Member Info for haggis_trap

Wow, Chryasor snap up Premier Oil in reverse take over to create biggest oil company on London stock exchange. Not relevant for here : but shows that M&A deals now getting done.

Surely taken over by Xmas? Someone could pay 5p per share and cover it with £100 million cash currently in bank. Basically getting assets from free in return for taking on bond liability.

10p would seem like reasonable opening bid for proposed takeover...

Shale has become un-financiable. The entire industry was basically developed using debt which couldn't be repaid. Since 2015 over 200 Amercian shale producers have gone bankrupt owing an eye watering 130 billion. However America turned a blind eye as it allowed them to increase domestic production which was politically advantageous. If you think about it it was utterly bonkers to allow debt to be used to produce oil from a higher cost source (fracking / shale) rather than exploit conventional reserves elsewhere in world. Chesapeake Energy going under in June was final conformation that the fracking industry wont be making a come back - who in their right mind will lend them money?

Why is this important? Well once global economy finally recovers from covid I believe we will get another cycle of $100 oil. The oil previously produced from US fracking will need to be replaced. In addition no one is currently exploring for conventional reserves given the low oil prices. All of this *could* be perfect storm for LBE is they manage to acquire assets near bottom of market (like it or not global economy remains dependent on oil despite it becoming unfashionable).

yup : share price irrelevant here. the main thing is that you are still holding once a deal is done.
though I have to agree that current market is ideal for those looking to buy assets.
in addition to that I fully expect another oil-cycle ($100 / barrel) in 3-5 years time.
shale has become un-financiable.
therefore when global economy finally recovers from covid oil will be very much in demand once again.

good luck all.

Todays movement is just the market makers playing games
92p to sell but 97p to buy. Spread is huge (5%)
Ignore share price and sit on your hands until deal is done and company has fundamentals

News leak? This is flying

Time will tell what HUR is worth.
However : the current market cap is 60 million with 100 million cash in bank.
So any takeover at 5p would basically get the assets for "free" in return for accepting bond liability (which is currently trading at 50% anyway!).

It seems reasonable anyone takeover would need to start at ~10p.
HUR is worth something to someone...

- Lancaster, with possibility of production enhancements. Aoka Mizu producing.
- Lincoln tie back
- Halifax
- Debt to be offset against tax by purchaser
- £100 million in cash

Would only be RTO if company goes back to market to raise further cash to fund purchase. They could also purchase smaller field using mixture of debt and existing capital (£8 million)

Would only be RTO is company goes back to market to raise further cash to fund purchase. They could also purchase smaller field using mixture of debt and existing capital (£8 million)

^ agree : though i believe simply purchasing an asset not enough.
to raise equity the board need to convince market they can add value.
for example :

- multiple assets next to each other
- drilling / production enhancements to extend field life
- push decommissioning costs into the future
- oil price goes up over next 3-5 years (as I believe it will).

remember someone is selling these producing assets for a reason. the question is how LBE make it work for them. as it stands the major advantage of LBE is they have no-debt. in current low price environment purchasing oil fields provides better value / less risk than exploration ;-)

my maths is a little simpler.
current market cap of company is £10 million.
the goal is to become a midsize north sea producer (say market cap £200 million / 30bopd) within 3-5 years.
assuming board achieve that aim then potential upside is huge. what they need to do though is get the first purchase right so that the production revenue can be used against future deals.

Exactly : someone wants to buy HUR - but at their price (10p)

EPS funding was at 10p.
Crystal Amber already in profit from trading.
Kerogens average circa 14p.

If Kerogen can buy company for under 10p they might be delighted? The question is if there are enough PIs who bought under 5p that might vote for it?

Interesting RNS and a big clue about future plans ;-)
New business development manager joins company and his bonus based on performance post-RTO.
Interesting that options will scale as % of issued share capital in company.

My guess : CA know Kerogen are getting ready for hostile takeover ...

Kerogen triggering some kind of hostile take over is what is going to move share price here.....

If true it stinks. Kerogen commissioned the technical report which trashed share price!

Now they are buying company for 3p....

Can someone explain how Kerogen would take company private? Presumably they need 50% of shares? So will buy as many as they can at 3p then make offer for the rest?

Could go either way. Kerogen could be chucking in towel and selling for 3p. Or a take over is imminent?

Kerogen have resigned so they can buy or sell. The question is which!

^ well : that depends if Kerogen buying or selling?
We simply don't know if this is good or bad news.

Given role Kerogen played in funding EPS their departure is significant. Meanwhile Crystal Amber are buying, while simultaneously doubting the technical review just published by new board...

Anyone else smell a rat?