Member Info for HappyDays2U

Jeeze you guys whipping yourselves into a frenzy.
Let's do some fact checking!
Avacta TT got completed by ABDX, on time and to specification.
Omicron also happened, to happen around the same time (December). It was after the first batch from the TT was delivered and checked for S&S percentages agaist Omicrom (which went into January) that it was declared by ABDX client Avacta, that it was not good enough agaist the brand new dominant verient for their satisfaction.
There is no way that ABDX would know any of this on the 1st December (Date the placing was announced) which was only 4 or 5 days after the Omicron verient was first discovered in SA so no samples to do checks with would have been available at that time. They hadn't completed the TT yet (10th Dec) so how could they know at that point in time that the Avacta test would not work so good against this brand new verient?

Every company is different, yes some cowboys out there but the vast majority of AIM firms do actually wany to succeed, its easier said than done with new technologies. Yes those at the top usually work it to a win for themselves whatever happens but they know they win much, much bigger if they make a success of the business than if they don't.
All of us PI's put together only have a small percentage more than the BoD (2 people) do. No one wins more than them if ABDX is a success story. I garentee this is what they want even more than we all do.

Yes it has gone disappointingly quiet on the Vatic front.
When TT was announced I do remember reading from the Vatic release, will be available for sale in May "subject to appropriate regulatory approvals".

So I guess they haven't got those yet and I'm sure from Vatic view, in hindsight they shouldn't have put a date (May) on it as no company has visibility on how long certain approval processes will take.

You would like to think we would be told if any approvals were rejected so guess we need to go with news will drop on it, when it comes which should be any day now as its now 10 days overdue?

So, the most likely next bit of news we will get will be the judgment on the court case.
I said it before but maybe worth saying again.
What I expect will happen will be the judge saying something along the lines that they “recognise” full normal government procurement practice was not followed with the contract award to ABDX.
This will be all the GLP need to claim victory and quickly post sensationalised headlines across all of their social media channels that the “court confirms our case that the government broke law” etc etc.
People should keep in mind and be aware that the GLP will almost certainly get their version (massively pumped up in their favor) of the judgement out before ABDX or the government can say theirs.
I can pretty much guarantee (GLP have 100% previous form on this) that the official verdict will be nothing like the GLP claim it to be.
I’m still 100% confident the GLP will lose but will still claim some sort of moral victory based on a carefully selected line or two withing a 20 odd page judgment document that says they lost the case.
Get the 'offical' verdict before making any judgments on what the GLP claim.

What's your reasoning for that Pumpky?
They clearly stated in a RNS what the proceeds of the fund raise would be spent on. It covers running costs for this year + all development costs for their new (flu etc) in-house tests. This was funded out at the beginning of the year so based on them not getting any new business.
Deepverge are paying for the development of their tests.
Cost of Lyme disease test shared with Bimelix.
Believe cost of flu test shares with Vatic, so it looks like the BoD have actually mitigated the original development costs allocated to make them shared and lower.
The £2.7 million contract is new money. All materials are being provided by the client meaning this will be a high profit margin contract.
The 10 million test contract (yes not yet confirmed but looking likely) will surely bring another 7 figure sum through the door (new business).
Vatic, even if they somehow don't get any new orders (very unlikely) they owe us for let's say half a million tests.

Yet, you still ABDX will run out of money by December...why?

The BOD are "hopeful" the ruling on the court case will come before summer (21st June) meaning its high alert time for that RNS Red dot next week.
A win and then goverment payout hopefully soon after will make ABDX cash rich.
The last placing funded them for this year including all their in house development costs. Since then they have announced a £2.7 million contract and what is looking a likely a 10 million test contract, they got Vatic TT done with pre orders being made. Basically it looks like they have more than enough cash and business to balance the books this year.

They still have plenty of spare manufacturing capacity so I would see little point in expanding this further at this point in time.
So I wouldn't rule out them maybe using the money (if/when received) for a takeover of a ODX or similar company, for the right price it make sense, but merger no way.

