Member Info for Guitarsolo

Eccles, I believe you're an (ex?) accountant and probably not a doctor. It is very possible to suffer a whiplash injury and it can be severe (caused by hyperextension/ compression of the vertebrae). Remember your spinal cord is in there! It's effects should be relatively temporary (like a sprain) but can result in loss of mobility and pain. If someone else's negligence causes that then there is a valid claim for compensation. The fact you have been in one rear-end shunt without suffering injury doesn't disprove that!
The issue is that over a 25-odd year period, it has become commonplace for every not-at-fault vehicle occupant to claim some sort of whiplash injury. Then the less-than-scrupulous medics you refer to haven't helped because whiplash is a spectrum of severity and therefore it is impossible to say there is (or was) no injury whatsoever. Then the less-than-scrupulous lawyers (they're not lawyers) you mention have built cases on the fact that if there was some degree of suffering which may or may not be demonstrable, there should be some compensation. Then one person gets it and tells their friends and blah blah blah we end up with insurance premiums where they are.
This is not a new thing (but it is a thing) and it is welcome that finally there are efforts being made to try and reduce the incidence and costs which we otherwise all pay for (you're right there!).
Guitarsolo

Dash cam evidence can help show if an accident was staged, or someone else's fault. They can also show the speed of the impact which has become more difficult to discern as bodywork (bumpers) are improved.
Some 23 years ago I was working for one of the big insurers and helped set up its anti-fraud unit. Even then the research showed that many whiplash claims were from staged accidents (a village near Manchester had nearly 400 in one year!). So it has been a drain on car insurance for a generation or more. About time it was properly tackled.

Thanks Rivaldo, looks like another typical Renew acquisition.
I couldn't see their profitability on documents at Companies House but would put my trust in RNWH that it's around the usual ballpark. All gently lifting the expected EPS.
GS

I see some calls for special dividends etc as part of the "substantial return". This may be part of Amanda Blanc's plans but personally I would prefer excess capital is used to improve the balance sheet (pay off debt) ahead of potentially rising interest rates. That would also put Aviva in a better position to make acquisitions (using debt if needs be) if/when the opportunity arises.
Insurance is undergoing a digital transformation (AI etc) and it is important to be at the front of this curve - so investment in that is important.
Without doubt we will see some share buybacks - if for no other reason that it flatters executives with "better" EPS figures to claim are their doing.
But, in my opinion, all the work needs to focus on the long-term and sustained rebuilding of the dividend. It was cut by circa 30% last year (aka re-basing!) to around 21p or so. The focus should be to take it back towards 30p again over a 4-5 year period but for it to still be sustainable once it is there.
Just my thoughts.
Guitarsolo

All at Sea, I believe Aviva sees its skill to be operating in markets it dominates (is that a skill?). To that end, it is a dominant player in the UK and Ireland, and is becoming so in Canada. That's across multiple lines of business. It's a model that relies on its capital relative to the size of the market. Much like you can't ignore Tesco's in the groceries market, you can't ignore Aviva in the general insurance, pensions, investments management etc.
Using one's bulk to dominate a market is fairly easy once you're that big, the skill is to maximise the profits.
The flip side is Aviva is withdrawing from its peripheral markets (Italy, Turkey, Poland, Singapore etc). Why? Probably because to maintain such a position there, or to grow it, disproportionately sucks up resources (capital and people). If it pays off, you're quids in. If not, you've chucked a load of time and money at something and not really got anywhere. Remember Tesco's efforts to crack the US market with Fresh N Easy....that cost it $2bn in the end to exit.
Aviva has set out it's plan and I would say it is likely to succeed. The measure of that success though may be underwhelming as it is likely to be a steady as she goes type thing rather than shooting the lights out!
Guitarsolo

Hello Devon,
Many thanks for your note, albeit to relay sad news. Indeed I do remember Soi and would often take note of his posts. In fact, somewhere on my laptop I have a list of about 20 of Soi's recommendations for high yielders! It is probably a bit out of date now but I took some comfort from the fact that I hold/held a decent share of the companies he recommended - it made me feel I was doing something right! He was always willing to share info and opinions and that was appreciated. I'm sorry to hear of his passing.
I hope you're well down there?! It's been a tough old time trying to find income that isn't associated with capital loss. Here's hoping for "value" to have its time in the sun!
Kind regards
Guitarsolo

