Member Info for GSmiley

Topsliced elsewhere and added at 66.20 (only trade today so far), and it ticks down. Good think this is one I will let run... GLA GS

Not sure I agree about the overpaying bit 4x ebitda for a bolt on is hardly a lot. Totally concur about Charlie Skinner. I have met him and rate him very highly. Great brain, very careful and thinks hard before he acts. Always has a plan and sticks with it. Top class manager. That and recurring revenues is why I am here. GL GS

Well it is certainly due. GS

worried?

As always it is pointless speculating, but the TV is on hold while her indoors talks to her Mum so.... When today kicked off I though we were going to get a rerun of the mm attack on the sp so as fill orders. And to some extent I think we did, but barring about 5 minutes, the bid never went below 276 whereas it wa threatening 270 for most of Friday. And now a holder knows that the t/o is complete, OPAY must be derisked and so worth more this evening than it was this morning. On that basis logic suggests that the sp will rise between here and 26th Aug. I still think the mm's will have another go at the sp, but I cannot imagine any mm taking a large order for stock in the low 270's any more and every time an order is filled the sp bounces afterwards. Higher and higher each time. I am doubtful that we will break 300p on Tuesday (I would love it though) but I think it must fall sometime this week. If that happens then Techni's levels are well and truly breached and the sp could really fly. What I really think is that this is a share where you let the profit runAlthough I have had a lot of profit out of it over the last few years, I have also invested heavily recently in the range £2.20-2.50 and again at £2.74-76. I have absolutely no intention of top slicing any of that or selling the stock I had running for free already. The end game here is either a very lean, mean racing machine on a dizzy p/e or a snack for someone who wants to play in online payments in a big way. Either way the sp should be multiples of today's. Telly is back on GLA GS

I know nothing about what he might do. However, his profit tax will hit them to the tune of about £30m (only 10x what Cameron gave to KIDS last week) so the money hardly matters. It does however hit them in terms of capital structure and so restricts their ability to lend which they seem to be able to do very much more effectively than the big boys. I remember seeing the £30m number somewhere (Economist??) so don't shoot me on the detail. Osborne is very practical though and he has the best nose in British politics for silly policies. So I would not be surprised if he took another look at this. Especially as the CEO's of the challenger banks are just the sort of people he likes talking to. For me there are three maybe that look like good investments even if the tax stays (obviously ALD is one). And if it goes, then they fly. So I ought to end up either happy or very happy.... GL GS

..so far. Roaring along nicely thank you. GS

Good to have you here Techni Quiet is good. I am quietly hoping the Chancellor works out that at least one of his budget measures is counter productive. Osborne is pragmatic so that is perfectly possible. If so, we may see a bounce similar to the drop (which was overdone anyway imho). GLA GS

I am really no expert, but I would think that OPAY will have virtually completed the first "half" of the premium listing process by now. That is the private bit (you can find the timetable on page 24 at http://www.londonstockexchange.com/home/guide-to-listing.pdf). They will also have consulted with the UK Listing Authority and would never have issued the RNS worded as it is today without having had positive feedback already. So I think there will be about 6-8 weeks before they get their listing. That is likely to be mid/end October and the first review date after that is for inclusion in the December FTSE 250 list. So putting unknown unknowns (takeovers, holdings announcements etc) to one side, the news flow for the rest of the year looks pretty much like this: 1. Half yearly results - end August 2. Issue of prospectus very close to that date. If half yearly numbers are to be included then early September. 3. Admission to FTSE Premium Listing - October 4. Admission to FTSE250 - December. The RNS feels bullish in terms of trading so I would expect the half yearly numbers to be at the top end of expectations and if so the smarter ii managers will recognise that OPAY stuck to its knitting while nailing a reverse takeover at the same time. Another gold star for management. I am sure the mm's will have a couple more attempts at stealing few more pi shares but the more ii's that buy in, the harder that gets. So, all in all, a good day. GLA GS

Techni Thanks very much. All grist to the mill. I would be confident that we will consolidate for a bit. Confirmation of the completion of the acquisition of Skrill (either today or tomorrow) will probably give us a bit of a lift and then we will only be 2 weeks away from the half yearly numbers which I think will: 1. be good 2. Talk a little bit about Skrill integration/synergies 3. Hopefully give some indications of timescales to a main market listing. After that I would hope to see aa steadier climb to a more representative sp. GS

Where to with the sp now oh mighty one? P.S.Glad you are back - these are interesting times and your input would be very welcome GS

JD Was not suggesting you were, but was answering someone else who was. I think OPAY main market is (relatively) a formality. 1. It is a heavily regulated business and has effectively just been "re-approved" by the FCA. So it is unlikely to have skeletons in its closet. 2. The nature of its business has not changed despite its increase in size. Recent change of business is a no no for the LSE. Increase in size is not. 3. I do not know this for a fact, but the BoD have not put a foot wrong in the time I have been invested and have always given the impression that they take advice before opening their mouths. I would be amazed if they have not spoken to the LSE before stating their intentions in an RNS. GS

QPP is only relevant in that it CLAIMED to be in a similar position. So research regarding things such as timescales to 250 entry done there applies here too. The similarities end at that point. On your other point about talking the sp down, making timescales clear is not negative. It is just accurate. GS

I am not really bothered, but from memory, the process leading up to main market listing and subsequent 250 entry is sufficiently long-winded for September entry to the 250 to be either unlikely or impossible. December is the most likely date for the 250. GS

BB Looks like good timing. Beat me by 0.25p :-). Still, nice to see a profit on IG so quickly. GS

Sharesplease - You could buy OPAY in the first 2 weeks of July (last month) for between 220 and 230p. It hit 29x post the FCA announcement and is still about 45p above early July prices (20% ish). A further significant rise in sp is inevitable as 250 membership gets closer and there are several stepping stones along the way that will help. However there have also been clear posts here about what would happen after the FCA announcement and it is entirely possible (likely?) the sp will fall further from here before rising again. So you either have a long strategy, which means you keep your eyes on the horizon (and ignore these movements) or a short term one which means you try to trade them (and like them). GS

Just dropped in to see how the MM's were getting on. Looks like Lions 1, Christians 0 at present. Best answer to the why top slice brigade. I always underestimate the market's stupidity in circumstances like these, so my guess is that there is still a little way to go. But like you, another penny or two and...... :-) GS

I would not be too concerned. 1. There is a delay in the reporting process that if played "right" can be 4 working days without risk of penalty. 2. If you are in this long term and believe the fundamentals then it is irrelevant 3. Everybody (even shorters) makes mistakes. Assuming it is still open, it has to be closed and that ought to be good for the sp. GS

...sell on news. Today has been a well rehearsed play. Long awaited news hits, the SP flies, pi's buy. MM's make their money. II's who were waiting for the news now place limit orders with the mm's. Who, being very good at their jobs, manage the market in such a way as to encourage the sp downwards. Fill the orders and... make their money. It is astonishing if you think about it. Against a backdrop of a positive trading statement round the corner, an update on Skrill where the synergies will (probably) be larger than originally announced, main listing and 250 entry and lurking predators, the sp has been forced down 15p as I write, from its peak this morning. And I doubt this is over. I have no idea when I will buy back in yet, but at this rate the sp could easily see the 260's before the retrace is finished. Having said which, this will be short term. The next certain news is at the end of this month. It is entirely possible there will be a couple of large shareholding announcements before then. For those who have not seen this before and do not want to risk trading or top slicing, don't let the market scare you out of shares which are odds on favourites to be higher in 4 weeks than they were this morning when they nearly hit 295p. GS

Certainly hope so - added a few more today. GS