Member Info for haggis_trap

22.5p ?

I bought a few HUR at 10p.
With benefit of hindsight I wish it had been more....

My initial purchase had been not long after float at 40p (and pre oil price crash!).
Prior to kerogen funding the share price crashed down to 10p and I was massively under water.
Averaging down at that point felt outrageously bold : but after Kerogen came in it was clear 10p was a bargain.

Still not sold a single HUR share accumulated since 2014.
Happy days have most certainly returned.

By the way - This thread demonstrates my initial point well.

Labour has lurched to left under Corbyn.
Tories have lurched to the right with Ress-Mogg and Johnson as back seat drivers.

Westminster politics has never been so polarised at a time when consensus is required.
Brexit is a sinking ship.

> xenophobia for wanting independence is beyond ironic.

Blaming foreigners and the EU for the UKs numerous problems is xenophobic.
Not everyone who voted for Brexit was racist.
But all the racists voted the same way.

> please address the Lady as either Mrs Thatcher or Baroness Thatcher

Interesting article on how Thatchers reign was subsidised by 1980s oil boom.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/britain-gained-300billion-tax-north-6390332

^ Tory vision for Brexit is held hostage by the xenophobia of Ress-Mogg and Boris Johnson.
Burn all EU rules so their hedge funds are unregulated.

A clear lurch to the right compared to both Blair and Cameron previously.
Westminster politics have become more polarised that at any time since Thatcher vs Kinnock.
And not in a good way given the Brexit crisis.

Between 'commie Corbyn' and the 'far-right xenophobia' of the Tories the UK is certainly in a real mess.....

> will either be very wealthy or broke

As humans it is easy to simplify everything into binary terms. However it is very possible that even if the models are wrong we simply have less barrels to extract than expected. I certainly don't imagine that Lancaster contains either "0" or "2 billion" barrels.

There are all sorts of external factors that also need to be considered.
Early take over <etc>, Price of oil, politics <etc>

Of course this share is high risk, with massive potential upside. But that doesn't automatically mean the outcome will be one of two extremes. I do believe everything depends on EPS - but I don't see that as stupidly risky, more like a very educated punt.

The HUR share price between now and FOIL (Q1 2019) is irrelevant. All bets are now on the EPS being a success. If Lancaster flows as predicted (... which I believe it will) then share price will be much higher than present. It really is that simple.

Best to log out and wait until January. You would be mad to sell before then and arguably invested for wrong reasons. In short term it really doesn't matter if this is 50p or 40p (... unless you are buying more!).

Good luck all.
Patience is key!

Great little find.
Correleates with previous hints that a short weather window / sub 2m waves in Nov or Dec could maybe lead to early FOIL.
Good luck all.

We can all dream of £2 a share let alone £5.
As ever : EVERYTHING depends on the EPS.

Assuming that flows as predicted (... which I believe it will) then this is worth a lot more than 50p.

Assuming all goes to plan and HUR goes > £1 then when do you sell ? Logical decision would be to take some profits. However with Lancaster de-risked there would be no reason why Halifax / Warwick couldn't add significant further value.

Hopefully a take over will provide clean breaker for investors.
Good luck all.

share price until FOIL is quite frankly irrelevant ;-)

sit tight and patience will be rewarded.

^ politics of blame.

the EU and membership of worlds largest single market not responsible for the UKs many social inequality problems. the elephant in the room is that the poorest parts of UK are where the traditional industries used to be located. Glasgow, Liverpool and Newcastle used to be the centre of UK industry and wealth generation. Ship building, steel work and coal mining never replaced.

> we.ll see just what a money pit it is/was

@boyzee. you sound like an ill informed UKIP'er.
EU was never the root of UKs many problems. politics of blame and xenophobia.
the 1% of GDP we paid as EU members more than recovered in benefit of being part of worlds largest single market.

Indeed EU economies are now growing why UK has slowest of G7.

> but that's just sophistry.

