Member Info for haggis_trap

I think my problem is we are one RNS away from disaster.
If Lancaster has any issues that that translates directly to Lincoln / Warwick.
For me the geology and models under scrutiny following the last 2x drills (jury is out).

All bets really are on the EPS.

Been invested here since 2014 as longer term holder.
Haven't trade the stock / sold a single share until now.
However I am now out (all be it on a modest, profit).

Felt melancholy when I pressed the sell button.
Have emotional attachment to this company - however something has spooked me.

1) DSPP analysis of the water-cut is a concern (though it might be panic on limited info).
2) Last 2x RNS have been deliberately vague / contained little positive information.
3) Warwick Deep and Warwick Crestal both raise more questions that answers. Makes me questions the models / geology.
4) Little positive news on horizon for a little while means share price may drift lower.

Ultimately success here is very much dependent on volume. For take over a major will want enough oil to make full field development WoS economical. Right now all bets are very much on Lancaster EPS. *IF* it did have any issues then the share price would get hammered by at least 50% overnight (plus there will be questions over Lincoln).

FWIW : I still believe in the company and their integrity. Excellent board of directories and technical vision. However it seems to me the potential risks (however small) currently outweigh the short-medium term upside. Basically I need to protect capital and would be back under water if price drops <30p.

FWIW : Once the concerns above I answered I may very likely buy back in the future.
Time will tell (it may even be that I need to buy back in at higher price to mitigate the risk.... )

An 8% water cut was listed in Septembers RNS.
This isn't exactly something new. 7.5% seems to be within expected range ? (5-10%).
However an non-geologist I appreciate the comments above...
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hurricane-energy-plc/rns/operational-update/201909020700068019K/

You would think those invested in North Sea (/ Atlantic) oil would realise Scotland's is not a subsidy junky ;-)
The jock-baiting comments above don't paint a healthy picture of the union.

@buffet1. English brexit nationalism has ruined the UK. Scotland will soon be independent. Dry your eyes.

> Don't speak nonsense; plenty of Brits living all over the world.

Right now the EU (free movement) is what allows you to live in Spain.
Post Brexit it will be up to the Spanish government if they let you in.
Most likely it will be a visa system with short stays limited to 3 months.

@Daltry : if the Tories get a majority you wont have option of living in Spain.
Brexit will end that privilege.

> With the SNP and then destroying Scotland's only income?
Westminster has been robbing Scotland of North Sea oil revenue for 30 years.
Then has the audacity to accuse Scotland of being subsidy junkies.
Independence from the brexit clown house by the Thames can't come fast enough.

> Comms to Lancs have been observed?

Assumption was always that Lancaster connected Halifax.
Warwick to Lincoln.

There is a great big fault between them : so would be major surprise if Lancaster communicating with Warwick.

So : The big question.... Are the gauges left in Lincoln well picking up pressure changes from recent Warwick drill ?
If so then HUR really have hit the jackpot. As a non-oiler connectivity seems like the evidence board have been seeking to prove this is a jumbo field.

^ for sure : however until I read the RNS I wasn't aware of any speculation.
all they have done is add some fuel to the flames.
nothing to see here (... just yet)

Agree - Ask yourself what is the companies motivation for this odd-RNS ? One theory is they have hit the jackpot... Before announcing news to market they need a little breathing space to sit down and proper analyse the results.

Odd RNS....
Though it seems most are reading it as a positive.
Nothing to see here / move along everyone ;-)

I think longer term plan to get off AIM will help get the story out.
By market captialisation this is easily FTSE250 firm.
Now we have profit re-listing on a proper market will be much easier story to sell!
This remains a solid medium (2-3 year) investment.

IMHO takeover always likely to be the end game.
To achieve share holder value the company need to prove up as much of Rona ridge as possible.
You also don't admit to potential buyers that take-over is desired. Pretend you can develop assets unassisted.
Value here comes in joint full field development of Lanc-Fax and Linc-Wick.
HUR now well on way to achieving that and de-risking the assets.

Anyone got link to Equinor rumour?
I reckon board are very confident they will eventually sell company for ~£2 a share.

I suspect purpose of the EPS is to avoid needless speculation about why they don't continue to ramp production up.
I read it as a positive RNS. The fact they plan do a DST on Lincoln is great news (they never even got that far on Warwick deep) : so potentially a wee nod and wink from the company that all is good ;-)

^ However : lets keep brexit chat relevant to Hurricane.

The good news is that I see this stock as being much more Brexit-proof that most other UK stocks. Mainly because a weak £ increases chances of take over (so long as the EPS keeps performing!)

@BruceJamieson

> It does seem that Scotland is hung up on Brexit.

Of course : Scotland voted remain by 62%.
No deal is being imposed on us.

> The population of Scotland is rather under 5.5 million.

5.5 million : about the same size as many EU nations.

> 80% of its expirts are to England.

Does your 80% include the oil / gas / water and electricity that Scotland exports to England.

> So tthe EU is a total irrelevance to its economy.

Nonsense. UK governments own forecast is permanent 8% reduction to UK GDP as result of no-deal.

> And now Sturgeon in spite of her name is happy to sell out the entire Scottish fishing industry without demur. You could not make it up.

Fishing is a tiny part of Scottish economy these days. 80% of quota landed by just 5 families. Million pound trawlers employing Lithuanian deck hands. Most of the fish landed currently exported to EU. Fish migrate across borders, so even out of EU something will need to replace common fishing policy (if stock levels are to be maintained).

> You will note my name and my father was killed in WW2 fighting for a Scottish regiment.

And ? My own grand father fought in WW2 also.
Would have voted YES in a heart beat.

I despise brexit. However I feel comfortable HUR is a relatively Brexit proof stock.
Why ?

1) Weaker £ makes take over more likely
2) EPS flow rates is the only thing that matters short term.

It seems probable to me (as a Scot) that no-deal Brexit will lead to break up of UK.
Interesting poll published today shows clear lead for independence. Scotland really dont like Boris Johnson.

However I don't see independence as a risk to HUR. Indeed I held HUR shares over the 2014 vote. Oil and gas would be an important resource for newly independent Scotland. Norway (for example) has done a much better job at promoting investment and boosting production in its oil sector than UK.

Interesting news below. Next 2x HUR wells will likely be drilled before this concludes. So I guess little short term concern. How will be fascinating to see who might buy in....

"Centrica is selling its 69% share in Spirit Energy, as it seeks to focus on turning around its troubled core business in energy retail. "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49169622