Member Info for haggis_trap

Ever since piper alpha a support vessel is standard for production platforms.

> big jump in the SP of any of my shares when the following first came on line

I think what we need here is 3-6 months production data to prove the reservoir (rather than the well) flows as modeled.

Once we have that data confirmed then big re-rate is inevitable. However I am unsure what kind of jump the hook up will bring.

> in the red having bought HUR shares in the 60s

Hold in there and forget your paper loss.
I bought some at 30/40p in 2014.
Held them down to 10p and all the way back up.
Would have been easy to sell out and walk away.
Glad I didn't.

All going to plan (touch wood etc) this will easily see 60p again.

Exactly.
Weak £ means

1) Take over more likely
2) HUR profits go up (as oil traded in $)

So even if Brexit is a total disaster HUR are more politcal-proof than most UK stocks.
Thankfully I have more faith in EPS being a success than Theresa Mayhem ;-)

Valid comment above. Though perversely a weak £ makes the over more likely. Success here still very much depends on EPS (as desperate as brexit fiasco has become)

^ UK being only oil producing country in world without rainy day petroleum fund is one issue. Norway is one of richest nations on earth. Scotland supposedly an imaginary subsidy junky...

However even in recent years the mismanagement continues. Norwegian continue to raise significantly more tax per barrel that UK. Tory solution to low price oil price environment was to slash tax revenue - then they didn't put it back up. Which has cost UK billions in tax revenue over last 5 years alone.

Camdenlad - is that before or after shambolic Brexit is cancelled ?

Luckily I sold off most of my UK shares a few months ago.
However HUR is basically politics-proof as all bets on EPS.

> Currently the tax regime is extremely favourable IN Scotland for O&G

What you actually mean is the Tories slashed O&G revenue to fiddle the GERs figures.
Why has Norway been able to generate much more tax per barrel for its citizens than UK ?
UK government handling of oil revenue is, quite frankly, incompetent.

https://resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

The great thing about HUR is that it is basically immune to Brexit.
All bets are on EPS : that really is all that matters.
Fundamentals remain the same.

The one scenario that might affect investors here is unlikely event of parliament sleep walking into no-deal.
Second Scottish independence referendum will be impossible to deny.
Ireland will be reunited. UK will rapidly crumble in blink of an eye as devolved nations take back control.

essential reading and a really good summary of the HUR story.

Good post Well Well

All bets remain on EPS.
Fundamentals remain the same except for a short term delay.
Seeing as we have waited since 2014, or longer, an extra week wont make much difference to outcome.
RNS had to be put out : otherwise can you imagine the ship watchers speculation and agitation.

Current share price is odd given fundamentals better than ever.
We clearly have a large seller.

My guess : If a fund (like Crystal Amber) has a large NAV (net asset value) in one single stock then their own rules dictate they need to sell in order to balance the fund. The reason people invest in funds is to have diversify portfolio and exposure to risk.

Now : if fund thinks share price is going to rocket they might view current period as a good time to sell and bank existing profits to be re-invested elsewhere (as opposed to having 50% of their fund value invested in HUR - which is what might happen if we hit £1 or more in future).

Either way - someone is selling for a reason and this is a small AIM stock subject to market fluctuation.
However the fundamentals remain unchanged and as good as ever.
Longer term share price still entirely dependent on success of the EPS.
Until then best to ignore the share price (unless buying more).

> Everything else between now and the results of our implemented plan is just market noise’

Exactly.
Share price until we get EPS results is irrelevant.

Short term share price is nothing to be worried about if you believe in fundamentals and long term story.

> for me it’s a binary bet in terms of do the wells flow as expected or do they not

I am not sure it is a binary bet.

We know the oil is there.

If well flow well them we have more oil.
If wells flow badly then reserve go down.

However we do know there is oil there.
The question is how much / how easily can it be extracted.
All bets on EPS.
But the answer wont be a simple YES or NO.

Short term share price is irrelevant (unless buying more).
All that matters now is the EPS.
If that goes to plan we are sitting on a real winner and will soon be FTSE250 company.

^ exactly.

there is technical / geological risk here.
however the potential upside is very large.
in many ways the spirit deal helps reduce the risk between 2x fields and parallel EPS.

good luck all long term share holders.

I would love to think human beings are smart enough to stop burning hydro carbons.
However truth is we are not....
The world entire economy indirectly depends on readily available oil.
If planet is switching to electric cars then we need to start building nuclear power stations en-masse *now*.
Sadly it isn't happening.

World population growing, oil is finite resource and China <etc> want increased living standards.
Depressing news for C02 emissions - but good for HUR.

Polite posters like JayKay1 always welcome in Scotland.

Brexit has exposed the real nationalists :-)
For what eventually economic benefit ?
Absolute madness....

@shedful.
Your a trolling juan-kerr.
However seeing as you asked for reply.
Scotland can't now remain in UK(55% 2014) and EU(62% 2016).
Therefore one of those votes will eventually be disrespected.

100k protesting on streets of Edinburgh last weekend
You comfortable brexit is going well up here?

Nice troll shedful
The numerous videos and photos dont lie.
This was clearly a *huge* march which took almost 3hrs to descend royal mile.
However wont be going drawn into aimless pissing match you are trying to start