Member Info for Guitarsolo

A few musings (acknowledging there are more experienced mining investors here!):

(i) The decision by the Portuguese government to share its royalties (50/50?) between central government and the municipalities is a helpful step. It puts the municipalities right in the game and not just potential beneficiaries if central government shares its spoils. This significantly increases the municipalities’ direct benefits in mining lithium and helps them “sell” the plan to their inhabitants (most of whom will not be affected). More residents will see money flowing into their region and the objection to the mining (I hope) will reduce to a hardcore who would not accept it under any circumstances. I believe Sr. Matos de Fernandez knew this and it is a calculated move, possibly to dent the recent litigation by the parish.
(ii) As we know, new tenaments are coming up for auction in approx. 60 days (please correct me if I am wrong). The Ministry will know that these will achieve higher bids if a previous bid is properly progressing (i.e. SAV’s plan for MdB). SAV have done everything it would seem humanly possible to make it a strong ESG-planned mine. Others have been rejected. If potential bidders for licenses think that MdB can’t get through EIA approval, why would you bother with any serious bid for other tenaments?
(iii) GALP’s refining plan is crucial. We know the EU want their own source of Li, and there are few options as advanced as MdB. The political pressure to get this moving, within the next 60 days (?) must be huge. The geopolitical picture with China being a less-than-trustworthy partner feeds this narrative.
(iv) Lastly, the ever-present argument of an alternative to Li-ion batteries. Forget it, at least for 20 years. The process to develop and obtain safety approval for vehicles is third only in complexity to airplanes and nuclear power plants! Once an OEM goes down a route, they really really don’t want to change. Once every major OEM on the planet has gone down the Li-ion battery route (and they have) there is zero chance that such batteries will not be the sole/vast majority use for at least a couple of decades. If (big if) there are alternative battery types, they will find themselves in other uses, not vehicles.

All IMHO!

Been sat in SAV for years and waiting, waiting for the investment to come good. But never been more optimistic than right now.

Good luck all!

Guitarsolo – gently strumming

SW, many thanks for your effort to contact their Investor Relations and taking the time to share a summary of their reply.

It helps clarify a few issues (for me). The control over the music rests with the recording company and artist. However, there is obviously some degree of contractual protection that the artist can't act in a way that damages the "product". Fine, I'm happy with that but it's not the same as being in complete control. Being nosey, I'd love to know what else is safeguarded in the contract to provide redress if it came out! But it slightly reduces the value because SONG could be a hostage to fortune in certain, unpredictable, circumstances. Diversification is probably the answer.

I am still interested in SONG if only because with the changes my working life has experienced in the last 2 years I personally "use" streaming music way more than I ever thought I would! And I am not alone!

Guitarsolo

Thanks AI! Much appreciated.

I concur Bluemango, 76.3c it should be.
Sterling has strengthened a wee bit over the last 12 months and at say 1.20 that'll be 63.6p for those of us in the UK. Perhaps the last couple of months' small NAV decreases and the GBP/EUR rate has taken a bit of shine off, but you can't knock 14% increases over a large portfolio.
Attention will turn to how they can do during 2022. More of the same please!
Guitarsolo

Hi Rivaldo, thanks for sharing Zeus' analysis. I think it is quite hard to estimate anything based on income metrics this far out from serious levels of production. But the 25-30% net margin estimate, if at all accurate, would be good news.
Likewise, a valuation isn't necessarily taking into account the IP of the product, the difficulty to reverse-engineer, the "stickability" of the contracts (because OEMs really don't want to change a safety-critical part of the car once all safety tests are completed), the value of furnaces once up and running, the disruption to a monopolistic market etc.
It's nice to see a bounce in the last few days but this is still a strong buy at these prices if you're on a 5-10 year investment horizon (all IMHO!). I intend to quietly accumulate with spare cash.
Guitarsolo

Well, as I say, I can still stream both of them on Spotify so it might be a moot point. Perhaps the contract gives SONG the control but to appease artists they won't make a public point about that and will allow NY et al a moment in the sun! SONG may prefer not to be too loud about that in public in case it deters future artist catalogue sales.
Let's see if they get back to SWS' query.

