Member Info for haggis_trap

Exit strategy. Good question. *if* the EPS flows as predicted then maximum value here comes with full field development of Rona Ridge. so : if you really believe in fractured basement (and are bold) then the smart option might be to hold longer term. basic economies of scale, and location, dictate these assets will be developed together. if this share reaches 1quid or more then its on path to go even higher. my guess is there will eventually be a take over providing a natural exit point for investors. good luck all. starting to become *very* exciting.

> I don't believe for one minute that anyone would retain their entire investment from 30p to �3 I agree. Everyone invested here believes this share is worth more than 30/40p. The big question is how much... Personally I am here for the longer term so not in a rush (been in since 2014 and only now making profit). So if this goes up to 60p then everything is going to plan. Though I agree that if it goes much above that (say �1) then it will take real nerves of steel to hold everything. No matter how well things are going there is always a risk. So : like yourself I would view a take over as clean exit. It seems a shame to have been invested for the risky drilling phase and then not see out the monetisation. However long that may take. By biggest regret with HUR is getting in to early. Getting out early could be equally disappointing. Perhaps best advice is to log out and leave this for 12 months. Then 24,36 <etc> ;-)

> Agree got to be worth at least a fiver per share considering the asset size. Doing simple maths. $5 a barrel x 2 billion barrels. Then it is not impossible. Bit it depends on HUR proving up all of the assets themselves over much longer period of time. Which I am guessing is unlikely. Not least because a major may jump in early *if* (.... as we all hope) the EPS appears to be a winner. Of course jumping in early means they will expect some kind of discount in return for sharing the financial and geological risk. Happy to be proved wrong on this though ;-)

@SpruceGoose2. Agree - a reservoir of this size in UK waters is big news. Not least when majors have been cutting back on exploration since price crash. > that the majors are willing to pay for a more de-risked (i.e. 'concept proven') asset, imagine BP bought Hurricane out at 2 quid a share tomorrow. most of us would be delighted. however the cost of full field development would be many multiples of what BP had paid to buy HUR out. new exploration wells, pipelines, rigs etc. WoS this all costs billions. now : *if* the EPS flows as planned then HUR really are in much stronger position. IMHO the longer terms plan has always been some kind of Rona ridge hub. economies of scale, yet to be 100% proven, are what makes this attractive.

I think the simple reason we don't have a partner yet is because any bids (so far) didn't meet Dr Trices own estimation of this "world class asset". It is easy to see both sides of the argument. HUR confidently believe they are sitting on several billion barrels. Oil majors like the sounds of it but wont commit big bucks until they are 110% certain... EPS goes a long way to closing the circle.

@adoubleuk. Agree - we can all only guess what is going on behind the scenes in various boardrooms. My experience of take overs is they usually arrive via unexpected RNS at 7am out of blue. We will be the last to know. Cross-collaboration is possible, or even desirable. UKOG giving plenty hints about that. Perhaps the sheer size of these assets, if proven to be 2.5 billion barrels, means more than one major will be required. Ultimately however HUR remain a minnow and have no intention of becoming a producer. the majors need to replenish reserves. If Dr Trice can prove the basement concept works in UK shelf then his can retire a happy and distinguished man. Though I remain reassured that technical challenge, as opposed to money, remains his main motivator.

the problem is that Lanc-Fax or Linc-Wick is less economic to develop than entire Rona Ridge hub. some joined up thinking, or a take over, is required for full field development of this size.

> I don't think there will be a bid for the whole company. With all due respect - I disagree. Full field development makes most sense if you included lanc-fax and linc-wick... Basic economies of scale. I have no idea how economics will play out - but the end goal of a Rona ridge jumbo development is obvious . I suspect that any major buying Lancaster would want first option on the other fields. The only reason they might be split up is if several majors join up to co-operate. Hurricane is a minnow that is potentially sitting on the largest ever oil field in UKC waters. The chances of them eventually being taken over are high. Take over gives investors a clean exit point - so would be welcome (at right price).

thanks. one day we will wake up to a take over RNS. IMHO it is the natural end game (.... all going well).

> 3 years. Hope you dont mind me asking what that is based on ? Not been following every thread.... My guess is HUR will be taken over before 3 years time. However would happily wait that long if it meant we achieved full value. i.e approx 5 dollars per barrel.

^ I think the simple answer is that full field development would cost much more than the simple cost of buying out Hurricane at 1 or 2 quid a share. Therefore the majors will sit back until the EPS flows as predicted. Before committing that kind of capital they will want to be 100% sure. I don't imagine wish Hurricane wish to sell cheap either - hence going the first steps alone.

Agree - I have always believed that selling all the assets together makes sense.... The end game is likely to be a take over. Probably when least expected. The larger economies of scale will be what makes full field development economical. Infrastructure costs for full field development will run to billions - rigs / pipelines <etc> Majors wont want commit this kind of cash to 50 year project until they are 110% certain. So I am not surprised that it hasn't happened yet - not least because Dr Trice will want fair value. A few thoughts... 1. The EPS is obviously key to proving these wells flow and thus the share price. 2. An early offer may meet HUR valuation for the entire Rona ridge. It might be that further drills / test wells are required before we see monetisation of the assets. Lancaster on its own less attractive than a full Rona ridge development. 3. If Dr Trice is able to prove that lanc-fax and linc-wick are 2 jumbo fields then final share price could be v.high. �2 or more is not out of question. However a major might take a risk and pounce before then. 4. If the assets are as large as we believe then it might take a joint bid from multiple majors to develop.