Member Info for haggis_trap

DR Trices departure, without much explanation, clearly spooked many into believe there is a major "issue".

The new board all appear to be high calibre. Hopefully none of them want to be associated with sinking ship.
Time will tell. I remain invested for now : primarily because selling at current price would make-real a large paper loss.

^ this.

1) Longer term the price of oil will eventually bounce back. Humanity is smart enough to find solutions to covid

2) Based on evidence in public domain I believe that HUR can continue producing. However the share price clearly suggests the markets don't trust hem...

Jeez : at 5p a share I am tempted to average down. Problem is that I am already baws deep in HUR.... Don't really want all my eggs in one basket. Not least given this has become a binary bet. If the 6 well keeps behaving then the share price will bounce back to 20-30p no bother. If it doesn't then long term holders are screwed. For now I hold to see what direction the new board are headed. They seem to be decent calibre and I assume none of them want to be involved with sinking ship. So far I am not impressed with perfect news vacumn and uncertainty they have created. Next RNS better be decent...

Beverly Smith appears to have been brought by board as high profile director. Remit will be to polish the company public profile and monetise (sell) the assets within 12-24 months to highest bidder. Achieving fair value requires clarification on the reservoir performance / uncertainty over water.

The one advantage of a re-worked 7z is that it could prove the water is perched.
However if Lancaster 8 well is required / planned then why take the risk...

I think we would all love to know why Dr Trice is no longer CEO ?

1) The board no longer trust Dr Trices model.
2) Dr Trice disagree with board (on either 7z re-entry / shutting off 7z / OWC model).
3) The board need someone to blame for the share price.
4) The board plan to sell HUR on the cheap as soon as possible.

In reality it is probably a mixture of all 4 ?
Currently the share price looks like a binary bet.
Either its massively oversold or the game is a long-term bogey.

The one advantage of a re-worked 7z is that it could prove the water is perched. However if they an 8 well is required / planned then why take the risk...

I think we would all love to know why Dr Trice is no longer CEO :

1) The board no longer trust Dr Trices model.
2) Dr Trice disagree with board (7z re-entry / shutting off 7z / OWC model).
3) The board needed someone to blame for the share price.
4) The board plan to sell HUR on the cheap as soon as possible.

In reality it is probably a mixture of all 4 ?
Currently the share price looks like a binary bet.
Either its massively oversold or the game is a long-term bogey.

@Mr.Zarniwoop : no doubt I am not the only long term holder feeling the pain here.

Thankfully I don't need the cash out - so happy to sit tight with shares in bottom drawer.
That said this does now feel like a binary play.
If Lancaster behaves then this will certainly return to 30p.
If it doesn't then LTH are in big trouble...

> If the shares reach 25-30p it will be as the result of some good news on profitability

Fully agree. If / when this recovers back to 30p then there is no reason it couldn't go back to 60p or higher in due course.

However if BP offered 25-30p a share tomorrow I think most long term holders would take it given recent slump ?

First bought in at 40p in 2014. Since then added at various amounts : Some as low 10p in 2016.
My average price is about 25-30p mark.

Never sold a single share as I believed in longer term future of the company and Dr Trice.
Never did I expect the share price to plummet as low as 6p!

Has certainly been a roller coaster ride. At 60p this was the biggest paper profit I had ever made.
Right now it is the biggest paper loss I have ever made. Holding tight, as despite the technical and covid oil-challenges there is clear potential and upside in the company. Steady production of 12K and $50 oil should see this back in 20-30p range.

Like many I bought in on the possibility of 2x jumbo fields (Lanc-Fax / Linc-Wick). That dream appears gone - therefore the risk-reward ratio has changed. This certainly wont be jumping to £1-£2 anytime soon ;-)

If BP or Shell wanted to offer 30p for my shares tomorrow then I would happily take it (.... and put it all down to experience).

25-30p and I am out of here...

There is a lot of uncertainty.
However the Edison report has some interesting comment on 7Z

"Because electrical submersible pumps (ESPs) have been installed in both wells, it would be possible to continue to produce from 205/21a-7z once these have been commissioned (currently scheduled for H220), however any decision on this will be dependent on the ongoing data gathering and technical review. "

"Hurricane Energy| 16 June 20204could be sealed off. We note that the toe of the well sits c 79m deeper than the heel, so that this option would be less attractive in the event of a shallower OWC model. We estimate that such a recompletion could be carried out for c $35m. A side-track or a new well would each have the benefit of moving the producing reservoir interval further away from the 205/21a-6 well than at present and thereby minimising or removing the interference between the two wells, while allowing for a shallower horizontal section if required. If a new well is drilled, it would effectively remove the need for the potential Lancaster-8 well which we previously estimated to come onstream in Q122"

'Given the difficult macroeconomic backdrop and the need to strengthen the Company's balance sheet, the Board is keenly focused on the need to increase production, whilst also keeping capital expenditure focused and to a minimum.'

True, however similiar statement could be made about BP or any oil company in current environment.

Would also like to post my thanks.

FWIW I am also disappointed to see Trice completely depart the company :-(
Though whatever I think of the politics it doesn't make sense to suddenly sell out now at a complete loss.
If production remains steady at 12K and price of oil bounces back then this will easily return to 20-30p.

Disappointed to see Dr Trice go. Been invested since 2014 and he was one of the principal reasons.

I remain invested for now. Mainly because I am currently underwater and see possible ~50% future upside to share price as oil price recovers.

I do have one question for the forum : Has Trice resigned because he doesn't want to see the company sold for 20/30p ?
Only time will tell....

adoubleuk : sorry to see you (and Dr Trice go).
what ever you think of the decision it doesn't feel like the right time to sell.
on the other hand if this gets back to 20p/30p I am out of here.

sustained production at 12Kbopd and oil price should do the trick...

fully agree - I am sad Dr Trice has gone. his technical expertise is one reason why I invested.
however the share price has been disappointing to say the least.
i dont think all is lost here : however I do now expect a low take over bid (20-30p) in next few months.

As I see it there has been obvious disagreement about HUR should go next :

option 1) drill a new well on Lancaster (Dr Trice)
option 2) conserve cash and look to moneteize / sell the company (the board)

Looks like option 2 has won.
Share holders should sit tight and strap in.

^ re : share price. Imagine 2 years ago someone told you EPS had produced at 12k bopd for 12 months. Would you believe share price would be at historic lows?

confirmed 12-15K production and steady oil price should see this back at 20p.

^ right now I think most would take an offer that took them close to break-even ?
anything north of 25p and I would be done given the roller-coaster ride this has been.