Member Info for haggis_trap

Aye - had one of those emails too :-)
To be fair - last months presentation contained plenty information.
I am sure this will eventually come good...

at the end of the day it takes two to do a deal... so the board leaking information is counter productive to the end goal and can only rock the boat. I always saw this as longer term play. patience will be rewarded. short-term share price is irrelevant - there is like 1 trade a day here. the handful of PIs are basically riding on the coat tails of the institutions who put in the seed money.

I think they have 8-10 million in bank. at cash burn of 100K per month there is no need to panic.

500k tests per week. Country needs these urgently! Capacity not increased to sit unused

I am sure this will come good. Experienced board have unfinished business and point to prove after Faroe were taken over. They want back in game!

Craig David has spoken....
Keep your fingers crossed it is for real this time!

p.s BP is a solid recovery play at £2 a share. However would need to be patient as who knows when global economy will start to bounce back.

> Haggis - I think it’s very difficult to view anything as a 3-5 year investment to be honest.

As I see it the 2x reasons to invest are :
1) Experienced board with contacts in North Sea (norway and UK) and ability to raise finance
2) Longer-term oil price recovery as world economy recovers from covid

Both of these will take time. However assumuning board are successful in turning current £10 million seed investment into mid-cap oil company (~£200 million) then investors will be well-rewarded. One advantage LBE have over other oil companies is they are starting from position of zero-debt. Right now it makes more economic sense to acquire producing assets than take risk of exploration via drilling.

> Just look at BP .... has lost some £60billion in value inside a year.

Oddly the reasons for BP decline are what make this a good investment. Oil industry has always been cyclical. Right now we are at bottom of a dip (.... which should make it a good time to purchase oil fields?). Oil is currently out of fashion, but world economy remains addicted to it.

As an aside - best to ignore share price until deal is done and company has real fundamentals. The market cap here is small (£10 mil) and with literally 1 or 2 trades a day only a tiny % of company being traded. The wide spread between bid and ask make it impossible to trade.

Best to view this as 3-5 year investment based on:
- management team having experience to do deal(s)
- price of oil rebounding post covid

Patience... Deal will drop when you least expect it!
Looks like M&A deals finally getting done in North Sea. Should be buyers market - but raising finance not trivial in current climate. The key is to find something where value can be added...I remain hopeful even though it's taking longer than hoped

The best reply I got was :
"..... *at time* of technical review Q&A there were no plans for dilution".
That statement maybe have been true in August ;-) My experience is that investor relations very good at re-badging news that is already in public domain while pretending to be sympathetic and giving little away.

I had previous fall out with them in August after they refused to give me yes / no answer about production restarting.

Well, I knew the risks with EPS so only have myself to blame. Even now i think HUR has a future. The kitchen sinking was deliberately worst-case. However you need to trust new board not to dilute existing share holders to remain invested....

Let me start by saying i believe HUR has a future. 14bopd, £100 mil in bank and Lincoln tie back is worth something to someone.... The obvious elephant in the room is how the remedial works will be funded. Estimated cost of new wells is higher than market cap of the company (£50 million). As I see it the risk / reward ratio only makes sense once funding in place.

The new board dropped ball with the infamous September kitchen sinking. Share price has dropped 10p to 2p on their watch : which makes equity harder to raise. Plan for remedial works should have been announced alongside the technical review. Fwiw : I remain sceptical of the technical review (... someone wants HUR cheap?)

With this in mind would urge those who remain invested to ask investor relations how future work might be funded. Ask them to look you and eye and promise you wont be diluted. I did just that : wasn't satisifed with answer and sold out at absolutely huge loss (having held since 2014). Seems to me current focus is all about ensuring bonds are repaid rather than protecting what little is left of share holder value.

Good luck to all remain in. If anyone deserves a little good news it is long suffering holders of HUR

New board clearly been doing some spring cleaning....
Clearly out all links with the old HUR

My feeling : from current kitchen sinked position there is lots of potential upside. The basic problem is funding future work given requirement to pay bonds in 2022....

I think Daveri means well....
However I hope he is not offended that Craig David has become a running joke here!

Lancaster slap bang next to premier oils Solan platform ...
Go figure!

> Any potential bid here will likely be after the US elections, and now even possibly early next year.

Company has promised update on remedial work by xmas.
However this needs to be funded.

As i see it take-over before December likely.
The alternative is to raise equity.

Decommissioning bond refinanced to clear decks for take over?

Joining the dots I expect takeover before xmas

RTO price entierly a function of future deal and the equity they can raise to fund it.

Current market cap of company is £10 million. However deal could be up to £200 million. Therefore current share price / market cap irrelevant to future share price.

Premier Oil Solan platform slap bang next to Lancaster. Chryasor could snap HUR up for @10p a share : would be small change for them.... Indeed HURs cash in bank worth 5p a share!