Member Info for GSmiley

@moorhey My son has a Skrill mastercard account which he uses for ALL his online shopping. Including gambling merchants such as Tesco Direct, Amazon and Ebay. So your post is mistaken. GS

Sorry - PAYS (old habits)...

Agree completely with the thought. Recessions are inevitable and a fact of economic life. However I think the 7/8 cycle is a bit quick. If a recession is defined as a couple of consecutive quarters of negative growth (contraction) then the range can be anything up to 20 years. Recessions are almost always preceded by really frothy growth. Given QE and the state of world economies, I think we are still quite some time away from that. Long enough for OPAY to realise good growth into the 250 and hopefully beyond. GS

Press release at https://www.paysafe.com/fileadmin/user_upload/15_11_10_Paysafe_Q3_Trading_Update_FINAL.pdf

A couple of comments: 1. Opay is currently valued on the basis of its earnings post the takeover of Skrill, not on its own results for 2014. 2. That places it at a DISCOUNT to its peers. There appears to be little credit in its valuation for future growth. 3. There are a number of reasons for that. These include a reservation over the ability of the management to deliver a smooth "consolidation" of the two businesses, its involvement in gambling and its dependence on a large Chinese customer. 4. There is nothing wrong with buying a company with borrowed money. It is the PREFERRED route for most companies if they can as it does not dilute shareholders. 5. Bankers are interested in collateral and return. It is their job to be risk averse. All of which adds up to the simple fact that OPAY appears to be vulnerable to a bid from a much larger business that is either already in this space or wants to enter. That bid would certainly be at a premium. I think the hope of many here is that there is a bidding war. It is certainly mine as I am interested in annual rates of growth in my portfolio and it is unlikely that OPAY, no matter how well it does is going to beat a six month return (in my case) of about 100% if we see a bid this year at a price needed to knock the opposition out. GS

... I think £3.65 is rights adjusted. Given CMD on Tuesday I would not be at all surprised to see 3.65 broken on Monday, but the sp may well take a step back sometime on Tuesday... However, assuming an upbeat update and a clear timetable to listing I would have thought that £4 before Xmas was perfectly feasible. I also think that the market either has to rerate OPAY to bring its valuation into line with its peers, or we will see a bid - because it is undervalued - at which point all sensible predictions go out of the window. GS

Mine only arrived yesterday. It was paid in dollars (always is) so you may find yours in a forex account. Good write up in SCSW today - one day the market will wake up to XLM. It is now another share on my list of "something has to go terribly, awfully, horribly wrong for this to lose me money" shares. Things that are not perfect with it include being Israeli, being in gambling, being controlled by the CEO etc etc. However it is a cash cow, it pays a great dividend, it is in a growing market, the CEO has not put a foot wrong so far, its growth is explosive and as far as I can tell it is a market leader in its field. The real tell tale for me is that profit becomes cash.... I have dithered about XLM, but I have now decided this is one of my long term buys/holds so I will be adding whenever I can. And at this price a long spreadbet should not go far wrong. GLA GS

HI Spikey Good write up in SCSW today so I imagine we will see an uptick on Monday. Having said which I will reduce sometime during the day. Have done very well here since the end of August and (although I have defended the cash flow on this bb recently) the more I look at it, the less I like it. There is an awful lot of stuff on the balance sheet under Non-Current Assets. Excluding fixed assets, these increased by about £22m to over £60m on a pre tax of only £14.1m. So if there is anything seriously wrong with revenue recognition or if any of their acquisitions turn out to be a dud then UTW could easily restate to 31st July 2015 as a loss. I don't think they will, but whereas with other shares I see no realistic possibility of an adverse rerate, I can't say the same here. Like the model, will keep some shares, but until they get a decent FD my exposure will be the profit I have made in the last 2+ months. GLA GS

In a sense I think this is a Warren Buffett share. One of the pieces of analysis he does is "can I lose a lot of money here in a worst case scenario" . Well, while I am sure there will be issues and scare stories, if my maths is correct and QPP is worth 130p+ in cash alone, then the disaster needs to be about 40% for me to be out of pocket. I cannot see that possibility. GS

