Member Info for Guitarsolo

I would much rather the excess capital is used to put Aviva in a position to increase its dividend more rapidly over the next 3-4 years to get it back up to where it was (circa 30p), rather than a special dividend now.
Amanda Blanc is being a predictable new CEO; cut the dividend, sell off some non-core assets, look to rebuild the dividend to make it look like it's always increased under her tenure! Still, can't complain, it might have been the first move in the playbook but doesn't mean to say it isn't the right one.
Have we still got all those moaners on board (Redaking?) who just wanted the share price to rise a bit so that they could ditch this piece of ****? They seem to have gone quiet! Or perhaps they have just sold and moved on?!

You're right....they're back!
Interesting because there's no longer the big discount to NAV (which I think is around 95p at the moment).
Is it the start of a run? Is there a motive here (to make VPC's stake big enough to put it in striking distance of a takeover)? I've no idea.
Are they looking to reduce the share count to increase the EPS and then increase the dividend? I'd like that!
Guitarsolo - reaching for the plectrum again

Sorry Roxbury, I disagree. What's the difference between a shareholder stating they think a share price will go up (to benefit themselves) compared to a non-shareholder thinking the price will drop (so they can get in cheaper)? If either argument is supported by an explanation why, it is up to the other party to decide.
Paddy has explained why he thinks the share price will drop until the liquidity position is sorted. Fair enough. I understand that. Others have explained why they think (mostly long-term) the price will recover. I can understand that as well.
I will hold. I will probably support a rights issue. I am wary of debt restructuring favouring the lender. I wish companies would have much less debt so that they control the debt before the debt controls them.

(Unless of course Paddy has a massive short position and is just stirring up trouble to create sellers....then he would be a complete ******! But he hasn't as far as we know.)

Correction, it was WRKS board not SAGA....

DON'T BUY SAGA BASED ON THAT!!!!

Roxbury below: "I would never try to influence or advise other PIs or in his case push it down people’s throats."

Roxbury yesterday on SAGA board: "Minimum 50% uplift on this in the next 12 Months IMO." (stated several times in last few days)

Might be right, might be wrong, I dunno. But is that any different to Paddy stating his position on CARD?

Roxbury below: "I would never try to influence or advise other PIs or in his case push it down people’s throats."

Roxbury yesterday on SAGA board: "Minimum 50% uplift on this in the next 12 Months IMO." (stated several times over the last few days)

Might be right might be wrong, I dunno, but is that any different to Paddy stating his thoughts?

Poker, the only way in which "the City" sets the price of a rights issue is if it is a standby right issue underwritten by a third party (investment bank) who agrees to buy up any warrants not taken up. Now CARD may have been in those discussions already and may have lined up said underwriter(s). But the rights issue must first be put to the existing shareholders and in most cases (certainly with a company in any sign of trouble) will be at a discount to current prices. So, if CARD needs to raise money it will be at a bigger proportion of market cap than if the share price were higher. All proportionate if you take up your rights but if you don't you're going to be more diluted with a low share price/rights issue than a higher share price/rights issue. So the timing of it matters.

The thing about bullet-in boards is that they can become echo chambers. Most readers/ contributors will be shareholders and by definition will want things to be going well. I have a modest holding in CARD, my only retailer, at an average in the 60s by virtue of a legacy holding from a few years back that drags up the average. I do want CARD to succeed and I have previously voiced concern about the levels of debt they felt comfortable with but I never have (personal reasons). If debt servicing becomes their downfall I will only become stronger in my views about companies and their debt.
But I think Paddy is providing a good balance to the echo chamber here. He says CARD is un-investable whilst the liquidity issue it sorted. I would half agree, half not. I would say they are a huge punt until we know what they will do to raise cash. If it is a RI, it would be at below current market price so would drag it down (albeit current shareholders would only lose out if they didn't subscribe). You don't wait for your share price to be on the floor to do a rights issue! Granted the last 12 months have been exceptional, but I have been planning in my own company for any possible turn of events including lockdown after lockdown. If money is needed, a rights issue should have been done ages ago and during a trading period!
But we are where we are. They need cash to get through to the re-opening. My guess is a debt restructuring, but that'll favour the lender not the shareholders. Personally, I won't put more money in until I know for sure there is no rights issue coming. CARD was/is a good company and the underlying demand for the product will not have changed much (the route to sales might have a bit). It owns the whole production line so it will make profits again. The question is, who will get them? And for that, I want to see a board of directors that looks out for
Guitarsolo (and other shareholders!)