I am a bit confused if the tests will be in some way manufactured by ABDX or they are simply the sales man taking a cut for the supply?

Abingdon will be launching, in calendar Q3 2022, a new e-commerce site, which will feature a range of lateral flow self-tests and professional-use tests under the Abingdon Simply Test brand. The COVID-19 test is one of these Abingdon Simply Tests.

Either way it's all good, if just sales they keep the manufacturering capacity for something else and get their uplifts for sales of other tests (the sales team would have done a good job if this is the case as why go through a 3rd party for such a big order when you could go direct to the manufacturer?

Or they are making them (maybe just supplying some raw materials?) and making a bigger cut.

Would be good if they can clarify all this though.

It shows ABDX has 4 revenue streams,
Sales of other companies tests,
Manufacturing for other firms tests,
Manufacturering and sales of their own in-house tests.
Development charges for creating tests for other firms.

Always a great business model to have multiple revenue streams, if one side of the business ever has a bad period it can be propt up by the others.

Amazing news today, no-one can deny this is a company on the up after getting a lot of its bad luck out of the way.
Today's contract on its own will be worth more than the current entire Market Cap!
Lots of news still to come and these suprise new contracts are starting to become a very good habit.
At this rate I can see ABDX up to full capacity (150 million test PA) by the end of this year.

It’s pipeline stuff so it was never going to set the SP on fire.
I agree, as I think we all do that the Government payment is what is needed to put the boosters on the SP.
Investors ideally want 3 things.
Security,
Pipeline of work…i.e. solid looking future.
Good here and now work happening. i.e cashflow.
The last 3 RNS statements give us a good looking and expanding risk free Pipeline work.
The government payment will sort out the security part.
Vatic and/or a few other things could sort out the ‘Here and now’.
I’m not expecting the full picture but the next month should give us a good indication of what sort of picture we will get with the other two.
If the picture starts looking promising like the Pipeline stuff then the SP has an awful lot of ground to make up to suddenly price in the future, and even just to get back to sanity present day value (things have not been great but this company is still worth way more than the current Mcap).
I’m not saying it isn’t still a risk still but for me, an educated odds are in our favour good risk, but please all make your own decision on that one.

BTW, if you go over to Deepverge (DVRG) LSE page they have given a much more insiteful and detailed RNS todays news then we got here.

At least 5 different tests will be developed, all looking promising.

In the last 18 days ABDX have announced 3 contracts.
Collaboration with Bimelix Ab,
£2.7 million manufacturing contract with a mystery European firm.
Now test development contract with Deepverge.

In the next 18 days we will hopefully/should get resolution to the GLP court case,
News of some sort on Vatic test rollout.
Maybe news on a pregnancy test they were in discussions about manufacturing for someone.
Probably launch of their new e-commerce website.

Lots happening and lots more to come in a short time period of time.
It's all positive forward looking value going into the pressure cooker, sooner or later it will pop!

More good news indeed!
It’s a good a clever strategy making the most of being a 14 year established LFT developer. The specialist inhouse skill set required can take years to put together so clients need ABDX as much, or in time more than ABDX needs them.
Get clients to pay for the development costs (no risk) and to sign them up to make ABDX their exclusive manufacturer means ABDX are guaranteed to either make some money, lots of money or lots a lots of money.

Invfun,
I'm not the best person to advise as there are lots of sites that offer the service and I have only ever tried one.
It was the Financial Times, you get the fully live data and the newspaper side on top which was all good.
I stopped partly because of the fee (£35 a month) but maybe more so because I got a little addicted to constantly checking the trades of every stock (at the time it was 6 or 7) I owned.....I didn't get much work done!
Its good info but be careful, if you have faith in your stocks and a busy life then you can (and may should) live without it and save yourself some cash.

Jeeze STL, if you feel like that, you have a very strange investment strategy.

