Member Info for haggis_trap

BP share price rallied from 2.30 -> 3.60.
It is a good barometer of general oil sentiment.

However recovery seems a little over cooked to me given the CV-19 uncertainty persists and no one yet knows when this is all going to end ? Things still likely to get worse, particularly in USA, before they get better....

Interesting on many levels :

1) Spark believe that Bader is extension of Halifax
2) They clearly believe in fractured basement, partly based on progress made by HUR

Does anyone know who is funding Spark ?

@MakinHay : exactly.
protecting capital is important.
on reflection I bet we wish we had all sold out HUR when it was still 30p then bought back in lower.
however that is easy to say with hindsight.
I am here longer-term rather than to trade (which for PIs is often a mugs game).

^ I have got more HUR shares than you can imagine.
balls deep in them since I first bought in 2014.
14p is a great price to buy - but dont want absolutely everything in one basket.

Nice trade. Also bought some BP on way down but 2 weeks too early (£3.16).
Just sold them (£3.20) would rather have cash out just now given state of world.
But will watch price.
Longer term they are a very good bet (but I think things will get worse before they get better).

Seems odd to be toasting 14p as a decent share price.

2 thoughts

1) $20 oil cant prevail forever
2) We cant stay locked down forever. Humanity will find solution to Covid-19.

Sit tight and strap in for long haul.
HUR could yet come out the other side in good position ($100 oil as global exploration cut with increased reserves)

Lowest ever share price...
People certainly fearful at the moment for number of reasons.

Time to remember a few basics :

1) Loss ony made when you actually sell.
2) All bets remain on the EPS which is performing well. Production upto 20K
3) Oil simply cant stay at $30 for longer than a few months.
4) CoronaVirus fears currently approaching peak. There will be lock-downs and global uncertainty but they wont last forever.
5) HUR have no debt and reasonable placed to ride the storm out.

Longer term all bets remain on EPS. That is what will ultimately dictate success, or failure, here.
A boat in Atlantic not a bad place to be right now ;-) In 12-24 months time things will be very different.
Strap in - rollercoaster ride ahead : but no reason to believe we cant ride it out.

Excellent post.
Something like BP is low risk.
Economy needs oil and $30 not sustainable long term so price almost certain to bounce back.
Buying now could be easy 50%+ return within 12 months.

HUR is a longer term play (v.good value at this price but I am not buying more as already have plenty).

Excellent post.
Something like BP is low on simple basis economy needs oil and $30 not sustainable long term.
Buying now could be easy 50%+ return within 12 months.

HUR is a longer term play (v.good value at this price but I am not buying more as already have plenty).

Indeed : one positive is that 100% of Aoka Mizu capacity is currently be used to generate profit for HUR.
If we had to tie-back Lincoln / Warwick that would not be the case.

I am reassured to see Crystal Amber buying more. Suggests there is no valid reason for current share price.
However something stinks - seems the share price has been held low while they fill their boots. Now slowly seems to be creeping upwards.

Agree - it would be insane to sell at current prices before the common market day.
Share price should be at least 30-40p (last 9 months production and ramp up to 20K bopd are massive positive).
In addition Lincoln / Warwick may yet be revisited in future.

yip - the non producing wells valued at more by the market than the one that actually is....

this will bounce back

Have a friend on inside who gave me little nod and wink about this ;-) However cant say much more for fear of releasing something I shouldn't. Contact believes that Hurricane remain confident longer term - recent drills on Warwick being viewed as technical challenges to unlock the puzzle rather than absolute show stoppers.

@RC2020 : you are right. total volumes likely to be reduced. However even if HUR never produce more than 20K bopd (let alone 40K bopd) the current share price, based on Lancaster alone, is a joke.

FWIW : take over always seemed like the likely end game here.
However the current circumstances stink given share price manipulation.

^ not sure the shareholders would be delighted with takeover at 15p?

Yip : takeover has to be likely... Most share holders would jump at 40-50p right now.
Which would be a steal.

Given the fundamentals remain good (no debt / producing 12-20K bopd) why would any one sell at these prices?
At least have some common sense and wait until the CMD in March when share price will likely bounce back as quickly as it dropped.

Share price makes no sense.
HUR producing 20K bopd. That is ~$1 million a day.
Say $300 million a year allowing for downtime.
Current market cap is just $360 million.

Company has no debt and claims there is no issue with production just last week.
There is no doubt the share price is being manipulated....

Why ? Short term take over bid is only explanation I can think of....

One things is for sure : why sell at these prices ?
Because share price could easily jump back to 30p just as fast as it dropped to 15p.

@Mandrill - most small oilers arent producing 20Kbopd per day with zero debt.

Each day hurricane is producing £1 million dollars of oil.
£30 million a month / £360 million a year.
For a current market captiliasation of just £316 million.

Makes no sense to me...