Lovelace/Latpull, I think a little perspective is needed on your posts. (And to be fair to Latpull, his/her posts have at least moved on from being 99% about vaccines, so I acknowledge that.)
But about the vaccine status (!), you're overplaying this remarkedly. Firstly, the NHS etc has done a remarkable job to give first doses to approx. 13 million people. But only about 550,000 have had both doses (it helps if you know a Tory MP apparently).
When they have to switch most of the attention to the second doses there will inevitably be a massive slowdown in the people receiving first doses.
Secondly, even with the extremely rapid rollout, we will only be in a position where the over 70s (and medics etc) have had their second does + 3 weeks by around June. But that's just the over 70s! Yes, it makes a huge difference to the number of people who will die from this virus (for now) but that age group is not really the driving force of the economy (and probably not CARD customers I should imagine).
Thirdly, the media is only starting to report the long-term consequences of this virus being given the opportunity to mutate so readily by too many countries around the world (including our very own). There will be developments of increased transmissibility (the Kent variant), increased morbidity (the Bristol and Brazilian variants), and increased resistance to the current vaccines (the South African variants). Plus a whole load more variants to come. We will need considerable development of variant sequencing and vaccine development for years to come. This is going to be a very long-term battle over many years I fear, unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a non-virulent form. There is no cure for a virus by the way Latpull, only occasional anti-viral treatments - but not for coronaviruses as far as we know.
I am sure lockdown will be lifted after Easter, but I don't see a return to business as normal for the whole economy. Companies (including CARD) will need to adapt to the new world.
I don't mean to bring negativity, but there needs to be balance to too much "yey, look at the numbers".
Guitarsolo

OK, done my bit to help the coffers.....and keep Mrs Guitarsolo sweet on the 14th.

So after another 3.1% increase in December 2020 the NAV for the close of the year (31.12.2020) is EUR 13.35.

Pretty impressive stuff. Now, according to their statement from about a month ago, the plan is to pay out a dividend of 5% of the opening NAV for 2021 (i.e. EUR 13.35), in two equal parts. So by my reckoning that should be 2 x 33.375c = 66.75c for the year.

What that translates into in GBP will obviously depend on the exchange rate at the time. But that's a healthy increase in Euros at least. Well done PEY!

Guitarsolo

Here's my two-pence worth.
Before COVID, Card was a good profit earner, regularly turning out post-tax profit between £50-80m (EPS 15p-19p) or thereabouts. They focused on rewarding shareholders with a solid dividend and specials that brought it up to a healthy payout. They ran at a debt level that they felt comfortable with (even if it was higher than I would have chosen, but that's driven by my personal history not theirs). They have a dominant store presence. They have a fledgling online presence (that can/ must be ramped up guys!). They control the production line from design to printing to sales. No one else does that. That's why they can sell the stuff dirt cheap.
Working against Card is the minimum wage (I would like to see Card move to a higher standard of ESG governance personally). Also, the near 1,000 property leases have a long-term drag. But that can be turned to an advantage as well.
Naturally, the pandemic will have hit a non-essential retailer. So it's a matter of how to get through to a time when trading resumes and, after that, "normal life" resumes. My guess (thanks to Latpulldown for the vaccine info!) is that they will be allowed to reopen circa April/May......but the full return to normal life is 2022 (perhaps a bumper Xmas 2021?).
The issue: The issue is cash and when they will need more of it and where will it come from. Rights issue, Placing, Bank loans. Who knows. There are plusses and minuses for all options.
But I refer back to my first paragraph. Card was nicely profitable in normal times, and will be again. It's business has not been re-written by Covid as many business's have (no fundamental shift to lifestyles). Card will sell cards again, and helium balloons and novelty whatevers. It can compete/ beat the bricks and mortar opposition (easily). It can take on/beat the online presence (Moonpig etc) because it controls the whole vertical operation and the bottom line is that people will be desperate for interaction once life can return to normal.
So I reckon, if Card need more cash short-term, whatever option they choose, there will be support for them.
Card can/will return to profitability. Perhaps not 2021. But it will, and they have a habit of rewarding shareholders. Don't expect dividends to be in double-figures for a few years, but I reckon they will get there on a 5-year horizon.
And then 35p per share will look very attractive.
I've got a modest holding at an average of 60-70p (owing to an initial tranche back a few years at 170p or something). If you dive in now, you are gambling on the covenants - which can go one of two ways! Gamble if you want super big returns. Wait to see the cash covenant position be resolved and take a smaller long-term profit but with less risk, if you prefer.
Gonna end it there.....life's too short!
Guitarsolo

FFS. We really don't need DAILY virus stats! It doesn't relate directly to CARD. Perhaps once-a-fortnight mention of when lockdown might be ending. will suffice
450+ posts in 30 days always about vaccines.
And you don't think you're on here with an agenda?!