Can someone please correct anything they think is wrong here. I am looking at this with a time horizon of about 12 months. From recent RNS releases, we can expect to receive a total of 108p per share over time. 90p +10p + 8p - the last from contingent consideration. Cash assets of QPP are (in millions) £525 (last accounts)+50 (in escrow) +39 (contingent). Total £614m. Less distributions above of £504.6 leaves £110m in the bank which is 24p per share. So in cash I get 108+24 = 132p per share of which 108 will end up in my pocket. Add the 24p in cash that is left behind to the remaining QPP businesses which I assume is more than zero. So the sp today looks as if it is at a discount of about 40% to CASH and (my guess) about 60% to enterprise value including cash. Maybe that is why I bought more this afternoon... GLA GS

Not arguing, just observing. Barring bad news re data breaches which I would not expect, then it is more more likely imo that the sp will carry on upwards as it has (generally) over the last few days. We could easily be at or past 350 by 10th. Bit stuck around 343 at present but I imagine that will break today or tomorrow. The bad news is that this is AIM. The better the update on 10th, the bigger the spike and the bigger the fall in sp immediately afterwards. It will recover later, but don't be surprised if 350 on Monday night opens at 360, hits 370-380 and then flops back to 340. On a good update. GS

Absolutely. When I was buying on the rise from 300 last week, our of 8 buys, 7 showed as sells GS

Of course. There is any amount of research out there that suggests dividend reinvestment is a fundamental driver of portfolio growth. I think this share is fundamentally undervalued (misunderstood?) and will stay that way for some time. So reinvesting your dividend gives you a chance to make hay while the sun shines. Hopefully. GS

with multiple post repeats (this one perhaps?) The MF article is pretty poor journalism. Paypoint is probably more under threat from the likes of Applepay than anyone else precisely because of its network of bill pay outlets and because that development seems to have either stopped or slowed on its payment gateway(personal experience). At the same time the barriers to entry are high - a friend of mine at Apple says that ApplePay is one of the biggest bets Apple has taken in recent years. One has to remember that Apple's resources are vast and so they can do pretty much anything they want if they set their mind to it.

@arsenal - out of respect for your name; Woodford is not a trader. He invests on the fundamentals in companies that he thinks will prove to have been undervalued long term. I do not think he has price targets, he has valuation targets and I think that UTW is a very long way from those, even at 230p. GS

I started off by assuming that this would be put to bet on 10th November at OPAY's capital markets day. No point having an update when the fear of a Talk Talk breach hangs over your head. However, the more I think about it, the more I believe that the BoD will do its level best to get this bottomed out and put to bed before that. Assuming the outlook on 10th is good, I would much prefer to go into meetings with analysts et al with a question like this (elephant in the room) already put to bed and my sp recovering/ed. So I am hopeful for an RNS with further and better particulars in the next very few days. In fact I am betting quite heavily on it.... GLA GS

Yup - this is a big part of my portfolio so I watch it and have alerts set so I know what is going on if something changes. Stop losses without that, on AIM, are an almost guaranteed way to lose money as the market almost always recovers after a very heavy fall. As it seems to be here. I would not be surprised to see the sp in the 320's by cob. GLA (and me too) GS

Back in at 285-287. AIM always over-reacts and although not nice, the RNS does smell of dirty tricks or a bored journo somewhere. Plenty of time to sort it out before FTSE entry and as long as the BoD do this time what they did last (which was to throw premier division consulting firms at the problem, then this should be ok in the end. But I bet it will be bumpy for a while. GS

@BB Ha ha - I know, but it was not worrying then as there were no customer losses. I suspect this will prove to be the same, because if I have had my data stolen/prejudiced/used in 2011 and lost something I would have complained by now. So my bet is this will be storm in a teacup. Having said which I got stopped out in the 320's and must not grumble. But it is a bad RNS as I would have thought it might be worth while trying to put some quantum on the whole fiasco. GS

Hi Spikey I think the recent RNS' have N. Woodford's fingerprints all over them. He still must be north of £10m down on this investment. Because UTW has overpromised and under-delivered. Whatever, a good day and a far cry from 150ish two months ago. Not sure there is much to stop this going to 220-240 by the time of the next update assuming the new COO runs a tight ship. GS