Agree that LSE data is poor. They do not show all the trades made either, you need level 2 for that.
Other sites look at the last trade and what was paid. Today that is higher than the last trade placed yesterday (closing price) so it shows as a rise.
LSE only logs changes in the Bid and Ask prices which is the same as yesterday.

It's a "get in" on the sidelines. Big buys cause SP movement up, where lots of 100k (shares) buys places periodically throughout the day do not.
A helpful MM or two knocking the price down when someone sells a few hundred quids worth and hiding buys they best they can and you get to build you position under the radar and as cheap as possible.

JB, you need to judge contract values against the relativity to the Mcap of the company.
£2-3 million contract for firms valued @ 100's of £millions is miserly but to one valued @ £12 million they are not.
2.5 million represents 20% of the Mcap. Its the same as a £200 million company getting a £40 million contract.
The Market may not be picking up on these things yet but it will do in time I'm sure.

Do completely agree with the goverment comment though.

I'm not sure why I'm giving any of my time to this but.

"it’s irrational hype that really winds me up (not that your post was). "

So what exactly was it then that wound you up about my posts? You wrote it, at least have the balls to stick by it and back your thoughts up with something.. anything!
It's easy to be critical of others, not so easy to put some effort in to back your statements up.

I don't get all this labelling of every post has to be either a ramp or de-ramp.
There's big middle ground where an investor in a company is naturally likely to see something in the business that is positive. Shares these thought and research that got them to invest and stay invested...its not ramping. I always make clear what is fact (backed up with links) and what is my thought...this could be, might be etc, not this is, this will etc.

LSE is here to share thought and research on investments. You need to understand the diferance between such places and your WhatsApp group with your mates from the pub.
You have nothing to offer....filtered.

Fair enough, please feel very free to filter me then. I don't wantto wined anyone up where looking at your posting history that's appers to be your only purpose.
It's probably helpful information for others to know the company they are/thinking of investing in is hiring people. I don't need to share this information but I do to be helpful to others so in that one post I have been more use than you 345 posts combined!

With this Monkeypox outbreak it gets you wondering if mother nature is giving us some clues of what is to come.
Let’s face it, there are way too many humans on this plant, and we have proven to be excellent at ruining it and the biodiversity of nature. We are also increasing in number at an alarming and unsustainable rate.
Billions of people crammed into our cities and all jumping around the plant giving the perfect environment for diseases to develop and then spread quickly.
We are the smartest creatures that have ever lived but we are not as smart as mother nature itself and the billions of years it took to develop and find ways to survive.
I hate to be Mr doomsday man, but I do foresee if not a new more dangerous Covid variant it will be something else.
As with Covid maybe with a massive global effort new vaccine / cures can be developed in a year or so but the gap between will always need to be filled with testing and lots and lots of them.
For this reason, personally I can’t think of a safer place to put some money than an infectious disease test creator and manufacturer.

I think that's well summed up there Zoom.
It the strange and annoying thing (when working against you) about AIM. It's actually not so much about picking the best company but picking what other people "think" is the best company.
The extra annoying thing with this one is people have lost faith because ABDX/BOD ended up with some really bad clients, first the goverment, closely followed by AVACTA. Both times ABDX did what their clients asked for but both times they came out looking the bad guys.
AIM sees many examples of companies valved in to 10's to 100's of £millions despite not actually making any money yet...reason, enough people believe they will make lots of money some time in the future. At some point in time they need to start making those £10's millions just to justify their current value, don't and then crash big time!
ABDX tiny Mcap, with incoming revenue and all the other stuff you pointed out equals very little risk. The £2.7 million contract they announced last week pretty much justifies the Mcap on its own.
I think many think like you say..so why the low SP must be something wrong so we are just in a who blinks first situation. When the SP moves those people will have the confidence there is nothing wrong, buy in, SP goes up more, more confidence, more people buy in and off we go in a big way.
When the fundamentals are there it always comes in time. You don't necessarily need a great RNS either, it sometimes just happens out the blue. One big buyer seeing the value and opportunity and off this will go.