT’s many uses and familiarised the average Joe with them…basically massive free advert for ABDX and their products. Its given them the chance to expand massively, sign new contracts and have the money to develop new tests….yet, here they/us are valued at probably less than they would have been before Covid,,, why? Coz making money out of covid tests is over….No it isn’t! and even if it was ABDX business is still worth way more than £15 million.
Not including the Government payment I am confident ABDX will make profit (as they usually do) this year. Money always talks in the end; we might need to wait until the next set of accounts before the market sees this bargain and stops looking at it as a covid company and just a company that makes money well positioned in a growing sector.

Never say never Pumpky. The day may come where the government needs to go to ABDX on its knees.
Sooner or later China will need to accept they can’t lockdown the country every time a disease that will be with us forever and is very, very highly contagious brakes out. They also can’t let it rip completely so the only solution for them is to implement a strict Covid testing program to drip cases through while also keeping their economy going.
If you wanted to test 1.4 billion people every day you would need nearly 10 billion tests a week, or half a trillion a year.
Not to say they will test that many that often, but they will still need an extremely large number of tests for a long time. This will push the price of the raw materials up and China will probably want most if not all the tests they make for their own home market.
Now, ‘if’ while this is happening a new more dangerous variant kicks off we here in the UK and the government are screwed!
ODX (manufacturing) now Chinese owned so they will maybe produce for the Chinese market or highest bidder and ABDX up to full capacity supplying the USA and European market.
This leaves just Surescreen to supply the UK needs which is something they just could no way do on their own.
The funny good side of this scenario would be watching the UK government squirm and hear how on earth they try and explain their way out of how they let such a thing happen….. the not funny side would be as I said, we UK citizens will be screwed, dangerous variant spreading with no way to slow it down.

When Abingdon did their IPO the Market valued the business at £100 million (current MCap £15 million).
This was mostly based on them having one government contract for 10 million tests to be ‘probably’ produced over that coming year.
At the time this was almost the full capacity that ABDX could make in a single year.
They can now make 150 million tests a year. That’s over 12 million a month. So they could now fill over that government order every month, month after month.
10 million tests, Mcap of £100 million….. it gives a good idea of how high the SP could go here…. 150 million tests Mcap ?? BIG!

I've had a busy day today so didn't have time to digest the RNS properly. Just read it again.

"All raw materials required for production will be provided by the customer. There will be an initial technical transfer process, paid for by the customer, "
This is amazing as it means the £2.7 million contract value (minimum) goes straight onto the bottom line! Yes staff costs to manufacture, distribution etc but with no raw materials cost a large chunk of the £2.7 million will be profit!

It also represents access to the European market, with Vatic covering the US.
Very good contract from ABDX lots of fingers in lots of pies now, multiple tests in multiple markets...bring it on!

Good price jump at the end there makes me confident we will see another good rise tomorrow.
It often occurs that it's the day after a good RNS that the main rise happens as you need to get the 'sell on news' gang out the way on day one.

Any why would there not be?

"We continue to make commercial progress in other areas and look forward to updating the market in due course.”

I think ABDX went down to these ridiculous SP lows due to market concerns over cashflow.
Todays RNS along with the completion of the Vatic TT (now in manufacturing) along with the other new contracts announced last month puts an end to any cashflow i.e. placement concerns.
So, here is a 14 year old cash stable business valued at under £15 million.
£9 million was recently pumped into the expansion.
£9 million is owed and due (all/most of it) to be paid very soon.
New contracts confirmed, and new tests targeting a multi billion growing market in development.
The contract announced in today’s RNS is worth 63% (2.7M vs 1.7 TO) more than the full turnover for the last 6 months (June-Dec 2021).
Maybe it will take the market a day or two to work this all out properly.
Next to no risk, growing sector, growing company, contracts now being lined up in numbers and manufacturing being ramped up consistently.
They will work it out. My bet SP will be in the 20p rage by the end of the week.

