Member Info for Guitarsolo

latpulldown, I appreciate you're trying to be upbeat but it's coming across like you're a government spokesperson! From the figures you quote for yesterday, I would note that today:

Number of infections: UP
Number of hospital admissions: UP
Number of deaths: UP

This is still going to be a long haul for CARD (and all non-essential retailers) to reopen. They will eventually but the absolute imperative is to get everyone vaccinated and infection rates right down.

You need a pair of very rosy-tinted glasses to think the handling of this pandemic hasn't been disastrous. No one can be happy about that no matter what your politics.

Guitarsolo

I think one of my obsessions has come to an end; the tracking of VSL share repurchases.

Having got so close to a cool 100 million shares repurchased (why leave it at 99,968,000?) I would say the share price rally has put pay to the logic of rebuying any more shares. Better to put available funds to use with balance sheet loans - the company's actual business!

Still, 100m shares out of the original 382m represents a share repurchase of 26.16% of the stock. I don't have a figure for the blended average but I would reckon it is well over 15% discount to the NAV and thereby helps to improve the NAV. I reckon in time this will look like a very astute share buyback programme. Large enough to have a real affect. Big discount means it's got real value. All timed very well to take advantage of an undervalued share (although there did miss the chance to buy back shed loads when it was down in the 40ps - that would have been a masterstroke!).

So what happens now? Well, I imagine it's business as usual. Slightly lower income from reduced capital employed, but fewer shares to divide it between so higher EPS. I'm not hopeful of any increase to the dividend though :( They have made multiple statements that the 2ppq is what they continue to view as the target.

And the recent share price increase to mid-80s means that there isn't much point to buying any more shares......Oh well, I'll have to find a new obsession.

Guitarsolo

Deano, you need to have bought before the share goes ex-dividend to receive it.

I think the fact you can still buy this at under 5p is crazy. That's about the same price as 2017 when I first bought in (excluding rights issues I know) but since when the MdB proven reserves have multiplied and now there is a 50% take-off agreement with a billion-euro company.
Plus SAV's share of the heavy sands in Mozambique has increased and the process is inching forward.
The only thing that has "gone" since 2017 is Oman and that was probably not worth much to begin with.
We still need patience, but the future is looking better.
Guitarsolo

"Princess Private Equity Holding Limited's (Princess or the Company) net asset value increased by 3.1% to EUR 12.96 per share." (as at 30 November 2020)

"The Company also provided guidance for FY 2021 that it intends to pay a total dividend of 5% of opening net asset value via semi-annual payments."

So if we anticipate a modest uptick in NAV for December (and likely to be good rather than modest) and make NAV a nice round EUR 13 to be the opening NAV for 2021, then we can expect dividends of 65c for next year I reckon. Basically a 10% rise on the last few years (2020 being the exception where only 3/4 of the target was paid out - being 43.5c).

I can live with that.

Guitarsolo

Sometimes the guitar can be the support act, and at other times you get your moment of glory!

GS

Thanks Rivaldo, I don't know where you go trawling to find details of these contracts, but thank you! It's appreciated from a fellow shareholder.
Guitarsolo - gently strumming

Thanks Eccles, I'm aware it's a very big part of their business. An Maersk wouldn't be that big even at £1.1bn (compared to say Rolls Royce), but I thought it was noteworthy nonetheless! I'm sure this area is super-tightly regulated given the fallout were it to go t*ts-up. But we've had two events in the last 12 years that have nearly caused financial meltdown.
Anyway, here's hoping that LGEN can keep a steady ship for 2021 and beyond.
Guitarsolo - gently strumming to the end of the year

This popped up on an internal professional news feed. Not sure if it is new or has been mentioned before:

"Legal and General has announced it has agreed to a £1.1bn bulk annuity transaction with the trustee of the Maersk Retirement Benefit Scheme.

This deal will secure the benefits of around 1,900 deferred members of the scheme, as well as 3,000 retirees."

They are not sectors! And we have our own products in those sectors that we want to trade, or at least we should if we are "Global Britain".

Justafew: "The UK should agree to regulatory alignment in those sections of the market it wishes to access and no other."

Can you name me a sector that the UK does not currently have any access to/ do business with?

"The UK should not agree to regulatory alignment as that stops us from raising our standards..."

Can you show me where it says that the standards the EU sets can not be exceeded by the UK if we wish.

Thank you.
GS

Odds, it may well. That's one of the reasons I hold CARD (and have increased recently).
But social distancing will limit the footfall in shops for a while to come. The internet offering needs to make up the difference.
Many of the non-card products (e.g. birthday helium balloons) won't be in such high demand because those gatherings have reduced and will be limited in their pick-up.
And higher taxes pretty much for everyone will force people into choices. Some will definitely down-market to CARD from more expensive offerings. That'll be good. Others will reduce purchases across the board, which will be harmful.
Government support (e.g. business rates) will have to end.
And CARD must keep an eye on its debt.
I generally don't like retail because shareholders are too often the last to be rewarded. CARD seems to have/had a strong focus on rewarding shareholders and I hope will again.
It's positive to hear how busy the shops are. So fingers crossed.
Guitarsolo

