Member Info for haggis_trap

Was indeed on royal mile with my 4 year old son and ~100k others.
Nice afternoon out in sun : huge turn out

Short term share price here irrelevant unless buy more.
All bets on EPS

Was indeed on royal mile with my 4 year old sun and ~100k others.
Nice afternoon out in sun : huge turn out

Short term share price here irrelevant unless buy more.
All bets on EPS

All the best HTL & good luck.
From a distance i have always enjoyed your insightful and positive posts on here and iii.
Terrible news - but HUR remains a great investment for your kids future.
Hopefully you will fight this and be here for much longer though!

All that really matters now is the EPS : and a weather window to get it hooked up.
No point getting knickers in twist about the boat sailing away a few days late.

Chill : things about to get very exciting...

With market cap of ~1 billion HUR is actually inside the top 300 biggest firms in UK.

Remarkable for a small firm of 10-20 people, no profit (yet) and oil still to flow...
Not least given these funds were raised in low oil price environment.

Good luck to all long term holders.
The real fun starting soon....
Squeaky bum time / but exciting as hell.

> Maybe people are selling shares so they can buy more shares cheaper,

Aye - good luck to them...
Anyone who thinks they can predict a dip and then buy back in on the rise before FOIL is delusional.
For educated investors his is clearly a longer term bet on the EPS being a success.

Though why should I personally give two hoots about day traders hoping to turn a fast buck ?
Well done if they manage - but IMHO it is a gamble rather educated investment.
Particularly with this share given last 12 months upward trend and anticipated news flow.

Of course there will be daily rise / falls here.
However care to predict the exact share price in 2 weeks time ?
Me neither...

The only rumor I heard of FOIL in 2019 is from this board...

Frankly it doesn't matter if FOIL is actually DEC or FEB.
What actually matters is EPS flows as planned / forecast.

Until that point share price is irrelevant unless buying more.
Anyone selling before FOIL has bought in for questionable reasons.

^ sustained low price of oil remains biggest 'global factor' that could sink us here.
though ironically low oil price is what allowed HUR to drill Lanc-fax and Linc-wick cheap.
could we have afforded such rigs otherwise ?

though one reason I am invested is because I believe oil has been oversold.
like it or not : most aspects of daily human life remain dependent on oil.

beyond that i strangely see this share as brexit-proof and robust to external effects.
any success or failure will basically depend on the company delivering via EPS.
even a low £GBP makes take over more appealing...

@Genghis15 : identical thoughts myself.

Have also held since 2014.
In those days talk of 2 jumbo fields were just a dream / twinkle in Dr Trices eye.
Since then we have had ...

- Original HUR share price dip to 10p (prior to Kerogen coming on board).
- 2x very successful drilling campaigns on LancFax and LincWick
- Round of Kerogen funding plus subsequent dilution for EPS.
- Spirit Energy farm in
- Oil price crash, and subsequent recovery!

Like yourself I am slightly frustrated share price isn't already higher given the success in face of adversity.
It has certainly been a roller coaster. However on the bright side my average is low (30p) and all my shares wrapped up in ISA.

It really now feels to me like we are reaching the end game.
Spirit Energy deal means entire Rona Ridge could be proven up within 2 years.
Assuming oil flows as predicted then market will soon need to make major readjustment.

The real value here comes in proving to majors that Rona Ridge is worthy of a full field development. The location, WoS, means the pipelines and rigs will cost billions. So of course the majors want to be 110% certain before committing to a 30 year project...

Good luck all.
Share price between now and FOIL basically irrelevant.
All bets on EPS.

> Can anyone shed any light on the recent price action?

Share price until we get FOIL is irrelevant.

All bets here are on the EPS : now 2x EPS given the Spirit deal :-)
If Rona ridge works as modeled then HUR has real measurable value.
At present we are just future potential - hence the 50p valuation.

Despite all of that i consider this is to be educated bet with massive upside potential in longer term.
From geological perspective the board are world class and have a point to prove.
Patience will be rewarded.
However Spirit deal will now answer most of the unknowns within 2 years.

Some simple fag packet maths....

Lancaster EPS cost £500 million via dilution of shares.
Lincoln EPS will also cost £500 million but this has been funded via farm out.

We now have 2x EPS running in parallel for zero immediate cost to Hurricane. A good deal for both parties.
Given Spirit Energy are funding 50% of Lincoln EPS (and all upfront costs) then they are right to ask for half of the oil via farm out.