Well that's the point isn't is Carllapos? I have no care whatsoever for latpulldown's political persuasion. But he/she has issued over 1,400 posts across multiple bulletin boards in the last 5 months, most recently ONLY commenting on the vaccine rollout.
I think this is one of the few positives in a sea of **** with this government's response to Covid. But this BB isn't about politics. It's about investing and specifically in CARD.
Latpulldown is posting the same vaccine message to multiple boards. Only about vaccines. Only in support of the government (although they have little to do with it). Hence my belief that he/she is here with an agenda.
Please stop swamping bulletin boards with "your message". We can read the news. We can see where we are with the vaccine rollout. There is nothing else required from you unless you wish to comment about company specifics.
Post nothing about vaccines (on CARD or other bulletin boards) for 2 weeks.......can you?
Guitarsolo

Latpulldown, you're very thin-skinned aren't you?! I merely point out that you have such an obsession with posting vaccine-related data that you're here with an agenda, and you start getting all defensive. But 443 posts in 30 days (over 1,400 in five months), mostly vaccine-related suggests me that I am right.
And why do you think I want a cheaper re-entry point? I haven't sold! Just more b****cks! I have a modest holding here for the long-term because I generally don't like retail and only rate CARD because it is cheap (perhaps for good reason) and has a philosophy of rewarding shareholders.
You seem to have become very defensive as soon as challenged about your posts. Oh well, I can't help that.

Presume that's supposed to be in my direction.

Latpulldown, you're flooding this and other LSE bullet-in boards with endless vaccine posts (CARD, CINE, IAG, EZJ, LLOY, ASOS, TLW, HMSO, NETW).

17 posts to CARD in a week - all about vaccines.
392 posts on LSE in that last month - mostly about vaccines as far as I can see.

You're a new member to LSE (joined August 2020) so my suspicious mind usually jumps to bot (what else is Dominic Cummings doing?). But given your ability for an almost insult, I would say more likely a real person. But vaccine rollout has only minor relevance to all these bullet-in boards and so I would think a new poster, with 392 posts in a month to multiple boards about semi-off-topic matters trying to paint a rosy picture of this government (when they need all the help they can get), suggests to me that you're here with an agenda. When there is something good happening, flood the airwaves to drown out the ****storms around us and hope no-one will notice.

Could be right, could be wrong. But true as clockwork, you popped up today with the vaccine numbers. I hope they're paying you well!

Guitarsolo

Ruing my decision to sell out a small holding at 293p a few weeks back. I was too tempted to pocket the 60% gain.

Lesson to learn: When you've got a good company, just hold and hold and hold!

Would love to get back to SOM at some point. In the meantime, good luck to all shareholders. This is a good company and that is rare!

Latpulldown, many thanks for the run down.

However, to keep things in perspective, we shouldn't be saying (or repeating the government) that e.g 70% of over 80s have been vaccinated when they have only received the first dose. Just say "70% have received their first dose". Otherwise, you are propagating a falsehood ....and we have enough of those around. What you say about better for 70% to have had dose #1 than 35% having both is correct imo.

I disagree with your statement though about the mortality rate of the new variant - that would kill 13/1000 instead of 10/1000. When you state an absolute rate (on its own) then yes, it has increased from 1.0 to 1.3. However, when you are using a comparator rate, then one is 30% higher than the other.
(If 2 people per 1000 die from a shark attack swimming off Australia compared to 1% of swimmers off New Zealand, then you are twice as likely to die by shark attack swimming off Australia....not 1% more). Statistics are so easily manipulated that it is essential to be clear.

But got to be pleased with the vaccination rate. It may not reach me until next September, but so be it.

Guitarsolo

"But I get a feeling he’s more of a hand in the till chairman than a hand in his pocket."

Careful, you're close to being libelous there! (well, in my world)

Re cash reserves, it's always been one of my concerns re CARD. They have deliberately operated with a level of debt that I would not have (but then I help run a £2m company, not a £200m company). Leverage brought increased earnings but I personally always prefer to expect a ****storm at any point and not want debts to control me.

Control your debts before your debts control you.....

Guitarsolo

Not trying to be patronising latpulldown....but when you make many posts that things are improving, but your starting point is an abysmal one, it comes across as ....well we should all be a bunch of happy fish! Take it however you wish.
The vaccine rate is impressive compared to other peer countries, long may that continue. Credit to the public health bodies, the NHS, the armed forces and numerous volunteers.