Laughton: "" but they can't take the money for their music rights and then say to the new owner you can't play my music there" - except that if that's part of the deal then yes, they can."

OK, put it another way, that's a terrible deal to have agreed and handed over many millions of $$$!

If a Neil Young objects to a podcast on Spotify, he would find something on Apple Music, Amazon Music, radio stations etc. It would severely limit income generation from the catalogue one would think.
It's a noble objective to be artist-friendly in terms of (e.g.) advertising Macdonalds or something. But pulling music from a platform like Spotify because NY objects to a podcast has got to be bad news for this as an investment. No?

Thank you SWS,
I note that Joni Mitchell is now following suit. A BBC news article says "Spotify agreed to remove his songs from the platform, and said it hoped he decides to return to the platform soon" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60177933) but I can still stream both of them.....so I am not sure what is going on!
But keeping this about the investment side of the business, I can understand an artist wanting to prevent their music being used post-sale for specific advertising they don't agree with (e.g. gambling, certain lifestyle, politics (e.g. Trump!)) but saying it can't be aired on a streaming platform because of other content nothing to do with SONG as owner of the rights just seems bizarre. What next, songs can't be played on XYZ radio station because someone doesn't like one presenter?!
It's odd behaviour by Neil Young and Joni Mitchell but they can't take the money for their music rights and then say to the new owner you can't play my music there!
Will be interesting to see how SONG respond.
Guitarsolo

SW, have you had any replies to your query or dug up any more information yourself? I'm not a SONG holder (yet) but am intrigued by this as an asset class and income generator. The Neil Young situation raises serious questions about who retains the power to direct where the catalogue is used to generate income. I recall when SONG purchases NY's catalogue (well 50%) that Merck made a point of saying the NY retained what the latter would probably call "integrity" - citing that if NY didn't want his music used for (e.g.) Macdonald's adverts then it wouldn't be. But to take it off a platform as large as Spotify entirely? If that is also part of the artist's "integrity" then there are some serious questions about what a portfolio is worth, surely?
I'd be interested to hear what those who are more involved/ knowledgeable think.
GS.

Just checked and a small limit buy went through at 4.15pm yesterday at 42.98.....Yay!

Not got a big holding here (yet) as only building with spare cash. But pleased to see the update about the furnace and a small bounce in the price. But the bigger picture here is that they have a great product and a decent number of contracts. The "only" downside is the reliance of start of production dates/ ramp up of production with the OEMs. But to my mind that is a timing issue.

And I guess that is the rub of why the share price is down. There is a seller(s) out there that doesn't have the patience to let this play out. No problem, I do! I'll keep building a position until such time as I think the share price reflects the future value of the company. At present, it's still below where is was before the new American OEM and the recent £45m contract! Nuts!

Guitarsolo - gently strumming with a sly grin on my face!

Thanks Rivaldo for this, and other, news about contract wins! It is much appreciated even if I don't say it every time.
I don't know where you find this stuff but thanks for sharing.
Everything looks pretty rosy for RNWH.
Guitarsolo

Looks to me like there is still a seller trying to offload quite a few shares. I don't have access to L2 so can't tell.

It doesn't worry me and in fact I've continued to build a holding (gone from small to small/medium-ish!). I'm taking a very long term view and find it interesting that the share price is lower than before the announcement of the American OEM (new customer) and the recent £45m contract (with existing OEM). Granted the time to booking the actual sales might be delayed, but they should still be there.

