Member Info for GSmiley

@wolf Fingers crossed. My shares in OPAY will take care of themselves irrespective of timing, but a real hike in sp would be just the thing for the Mar-16 spreadbet.... :-))) GS

Looks like someone heard GS

A huge set of broad assumptions. On the basis of 2016 forecast EBITDA, OPAY is a little under half the size of Worldpay. Given the talk about Wirecard/Worldpay, I would expect if someone came after OPAY the sp to be in the region of 500-600p. If they are comparable in terms of business model, if the difference in size does not make too much difference to the multiple, if someone else were to be interested etc etc. Still no one is going to get it for 300p...... GS

Small Company Share Watch - a subscription newsletter that has a good reputation. (perhaps because its authors are LTHs in many of the companies they tip). It is absolutely not infallible, but its tips are worth looking at and its portfolios have performed very well indeed over the last umpteen years. GS

@techni - pleasure. o/T if you want another, similar but different, look at xlm. Happy to talk about that on their board as well. I suspect the jump here was also courtesy of SCSW which gave UTW a pretty good write up this month. If that is the case then the sp will probably drift back a bit (it usually does) , but with results out at the end of October and Woodford holding firm this still looks a steal to me. The icing on the cake would be a new, top class FD. I rather hope Neil is whispering in Geoff Thompson's ear.... GL GS

So would the ticker be PAYS?

@rivldo - wondered why you had not commented earlier. Good way to end a holiday. I think I am coming round to your thinking about valuation - about the only counter argument is that the CEO owns/controls very nearly 50%. Which is a lot. I would be happier if we saw him moving some of his stock in a placing to an ii. But there is nothing wrong with the business or its markets so I think I am now happy to wait. :-) GL GS

@david I have no idea if the price rise today will be sustained, so I can't comment on timing. All I can add to my earlier post on this board (immediately under this on titled "GS" is that I think the reason the sp is as low as it is is because the company has communicated its growth strategy really badly. This has meant that 2 recent results RNS' have triggered a fall in sp even though the underlying numbers are good. A lot of AIM is about managing expectations, and growing "a lot" is deeply disappointing when the expectation is "growing a very great deal".... Add in China and the woeful sp seems explainable to me. I have no real idea at present what the sp ought to be, but Woodford's average is way over 200p. If this stock was a darling of the market, and if the next results were ahead of expectations, a p/e of double what you see now would be pretty easy to justify. GL GS

@wolf Good spot. Probably explains the gap up. What is also encouraging is that Citi have pulling power in terms of attracting investors. I think they rank either 3 or 4 in the US in terms of funds under management. Inevitably, some of those will be heading this way.Good news. GS

:-) Sort of what I thought re the trend (hard not to see that , but the neck/shoulders analysis is interesting. As you know from another place, I look for value/strong fundamentals and this seems to fit that bill. I doubt it will fly over the moon in the next few days/weeks, but I cannot see it staying at these levels for too long. Anyway I am long... Many thanks indeed - and maybe see you over here a bit. GS

@techni In no order, but just as they come into my head. UTW either charges fees or takes a slice of savings it finds when it advises corporates, large and small, primarily on energy and water consumption/usage/efficiency. It is part price comparison, part smart tech, part standard cost benefit/inertia selling. 1. Profitable 2. Cash generating (strip out the investment in futures) 3. 30,000+ recurring corporate customers and growing 4. Fragmented space and a consolidator 5. Neil Woodford has built a stake of 26% since he set up on his own. Long time fan and went public recently about his due diligence here (see below). He has it as a significant stake in both his funds. Not all is great however. 1. Revenue recognition is aggressive but acceptable (better than QPP anyway). 2. Penultimate results were short of expectations with the excuse being that UTW was taking advantage of an opportunity to secure ... etc etc 3. Last results were short of expectations because.... guess. 4. However after this Woodford increased his stake exactly enough to force an RNS (i.e. effectively restated his confidence). 5. 3 above was compounded by the half year results being announced in the heat (chill) of China which triggered a fall from the 220's to the 150's. UTW has no exposure there at all. I suspect that we will see a new FD at some stage as disappointing the City twice in quick succession is a no-no and smacks of poor forecasting. Nevertheless, for a profitable, cash generating, annuity business, that is growing quickly, in a consolidating space, with a top quality long term ii backing it to the hilt to be on its current p/e is imo criminal. I think the sp is resting on a solid support level and so it looks a roaring buy to me. There was an interview yesterday with the MD at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTvI7Y9WsyM&feature=youtu.be - (first posted here by ddon1808) which might fill in some gaps. Oh, present company excepted, there are a couple of fairly sensible investors on this bb. They may add quality to the above. Love to hear your views GS

On a purely selfish note, I think 292+ might be a bit hopeful, but you deserve it for your input here (as long as it recovers afterwards.... :-). However today will seem like a reasonable recovery after yesterday, if it holds through the afternoon and I will be very happy with consolidation in the 310-320 area for a few days. Don't usually shout, but have you looked at UTW? If you do and are interested, message me over there. Worth a look imo. GS

@techni Enjoyed yesterday in the masochistic sense that I was able to buy some back at pretty much what I sold them for earlier. You must have had a strange sense of satisfaction having warned the pull-back was a possibility.. :-) However it now, feels as if we might be breaking through the resistance around 306-7. Assuming that holds today, what does your crystal ball hold? GS

Good spot. Interesting to hear the man. Shame he was cut off short when faced with "you need to work on the sp". I guess he knows that....

Expect blistering results on 21st. You don't accelerate the payment of deferred consideration voluntarily unless something is going very well indeed. GS

I think we are all having a blast as well. Really satisfying when a plan comes together... No advice coming here, but I am happy to tell you what I will do here going forward. I will set a target at which I will take profit. Shares almost never move in straight lines, and generally the steeper the rise, the steeper the retracement. Which is almost inevitable in the end. I have already done that once in the last few weeks and have no regrets. A profit is a profit. I also regard a portion of my investment (about half) here as being a very long term hold irrespective of sp just as long as the fundamentals stay good. For me those are that OPAY is very well managed, rapidly growing and in a ballooning market with high barriers to entry. On that basis it will become a giant or get eaten by one and either way I will do very well. If any of that changes I will review. GL GS

The next resistance level is somewhere around 325-7. If it fails to break that, then there might be a retrace to about 310. Listen to/look at the podcast @techni posted yesterday if you like technicals. I am afraid that from a company valuation perspective OPAY is still underpriced imo. So you take your pick. As for other shares, this is no place for a list, but if you look at my posting history and ignore QPP the others in the top 5 (including this share) all have something to recommend them. If you want to talk about any of them, post on the relevant bb. GL GS

Like I said - if I knew how to trade.... shows how much I know. Thank goodness I only lightened my load a little. And stops on spreadbets are a wonderful thing as once you are in profit you can relax and enjoy. Which I am very much at present. It is rather tempting just to sell my entire portfolio and take it to IG index or whoever.... gear up and... go totally bust GLA GS

Last year they were mid-Sept GS

@Techni - like I said - from memory. But Dec is the earliest for 250 entry I think. Which might be perfect as there is a trading update due in November if OPAY follows last year. That ought to start to talk about the outlook post takeover and with luck will whet a few more ii appetites. GS