Member Info for haggis_trap

Indeed - could also imagine that Lincoln Crestal is similiar to Lancaster in 120 days time ?
Do one.

> Clearly Kerogen were impressed with Bob's homely presenting style too!

@IJWT : no, that would depend who kerogen have sold their chunk too.
and for what longer term reason ? given they retain a chunky holding and seat on board.

@IJWT.
One of the reasons I am invested in HUR is because they have an engineer / world class geologist at the very top.

Clueless bean-counters and marketing spivs won't be what delivers value here.

@IJWT. It is clear you don't understand this share or the fundamentals.

> What has the Spirit deal delivered to date, a 9 month delay in FOIL and a duster at Warwick Deep? Fantastic

Spirit deal has delivered 3 wells that Hurricane couldn't otherwise afford to drill on their own.
Warwick wasn't a duster - the data will be useful going forward.
Especially if the other 2 wells deliver. I see zero evidence that Spirit deal delayed first oil (that is your imagination).

West of Shetland is a wild and expensive area to operate.
A take over / rona-ridge hub will only be delivered with value to share holders if HUR can prove up as many of their assets as possible in short time period. That is exactly what HUR are in process of doing

>60% from Sound how did you do?

What is share price of Sound energy today ?
As long term investor I wouldn't go near them (and have already made 50% here myself).

IMHO : The Corporate Market Day was clearly perceived as a massive success.
Just look at the share price.

Of course uncertainty remains - but the potential remains massive.

> I base it on time to monetisation

Says the man who thought the Spirit deal was a bad one....

Assigning value of Lancaster on its own depends on EPS flowing for 6-12 months.

I also believe the more oil HUR can find the better. West of Shetland is wild and remote location. A full field development by major oil company would be massive 30 year project costing billions. The more oil HUR can find then more likely that outcome becomes.

Whilst your question is a valid one it is also impossible to answer accurately right now.
Hence the current share price!

great entry point *if* the next 2 drills deliver...
if they dont then share price and HUR is screwed.

@Foresight22
Thanks for reply. Appreciate the detailed thoughts. Without further information it is hard to intepret exactly what the Warwick result means. It could be sign of further issues to come : However I tend to share your more positive outlook.

Certainly the Warwick RNS was first time HUR disappointed in 5 years. Though it also shows benefit of Spirit deal (... entire assets will be appraised in shorter period of time : eventually leading hopefully to monetisation and share holder value).

So whilst I am now much more nervous I am inclined to give them benefit of doubt.

So : like many been invested in Hurricane since 2014. Posted on this board (infrequently) not long after.
Last 5 years been a real roller-coaster - but I am still lucky enough to be showing a modest profit.
Strapped in for the long haul. Have to say this is the first time HUR have disappointed with an RNS. However a frontier engineering project on such large scale was never going to go without hiccup. So we need to give them benefit of the doubt.

The Warwick drill is obviously disappointing.
Could mean many different things....

1) They simply drilled in wrong part of the basement with poor fracture connectivity.
2) Warwick and Lincoln not actually connected. Therefore overall reserves likely less.
3) The models are not as accurate as well all hoped.
4) Drilling a horizontal well without a prior vertical well was a mistake.

I am no oiler nor an expert fractured basement.
However reality is only one a few people have the information and expertise to interpret this result.

Reading "wellwellwells" excellent link (see below) it is clear that fractured basements are complex to get flowing - but potentially very rewarding when they do. Warwick was a disappointment but HUR will have provided useful data. My sneaking suspicion is that HUR perhaps got a little ****y and "shot for the moon" with this drill given someone else was paying? Though of course geology and rocks is Dr Trices motivation - so of course he was going to be curious what lay below Warwick.

All bets very much on Lincoln and the EPS.
If both perform as hoped / expected then this is a minor blip.
However recent RNS highlights why share price was only 40/50p as HUR still remains future, rather than proven, potential.
Strap in...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fractured-basement-reservoirs-big-bashful-belligerent-dave-waters/
Selling out now doesn't make sense. Still got 2x drills to go - both of them less risky than Warwick deep.

I think low share price is simple reflection that market and big players (i.e BP) want to see sustained flow rates before HURs potentially massive reserves are worth anything.

So while this company could / should be worth more than 50p no one is prepared to pay that just yet. Disappointing not to see share price rocketing higher : FOIL is a big milestone - well done all! The good news is that share price seems to have found a new base at 50p since oil Aoka Mizu opened the taps.

Longer term holders, who trust Dr Trices fractured basement modelling, shall eventually be rewarded.
Patience is key!

1) Wrong, the plan was always to ramp up flow rates over 6 months.

2) Boris as PM will lead to no-deal brexit in October : this will break up the UK.

Donation made to RNLI
Well done Soolsker. Shame you still don't / can't post!
Worthy winner and charity.

For sure, broken rope is irritation and resulted in 2 month delay.
However having waited since 2014 that is small change (... progress in last 4 years has been spectacular!).
Back then we could only dream of rumored jumbo fields West of Shetland.

What is ultimately going to dictate success or failure here is the EPS flowing as predicted.
I am entirely confident the rope and hook up technical issues will eventually be resolved.
Then we just need a little more patience to (hopefully) see oil flow for 6 months at rates Dr Trice predicted.
If that happens then this little delay will be long forgotten as nothing more than short term irrelevance.

First bought in summer 2014 at 40p.
Since then have topped up (or averaged down!) at 10p/20p and 40p.
At time felt outrageously bold - but now showing a decent paper profit.

Got more HUR than I care to admit - all safely locked away in ISA.
Still to sell a single share. Patience here will be rewarded.
Who cares about broken rope compared to bigger picture ;-)

FWIW : One great thing about HUR is that it is basically brexit-proof.
All bets are on EPS being a success and achieving flow rates.
Even a weak £ makes take over more likely.

I sold all my other UK stocks before xmas (because brexit is a total gong-show).
However I kept HUR for reasons above.

Cool photos : taking ship watching to whole new level :-)

> greeted with an ops update first thing Monday, informing us of a problem with hook up

damned if they do and damned if they don't.

*if* there is a problem then I would rather they focused on identifying issue and a solution.
then RNS can be issued in due course at appropriate time.

no one is going to benefit on a running commentary - though the social media generation might demand it ;-)

Chill - personally I am reassured that HUR is focusing on the technical challenges rather than manipulating short term share price with RNS spin. Lets leave them to get on with the task!

There maybe technical / weather challenges with hook up etc. That is nature of the game. However I trust the team to get on with their job and solve them. All that matters in the end is EPS flow rates. We will get there - short delay here and there is irrelevance to bigger picture.

Hmmm : invergordon is deep port that can take cruise liners.

Disappointing. Some kind of issue.
However engineering problems to be expected.
I trust this team to solve them and happy to be patient.
Everyone chill.