Well, here it is! The expected turn in this companies’ fortunes is well and truly underway.
IMO by this time next year maximum ABDX will be manufacturing at full capacity. That’s over 12 million test a month!
By then ABDX will be producing 2 or 3 Vatic tests, Waste water monitoring with Deepverge, Lyme disease test on the market, pregnancy test, plus all the other tests they currently make and this is at a minimum. I’m sure there will also be many other RNS (new partnerships) in that time as well.
Then there is the launch of their LFT scanning reading platform (patented) and website selling directly to retail all underway. Oh, and that payment from the DHSC finally received.
With all that you will have a SP in the £’s.....its coming!

Good article calling the GLP out.
As I have always said they have no chance of winning the case. I think even they know that but winning is a bonus but not their aim.
Making the goverment look bad and getting the public to donate money is what they want most.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/05/16/why-jolyon-maugham-keeps-losing/

All good and fair points Jock but makes no diferance talking about them here.
People need to write/email their local MP's (especially if they are Tory) to say "I can't vote for you next time unless this gets sorted out very quickly!"
If enough do it they will need to do something.
Local/national press, TV stations polical radio stations...if we get these involved then things will start to happen I'm sure.

I remember when Omicron first got discovered in SA. Anyone looking at the Covid cases charts in SA within that first week or two could easily see that it was very clearly more contagious. Officially we were all being told by the scientist that more data was needed before anything could be determined….but hello! the cases line is going up practically in a straight line (never seen before). I don’t need a science degree to see for myself that its very clearly more contagious! Anyway, about 2 to 3 weeks later we get the headlines and a Boris TV appearance saying, “Its more contagious”. I remember thinking at the time ‘no **** Sherlock!
So big disclaimer, really too early to tell and could be other explanations…but! Current numbers out of SA where a new (5th) wave is getting started may suggest the new Omicron sub variants are more dangerous.
Hospital cases are currently low 2,634 but out of these 255 are in intensive care that’s 9.7%
At the peak of Omicron (original) it got to 9,368 in hospital with 741 in ICU so 7.1%
That’s 2.6% more in ICU comparing total number in hospital percentages.
Also, usually there is a 3- or 4-week lag before you start seeing deaths go up after you see case numbers going up.
Yesterday SA recorded 10,017 new cases making the 7 day average 7,685. This came sadly with 50 new deaths, making 29 deaths 7 day average.
Last comparable numbers were the 3rd December 2021 with 6,982 - 7 day average cases, back then the 7 day death average was 21 vs current 29 and rising.
Could just be less testing so cases are just much higher than recorded but SA have never had free testing like the UK so no good reason why this would be lower this time around.
Could all be nothing or it could be this is worse than we are currently being told. Like last time, by the time science has ruled things out etc it will be weeks before anything official is declared by which time it’s all too late for many.
Not the most tasteful of subjects and I hope I’m wrong but will continue to keep a close eye on these numbers.

Yep, there are several things that could put the booster rockets on the SP but I think none more so than Vatic getting the EUA.
It would make them the ONLY saliva test available for home use in the US with saliva tests clearly something they want for their young and venerable. It could/should put Vatic and ABDX straight into the big time!
That EAU could drop on any day. Already been with the FDA for 2 months....watch this space carefully.

Well worth a read.
US looking into testing under 5's weekly using saliva!
Note current test methods require sending saliva samples to a lab....at home instant(15 minutes) results they will love!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220511/Exploring-routine-saliva-testing-for-SARS-CoV-2-in-children.aspx

I’m finding it surprisingly comforting that the MM’s have clearly done all they can to stop this braking out today.
Keep in mind they are here (their job) to encourage and facilitate trade. The way they can discourage trade is make a big spread between Bid and Ask. Strait away this is wat they did this morning, a 30% spread to start with and now still 20%.
A company with near all time SP lows, three new collaborations now confirmed (Deepverge, Vatic and Bimelix) and Brighty points out these a BIG markets to. A court case that has been looming for 18 months now over, likely big payment from the DHSC due maybe any day, new Covid variant also likely any day. Vatic test going through EUA with Covid cases on the rise in the US.
Remember ABDX with its relatively small free float share pool.
No reason to try and hold this back unless you are low on shares, need to fill a large order on the cheap and/or think much bigger things will be coming soon IMO.

Good news, another test soon to be in the ABDX arsenal.
Quick Google search and the cheapest Lyme disease test I could find was £59 for a single tests meaning it looks like very high profit margins in this area.
Good work Abingdon keep it up!