You're right Fever, it is a crazy thought......and will not happen!
Tesla manufactures it's cars mostly in the US and now also in China (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_factories ). It hasn't "manufactured" cars in the UK since 2012 (when it was not what you currently think of as Tesla). No cars are even yet manufactured in Europe. What it will build in Germany and perhaps the UK (that's the media speculation) is a gigafactory.
But still, if Tesla continues to make high-performing cars it will need some high-performing brakes to stop them! So you never know....but I would be more interested in SCE supplying Porsche, BMW etc.
Guitarsolo - slowly adding a few shares here or there

Bubbles etc.
I think it is necessary to set the record straight. God knows we live in a world of disinformation where rumour and untruths fester into facts in no time.
You say the government didn't instruct financials to cease paying dividends. No, they didn't but the FCA did tell some financials to cease dividends;
Banks were told they could not pay dividends. Insurers were not but were advised by the FCA that they should be very "prudent". Why? There was a feeling in the city that this could be a financial Armageddon. I haven't seen fear like that since the financial crash.
So all banks stopped paying dividends and insurers were told to protect their balance sheets at all costs (so that they didn't need a bail out). Aviva and Direct Line stopped their declared dividends - an unprecedented move but I think reflected the gravity of the situation in March 2020. DL has since caught up with the missed payments. Aviva hasn't. LGEN kept its dividend throughout arguing that it's balance sheet was strong enough. They were right! Others, like Chesnara actually increased their dividends.
Aviva was super cautious in my view. Possibly because it was not in such a strong position as DL/LGEN etc (for different reasons). Aviva also changed CEO around the time and it is no surprise an incoming CEO uses the opportunity to rebase the dividend because it allows them to claim later that they continually increased it!
But remember this, although the dividend was not paid (which has caused pain) the money is still inside Aviva. The value is still there and it probably allows for a more generous policy down the line. That will suit some more than others.
Guitarsolo

People are here Rivaldo! I still don't know where you go trawling to find the latest details of a sewerage maintenance contract, or a lamppost upgrade contact, but it is most welcome.

RNWH is a perfect long-term investment and I've had some involvement since 91p days so am a happy bunny. As we all know, operating in the non-discretionary maintenance market is reliable if not exciting. The company's acquisition history is exemplary and debt is always managed and repaid quickly. I like that.

What now? I am sure they have their eyes on a few more bolt-ons. But there are only so many that are going to work before you run the risk of it becoming unwieldly.

But run the EPS up to 45p...50p....60p etc and on a multiple of x12 for a solid, debt free company you can see where the share price should go.

I would like to know what the long term plans are for the dividend. It is currently forecast to be around 13-14pps but increasing slower that EPS should be rising. Is the extra cash to be used for acquisitions? Perhaps. A war chest? Who knows? Special dividend? No hint at that. But you ask how could RNWH garner more attention....would a stated progressive dividend policy help? They have plenty of headroom to play with.

Guitarsolo

I would agree OMM, it makes sense to pay whatever dividend there is as a scrip this year and, in my opinion, until the LTV is below 40% (I would even say 35%). This maintains the REIT status, shareholders get "something", and NRR keeps cash to allow it to control the LTV and stay clear of any banking issues.
I am sure we would all prefer cash but not at the cost of hampering the business when they've been through so much in the last 12 months.
The downside (that I can see) is that it would also suppress the "full" dividend that NRR might be able to return to in the long term (3 year timeframe). It was 21.6p pre-Covid but I think anything over 15p for FY 2022 is wishful thinking. I'd take double digits!
Guitarsolo

DLNY, well that's my point really. SAV are engaging with the locals, and they need to. We shouldn't be dismissive of them or their concerns.

At the risk of sticking my head above the parapet, I think a dismissive attitude towards the people who live in the vicinity of the mine is deeply unhelpful. You might say it is NIMBY, but it is not in YOUR back yard is it? I speak as a resident of Devon where a large aggregate business is trying to sneak past planning laws (by paying a farmer to start walking his herd across a highway) in order to start digging that up. Residents have genuine concerns and they should all be listened to. If you want to dismiss that as ESG-madness, do so at your peril. If something is ever built near you, all your rights of objection will be morally forfeited!
I welcome SAV trying to build the top of the line ESG model mine. I also welcome them doing everything they can to assuage local doubters, make them see and share in the benefits, and build a mine everyone can be proud of. Credit to DA, he seems to be trying.
Dismissing local sheep farmers for wanting to protect their little part of the world, is likely to only land the problem in the laps of a crusader with far more skill to cause problems to the mine. Better to engage with them in my view.
Guitarsolo

Starrfox, I agree that the funds had to come from somewhere. My gripe is that they never offer any of the placings to private retail investors. I know that is a more expensive way of raising money but it is fairer and I reckon a good % of existing shareholders (including me) would have taken up shares in a 4p placing.