Hi Didar, I wouldn't get too excited just yet. This virus is far from over, albeit it is much nicer hearing about vaccines than not. But vaccines will only slow the death rate, not necessarily the infection rate. No one under the age of 50 can expect a vaccine (unless vulnerable I guess) until well into the second half of 2021, if at all. But that means that the under-50s will be expected to all return to workplaces etc without a vaccine on the basis that if they catch it, it is unlikely to kill them! So expect social distancing and other measures to last all of 2021. That has implications for small premises like most of CF's shops. All the more reason to push push push the online offering.
And once, eventually, most of the UK population that want a vaccine have had it (this time next year?), then we have to find a way of paying for it! If the Covid bill alone is c.£300bn on top of already eye-watering debt, I can only see some huge tax rises coming down the road; 2 pence on basic, 3 pence on upper and 5 pence on marginal income rates? Wealth/stealth taxes? Whatever the mix, most people are going to have to pay a lot more in tax and for a very long time. We will each have to decide what we cut out/down on!
Sorry to be pessimistic, and I sincerely hope we can recover from this dreadful year quicker than that. But every development since the beginning of March has been that the situation gets worse and for longer.
Guitarsolo - generally upbeat, now singing the blues!

Thanks Rivaldo, it'll be interesting to see the level of debt at the next update. RNWH has a track record of paying it off quickly and using its balance sheet to good effect for more acquisitions. I wonder if they have their eyes on any distressed specialists?!

I would quite like to hear that the full dividend is being reinstated - I am sure it will be and perhaps even caught-up on the postponed c.6.6p payment. As a long term holder here I feel that the dividend could be more generous, but it's hard to fault RNWH really.

Guitarsolo

I'm not so sure it is bad news in the long-run. The likes of Arcadia constantly forced landlords into CVAs so they probably weren't paying much rent anyway (for the spaces they had). They were zombie companies, massively in debt and would fail eventually. If they go bust, there is space for a new breed of retailers to enter the market who aren't weighed down by their past.
Of course, in the short term there will be plenty of empty shops which will drive rents down. Time for NRR's fabled "affordable rents" to step forward! Also, the move to online will only hasten. But the failing retailers in particular have failed to adapt to the changing world, hence their failure. The new breed will grow in a world where they have always competed against the internet. They'll be adapted for it.
Human beings are social animals (Covid proves that). We (not me!) still enjoy going out to do some of our shopping, eating etc. When we're allowed to again, my bet is that will resume.
If the old retailers who only ever threatened CVAs have gone bust, a new blood take over their space, the retail model is not dead! I think NRR know this and seem quite selective about who they want as tenants. Treat them well and they should treat their landlord well in return. It should be a symbiotic relationship.
I'm hanging in for NRR since I sit on a massive paper loss. Hoping they can build UFFO and the dividend next year.
Guitarsolo

Excellent news! The dividend is being reinstated to it's previous level of 58c (2x29c) with the next payment to registered shareholders on 27th November (payable 7th January).

"Reflecting the positive outlook for the portfolio, the Board has determined to increase the second interim dividend, and to return to a normal level of dividend payments from FY 2021 onwards."

So they were being prudently cautious back in the summer and the portfolio of companies have held up well under Covid.

It still leaves them a tad short of their long-term pledge to pay out 5-8% of the NAV (if indeed that still stands), with NAV probably now north of Euros 13. Still, for the moment, I am happy just to see the dividend return to previous levels. We can worry about it increasing in 2021!

Well done PEY.

Guitarsolo

And they're buying again; 225k on Thursday, 500k on Friday.
My guess is that they're using more maturing funds from existing investments, buying at well below the NAV. That means we will have a smaller company (fewer investments) but fewer shares in circulation to divide it by. It's a neat way of holding up the NAV (c. 92p?) and I suppose should mean that the dividend is more and more easily covered. So long as they can maintain enough scale to be able to find the right balance sheet investments.
Stonking yield at this price.
Guitarsolo

".......when you leftist elite can't accept the outcome of a vote, it's the lefty way,......"

Hmmmmm.

Afternoon Devon! I've been very pleased with PEY over the years. There's consistent upticks in the NAV and they're now touching EUR 13.
Even if Europe/ UK is in the midst of a bad 2nd pandemic wave, I'm hoping for a fairly upbeat set of comments leading into the end-of-year dividend. They cut it earlier to allow them to assess the capital requirements of the companies they own, which was sensible. Assuming there aren't too many of them likely to tap their shareholders for money, it might mean they can resume their dividend policy of paying out 5-8% of the NAV. They've been at the lower end of this for quite a few years (and I don't expect that to change). But even 5% would be 64.8c (about 58p). They halved the payout in June, again perfectly justified. It would be nice (from my perspective) to take that back up to 29p per half-year. Fingers crossed!
But whatever, just solid monthly increases in NAV is helpful/impressive.
Guitarsolo

Morning All,
My average for NRR is way up there so I'll expect to be underwater for many years. However, I did add a small number at 46p a few weeks ago so feeling better about that.
Retail is a rapidly changing world for sure but bricks and mortar is not dead imo. Firstly, there is growing pressure on the government to (rightly) level the taxation playing field for the non bricks and mortar. Secondly, a lot of jobs depend on retail and there is a valid interest in "saving the high street". Thirdly, there is going to be plenty of re-purposing of retail and office space into e.g. residential. This will put people nearer to the retail. And lastly (for now!) is that NRR seems to have more assets in the affluent centres which are less likely to be affected in downturns. I hope I am right about that!
But the reason I am prepared to stick with NRR really is the track record of management. It's a faith thing I guess and perhaps I shouldn't have any given the share price over the last two years! But I am hoping things aren't as bad as they seem. Get the LTV under control with disposals. Collect as much rent as possible. Reinstate the divi at affordable/ REIT compliant levels!