Member Info for haggis_trap

Every Edison report so far has been wrong.

Chill and wait for the technical update when (I am told) all will become clear. My guess is shallower OWC but also rabbit out the hat ;-)

Even with shallower owc this should be priced at 20p+.

Patience... No news is good news ;-)

Anything less than 20p in next few weeks will be daylight robbery. The new board have moral duty to explain / fix the current well documented issues before even thinking about selling the company.

Acting CEO notable by her silence. Not a single interview...

Based on publically available information something doesn't add up : the new CEO been notable by her absence as the share price is trashed. Either Lancaster is a lemon. Or something else is afoot...

^ fully agree. hostile take over is a risk.
however what minimum price will be acceptable to Kerogen (and others) ?

^ exactly. Kerogen didn't stay invested this long to dump the company for 7p a share. Only once we have technical report / new CPR will it be possible to discuss take over value.

Patience required

@slift : you have no idea what my average is.
however that is entirely unrelated to what the true value of the company might be.

@JAdam : correct.

The new board have done a great job at creating significant uncertainty with recent RNS releases.
They now must answer the questions they have asked in Septembers technical review. I am happy to wait and see what that brings.

After that information is released I fully expect the new CEO to start engaging with the market and investors.
Right now she is in hiding without even having the courtesy to introduce herself.

@slift

> I don't think you understand the risks.

Been invested here since way back in 2014.
Know more about this company than you might imagine ;-)

@slift : you have clearly bought in for 5/6p and are hoping for a quick pump and dump profit.
that might keep you happy - happy it ignores what the true value of the company might actually be.
the board have moral / legal duty to act in shareholders best interest.

A take over at 7p with be based on cash on bank alone and assumes Lancaster about to run dry. I don't believe that is the case and firmly expect new board to set sights higher.

The value here depends entirely on the technical report and 2021 cpr. Even with a shallower OWC there are most likely reserves & cash in bank to justify 20p share price. True value of HUR is either 0p or much more.

A quick 'smash and grab' sell out at 8p might delight recent investors, however it would be an absolute crime against longer term holders. If it happens then integrity, and motivation, of new board will come under the spot light. Classic corrupt AIM stich up - as it's unlikely true value is somewhere in middle.

Either the water is manageable, or its not... If water can be dealt with (which I believe likely) then company clearly has considerable value.

@Stu255 : takeover was always the end game for HUR.
Given the traumatic last 6 months I think many might reluctantly accept 20p.

However for that to happen the new-board really need to confidence back and the share price back trading at 10p+ before even thinking about entering negotiations. Anything else will sell long term holders down the river.

Cynics might suggest that new board see merit/advantage in declaring a shallow OWC. Might convince OGA they don't need to drill Lancaster commitment well (freeing up cash for 7z sidetrack or 8 well instead?)

Insightful post. Even with higher OWC I remain hopefull HUR is worth "something" (i.e way more than 5p!).

I fully expect Septembers technical review to have some bad news (shallow OWC) but also remedial action (8 well or 7z sidetrack).

Give it 6-12 months and this should be back at 20p....

>Perhaps if HUR can find a way to disappear the primary question that is answered by the commitment well, then the OGA could be much more receptive about reducing the drilling commitments?

I think that is probably close to the truth. It appears to me Hurricane can afford to drill one well next year? A 7z sidetrack / 8-well on Lancaster way more useful than a delineation well.....

^ I am no expert : but the water contact may not be uniform. Potentially 7z well hit unlucky pocket (jelly fish model)

Fwiw : my feeling is the September technical review will contain some bad news (higher owc) but also proposed remedial action (7z sidetracked or 8-well).

Today's RNS almost stinks of new management team trashing expectations (and share price with it). Get all bad news out the way then they can pull rabbit out hat next month.

@sailplane. Good reminder. Something doesn't add up... Potentially OWC not uniform across the field? Today's negative RNS was odd, not least the fact that it didn't really contain new information.