@Coralpart. CH, Iceland and Norway are not in the EU.
The basic problem is there was no firm manifesto for exactly what Brexit meant.
To have binary referendum where one outcome was not defined was careless.

@shedful. An independent Scotland inside the EU would have far more autonomy than present.
There is no paradox in voting YES to independence (2014) and REMAIN (2016).
Indeed SNP have higher EU support than any other party (only ~35% voted leave).

@injameswetrust. we you talk of 'generous offer' what you actually mean is dividing the 4 freedoms (people/goods/services/capital). that will never happen. if the UK is allowed to cherry pick and get a better deal than members then block will fall apart. a true single market is very different from more limited trade deal. however it is clear UK wants 3 out of 4 free movement without the oblogations such as ECJ / budget payments.

> Brexit isn't as difficult as appears, the establishment simply doesn't want leave in any way,

The basic problem is that it was never clear what Brexit meant due to lack of leave manifesto. To not define one option in a binary referendum was negligent and careless.

Now : Future trading relationship was always going to be one of these options…

1) EEA (like CH, Norway or Iceland)
2) Customs Union (like Turkey)
3) No deal / 3rd Party

All of these are very different types of Brexit.
However what did the UK vote for ? What is the will of the people ?

At each and every stage the Tories have made a complete and utter kunt of implementing Brexit.
IMHO this is because they have never been honest about the future trade options. Rather than be realistic with voters about 3 options above they perpetuated the lie we could leave EU but maintain single market benefits.

There was never going to be a bespoke deal – the idea of a negotiation was Boris Johnson fantasy politics.
Rather : it was always a case of agree divorce bill then decide which existing future trade model you want.

If people are disappointed with Brexit it is because they naively believed Tory / UKIP lies leading to false expectations. We cant be in and out of the EU at the same time as Boris would have you believe.

> some countries pretend to have free movement

you are confusing free movement with illegal immigration.
a common tactic of UKIP <etc>.
however there are plenty other places to debate Brexit / EU.

in reality *everything* here depends on the EPS.
the share price might go anywhere between 40->55p until oil flows in Q1 2019 - but ultimately that is an irrelevance.
all bets really are on oil flowing as predicted.
brexit (despite being a shambles) wont affect the fractured basements ;-)

I think Brexit is a total shambles - no such thing as a good Brexit for the UK.
It is all about minimising the damage now.
Indeed a hard Brexit may lead to independent Scotland and reunited Ireland.

However : The good news is that HUR is about a Brexit proof stock as you can get.
People will still need oil for many years to come...
Plus if the £ crashes further I reckon that simply makes a takeover more likely ?

I have been invested here, since 2014, for the longer term. It is my belief that maximum value comes with full field development of entire Rona ridge. Basic economies of scale dictate to me that a major will want all of the assets if they are to invest in the infrastructure required. Lanc-Fax and Linc-Wick are both ultimately 30 year oild field developments requiring pipelines and production rigs in wild waters West of Shetland. The cost for any major oil company buying in will be huge - hence the reason they need to be 110% certain.

Now : Lets imagine the EPS is a success. I think it will be but don't want to assume anything or jinx it ;-)
After 6 months production the share price could be £1 or more. If you have been accumulating these shares in an ISIA over a few years then the temptation to sell some is obvious. You will already have a multi-bagger share with exceptional profit.... However full value for the entire project clearly wont be reached. So it seems counter intuitive to cash out early.

Excuse me for dreaming : Cant imagine many complaining about such conundrum / problem.
My gut instinct at present is to remain locked until the end.....
However it will take big hairy balls to hold on while the rest of the assets are proven up.
Ultimately I hope (... and believe) that a take over will take this decision out of investors hands.

Good luck all!

Something is up : though just a feeling based on steady rise and big buys

> unless you emigrate to a third world country (africa , the phillipians or scotland ;-)

Scotland a third world country ?
The real irony being that Scottish oil has subsidised entire UK economy since late 1960s...

Hang your head in shame.