The Spirit Energy farm out is basically the kind of deal the board originally wanted for Lancaster - but couldn't obtain in low oil price environment at that time (2017). We were never going to prove up entire Rona ridge and maintain full control of all assets.

^ exactly.

the real prize here comes from proving up the Rona ridge assets as fast as possible.
right now Hurricane has no value beyond future potential.
this deal means you share might be worth £1-2 (or more) within a short 2 year time frame.
without the deal you could easily be waiting 5+ years for proper monitisation.

have a look at the presentation on Hurricane website.
we will now have 2x EPS running in parallel.
time scales have, as result, come in massively.

to get the Lancaster EPS funded we need to take a 50% dilution.
similarly to get the Lincoln EPS funded we also needed to take a 50% farm out.
given Spirit are funding half of the Lincoln development they likely want half the reward (and associated risk)

full value here come with proving up the entire Rona ridge and then selling the lot to a major for full field development.
for a company started in a garden shed Hurricane are punching well above weight.
consider yourself lucky to be invested at this stage - exciting times.

85p
Wateraid

FWIW : I have always said majors (or conglomerate of majors!) will be interested in all of the assets at once.
Basic economies of scale make it cheaper to develop Lanc-Fax and Linc-Wick in parallel.
A full field development of Rona ridge would require production rigs, pipelines & infrastructure.
Developing this site to be the next Clair / Jan Svendrup is a multi billion / 30-40 year project.

The aim of HUR is to prove it all up and then monetise.
Exciting times.

Patient holders will be rewarded.

Hurricane have the following presentation on their site.
Essential reading.
Check pages 5 & 6 to see how the Spirit Energy deal brings in time scales massively.
By Q2 2021 we could have proved up all of Rona Ridge into proven reserves.
Achieving this milestone / proving up fields is how full value will be unlocked in Hurricane.
Good deal and exciting times : the news flow is going to be very busy for next 2 years.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media/Files/H/Hurricane-Energy/documents/presentations/20180903-Hurricane-GWA-Farm-in-Investor-Presentation.PDF

"The market speaks, the deal is worth 5p"

Because HUR was always about future potential.
Nothing has changed on that front.
All bets are simply of 2x EPS rather than 1x EPS.

> about 25% of HUR's reserves

We don't have 2C reserves.
HUR have some very promising exploration wells and expectant investors who pumped in a cool 0.5bn.
However : what is the value in the company at present ? And in the future ?

I would argue the value of HUR is almost entirely future potential as opposed to existing assets.
Future value comes from turning our assets into proper 2C (contingent) reserves that can be sold to a major for full field development. The EPS was designed to achieve that goal, rather than generate revenue.

This is a good deal : we get a parallel EPS on Linc-Wick and Lanc-Fax.
Which means the end game (likely a take over) can be achieved faster.

What this deal says to me is that HUR plan to prove up the entire assets before selling :-)

For those with patience and longer term view this is great news.

@Fred_Bloggs

If you think this is a bad deal then you simply don't understand the strategy.
HUR aim to provide maximum value for shareholders by proving up as many of their assets as possible.
If both Lanc-Fax and Linc-Wick can be turned into 2C resource via EPS then we are sitting on a gold mine.
At that point HUR (75%) and Spirit Energy (25%) can sell up.

Todays news is simply another step towards the eventually end-game of proving up the entire Rona Ridge.
It was always going to be tricky for HUR to do this themselves / unsupported. Spirit Energy coming aboard help things move faster (though of course they want a share of the profits).

Fantastic news.

Allows Linc-Wick to be developed in parallel with Lanc-Fax.

Basically we are swapping a 50% farm in on (on unproven but promising resource) for a 2nd parallel EPS at 500 million. Clever piece of business from the board.

Economies of scale dictate that full value here always came with proving up all the resources for a full Rona ridge field development. However such development was always going to cost billions (rigs, infrastructure, pipelines) and be a 40-50 year multi-billion project for a major like BP <etc>

My initial reaction

- More oil proved up faster.
- improved cash flows once both EPS are up and running.
- Risk spread between Lanc-Fax and Linc-Wick.
- Commercial partners see this project / fractured basement as commercially viable.
- Keeps any major investors on their toes.

This deal allows Hurricane to transfer massive 2C resources into 2P in the fastest possible manner. If you are a long term share holder then that is great news. Ultimate end game may yet be a take over and full field development of entire Rona Ridge (like Scotlands Jan Svendrup jumbo field).