Guitarsolo

It's impossible for him to explain why it was right for Han**** or others to resign and for him not to. He might try and change the rules (i.e. do an Owen Paterson) but we know that ended badly. But once the public have seen him caught lying (and it's not the first time!) then the penny starts to drop about when he might have been lying about other things too. The Conservatives are in a real bind; ditch him to have a reasonable shot of holding on at the next election, or back him and put the future of the entire party in the hands of someone who even his strongest supporter must think is a gamble. Move too soon, the incomer has too long to govern without an election mandate. Move too late and too much damage is done. It's a real bind.

Cookoo, there's no witch hunt! But Johnson brings this all upon himself because he lies so readily. It just gives people ample opportunity, should they so wish, to catch him out - hence today as another example. To be fair there were many many people who warned the Conservatives against choosing someone like Boris as leader. But they did so anyway and must now take what goes with that (i.e. a media circus). I think it will all end badly for the Conservatives personally, possibly even as early as the next election. But we shall have to wait and see on that front. But if you didn't want the circus, you shouldn't have elected Boris (same thing with Trump really - what did they expect!).

Actually Cookoo, Verney's point is valid (at least in my opinion). Individually it would be relatively rare if we've been personally affected if a few dozen No.10 workers gathered in the garden after work. But it's the contempt that it demonstrates to us that matters. And that contempt flows through multiple channels and not just lockdown breaking garden parties. Remember, for all that he did wrong, Al Capone was taken down for tax evasion!

Hi Redtom, so the 30 November 2021 NAV came in at 118.85p - a bit above where you thought it might but still down on the October NAV of 126p. It seems that the fluctuations around various equity holdings, including Bakkt and VIH (which is the driver for the November change), are causing the NAV to bounce around a bit. I suppose this is largely irrelevant if there is a lock-in period as there is with Bakkt.
I did see the underlying earnings for November were 0.83% which is still OK. If they can make 10% a year they can afford the 8pps dividend.
I'd be interested to see some commentary from the company about how they see the relatively high inflation environment in the US affecting them. Will the inflation make the end-borrower's debt more affordable? Will higher inflation lead to higher coupon rates? Is there any change to delinquency rates or expected delinquency rates?
Guitarsolo

"EVs are like the Sony betamax"

That's going to be up there with the guy who said Google is a bubble.

So this vindicates previous threads that the delay to accruing income in the present year is largely irrelevant as this is all really about 2023/24 onwards. More carry-over contracts means that OEM must be impressed enough with SCE's product(s) to move them to tier 1 and put them all around the car on standard and specialist models. I'm confident that current OEMs under contract will continue to use SCE's discs and will put them on more and more models. The likelihood of other OEMs joining the party gets stronger and stronger for all the reasons we know.
If SCE can monetize this the prospects are fantastic on a 5-10 year time scale.
The share price tends to edge lower after good-news updates so I will continue to add as finances allow.

I suspect the customary shutdown in Catholic countries from 24 Dec - 6 January effectively means there's just a couple of days for it to happen in 2021. After that, we're practically on top of the election so it wouldn't be surprising to see the approval delayed until the end of January. Then, fingers crossed, there will be approval and some RNSs that will really grab attention.

I was happy to be able to add a few at sub-50p. Still a relatively small holding but growing so I'd be happy if it stays depressed for a while longer!
I'd agree with Rivaldo though, the RNS really just confirms that it is a delay rather than anything else and probably not unexpected (by FTM!) given the complexity of setting up the furnaces and the volatility of OEMs' SOPs. The former point is actually an advantage as it confirms the difficulty for anyone trying to copy SCE.
The delay doesn't really worry me as the real fun here won't start for at least another year and I view this as a 10-year investment (with SCE having perhaps 20%+ of the market and their discs fitted to multiple production models who are very unlikely to change supplier unless SCE really screw up).
The FinnCap valuation of 69p is probably fair at the moment, but will be increased significantly once they move into the 2022/23 sales levels, and that's without other contracts.
So I am happy to sit tight and add a few here and there with loose change.
Guitarsolo