David Archer says "I would like to thank both our existing and new shareholders for their participation in the Placing.” That should read "SOME of our existing shareholders".

I also note that some of the board were able to participate: "Matthew King, the Company's Chairman and Michael McGarty, the Company's CFO, have subscribed for an aggregate of 562,500 Subscription Shares at the Placing Price pursuant to the Subscription”

I am not green and know that a private retail investor in an AIM company is going to be trodden all over in this way and, if you don't like it, don't invest here. But there has not been even a glimmer of acknowledgement from DA to the shareholders who were still backing him when the share price was below 1p. That's poor in my book.

Guitarsolo - expect some angry riffs

15th April: "The Board of Directors of Princess Private Equity Holding Limited ("Princess" or "the Company") today declares a first interim dividend of EUR 0.335 per share for FY 2021, in-line with previous guidance to distribute 5% of opening net asset value for each financial year, via semi-annual payments."

So near as damnit as predicted. A solid increase (circa 10%) on the full year before (had it been paid as a full dividend). Share price reacting very nicely. Wish I had more!

Guitarsolo - now let's hope the £ doesn't appreciate to wipe that out!

So, that drop a few weeks back to sub 50p and below the NAV was only temporary. NCYF has returned to its long-run circa 4-6% premium to the NAV (which is a good sign in my view and a nod to Franco's management here). I hope people were able to take advantage of the cheaper shares even if it means someone was probably being forced to offload in a hurry. I added a few to average down a penny and just sit back to take the dividends inside ISAs.

Hi Whitelye,
I've always found CSN very hard to read, mainly because in the murky world of actuary rates, investment returns, life expectancies, reserve releases blah blah blah it's hard to follow what's going on (and stay awake!). Embedded value gives you a very rough idea of someone's break-up value for the portfolios but until you tried to sell anything, no one really knows!
So I track the dividend (usually increasing around 3% pa.) and how the market reacts (presumably analysts who DO understand this!). In this instance, both of those metrics have proven reasonable.
Guitarsolo

Freedom, this was a reply to the same problem I gave to an Aviva investor that I think helped:

"Drunken, it's how you have elected to receive your dividends on HL. You will have a "capital account" and an "income account" and I would imagine you've chosen the option for dividends to be paid into the latter. If you go into this tab on your account you'll probably see a message under the income balance that says:

"You have asked for income you receive to be held on account. Therefore in the first ten working days of each month we will transfer any income you have received to your capital account and hold it there for you pending your instructions."

You can change this if you want to pay the money directly into your capital account where it can immediately be withdrawn or invested. Alternatively, click on the "transfer your income balance to your capital account" link. This allows you to manually move it.

Hope this helps and apologies to non-HL users for the useless info!

Guitarsolo - strumming"

Drunken, it's how you have elected to receive your dividends on HL. You will have a "capital account" and an "income account" and I would imagine you've chosen the option for dividends to be paid into the latter. If you go into this tab on your account you'll probably see a message under the income balance that says:

"You have asked for income you receive to be held on account. Therefore in the first ten working days of each month we will transfer any income you have received to your capital account and hold it there for you pending your instructions."

You can change this if you want to pay the money directly into your capital account where it can immediately be withdrawn or invested. Alternatively, click on the "transfer your income balance to your capital account" link. This allows you to manually move it.

Hope this helps and apologies to non-HL users for the useless info!

Guitarsolo - strumming

I like the way RNWH does acquisitions. Always affordable and paid for with cash/short-term debt. And they look to pay that debt off quickly and get the balance sheet ready for the next bolt-on. Always a good specialist in a complimentary field, good reputations.
If it it accretive to c.£5.5m that's about 7pps annually. We'll have to see how much debt was taken on for the acquisition to estimate how long it will take to pay off.
Guitarsolo - a happy holder

Wilks, I do hope so! I've been in ARBB since 2017 I think it was with a small holding at 1470p, so I've got a way to go yet! There's been a few divis along the way.
My reading of ARBB though is that it has huge potential. It's solid with its deposits easily exceeding its loans, the defaults are relatively well managed (incl. Boris Becker!), and they seem to have a team of high-quality bankers! My concern is whether the profits from using our capital will be substantially returned to shareholders or will be siphoned off by the workforce! There has to be a balance.
I obviously invested well before Covid took its toll and will probably hang around to give them time to get themselves sorted. It is a nice bijou bank that might hit a sweet spot in a few years' time. It's never going to be a spectacular investment for me with a high entry point but I can live in hope.
Guitarsolo