Member Info for GSmiley

Am I right in thinking that at the EBITDA level World Pay in 2014 was about double the size of OPAY+SKRILL (also in 2014). If so the implicit valuation of Worldpay at the mooted IPO price gives room for our sp to nearly double... GS

On the sidelines and watching at present. It seems to me that the "childlike" statements in the trading statement may be a good thing. Creating a successful business is usually not about having enough money (TUNG have had plenty). Instead it is almost invariably about good management - which was my reservation about ET. Good management makes a business simple to the people within it, to its customers and to its suppliers. If that means making simple statements - great. The real issue is whether the new CEO can get TUNG to make them happen. If he does, your short is toast. If he does not, you are in the money all the way to number lower than 40p (imho). GS

@HP Good to hear from you - hope you are well and profitable. Don't know if you are still in ET's outfit where the sp continues to fall despite Odey's best efforts. If so, I would love to hear your thoughts - post over there if you are and I will see it. Funnily enough, Mr S - bully that he is :-) - will probably leave me alone on this. I know from his posts elsewhere (QPP I seem to remember) that he is a fan of stop losses. I am too and I especially use them to protect profits. I normally set them to trail the sp by about 15%, but it just so happened that I moved the sell price up to very close to the sp here because I could not imagine it going down in the 24 hours before SCSW almost certainly comes out with another glowing write up. It was just an insurance move. Like I said, ha ha. But until I hear to the contrary, this is still a good business. GL GS

@Wolf Maybe wishful thinking, but I would think so. As we all know, valuing a share in the future is called "investing" and is fraught. So with all the caveats possible, if all the ifs come to pass, and at the same time no one buys OPAY then I would have thought a price in the £6-7 range at the end of 2016 is possible. That is when all those lovely synergies will be revealed. As a predator, if I believe the story then I would pay a healthy premium to the sp now. If I add in the cost of entry to this market, then a bid in the £5+ range early next year, post FTSE entry, would leave me unsurprised and hoping that that the BoD have the nous to negotiate it up a good bit from there. I may have this completely wrong, but I just cannot believe that some of the payment giants out there are simply going to stand back and watch PayPal have it all their own way. So we probably will not be in play until the Skrill takeover dust has settled and a predator can be reasonably sure there are no skeletons in cupboards, but that is only Q4 this year/Q1 next. So my bet is on a bid before Easter, but like I said, that may just be wishful thinking. GS

Maybe, although XLM has a very different revenue model. However what seems as obvious as the nose on my face is that unless there is a fraud/disaster/bad news leak then this ought to be a brilliant buy in opp. I find myself forced to trade (I am not a trader by inclination) when thi ssort of thing happens. I put in a hiigh stop loss order yesterday thinking that if SCSW either did not write it up or did not glow about it, then the sp would fall back on Monday. Ha ha. Still, I have now bought back in about 12% lower than where I was stopped out because in the absence of anything to the contrary this company was undervalued at 75p and is just more so at 64p. GLA GS

No idea, but thank goodness for stoploss orders..... GS

@Wolf - well I really like the idea of 300+ to 600 over the next few months :-) @Wolf/Techni On fundamentals however, my guess is that the rise may be steeper, but not go as high. There are three lurking "goodies" that I think are excluded from most/all(?) broker outlooks at present. 1. Already much talked about here is the benefit that will flow to the bottom line if the synergies talked about at the time of the Skrill t/o are realised. These were announced as £25-30m ($40m). DYO calcs on the impact on market cap. 2. The initial announcement of the Skrill t/o contained the following (separate) statement in the section on synergies " (the directors) believe there will be additional value upside potential from revenue cross-selling opportunities and platform consolidation". This is over and above the $40m mentioned above. It is not quantified, but would not be worthy of mention unless the BoD thought it material. As an accountant, material to me is not going to be much less than 10% in this context. 3. A US listing. Also not talked about, but surely inevitable. Interesting whether OPAY lists in the US at the same time as it hits the FTSE here or whether it waits a few months. Add up all the above and I I was a "disappointed WorldPay bidder" I would want to buy OPAY before all three of the above kick in. Two disappointed WorldPay bidders and we have an auction. From a spreadbet perspective I really hope this all happens before the June-16 contracts expire... :-) GLA GS

@techni - good to see you here. 197 would be a good first stop although I for one am expecting more given a bit of time. All it needs is for UTW to set and then hit (or even beat) a set of revenue and profit targets. GS

Look out for a very strong write up in SCSW. I have no knowledge but would be gobsmacked if they did not give it another rave review. Which probably means it will be marked up on Monday. GS

... not to talk about the sp doing the opposing of going down. Every time someone does (and I am as guilty as the next man) it plummets. Superstitious - moi? GS

@wolf - Wouldn't that be nice! Even establishing around here would be good as a springboard for FTSE/250 entries which would make £4 by christmas close to a racing certainty. I do not know if you saw the research note posted yesterday by @Oldfool (thanks by the way - good spot) but hidden fairly deep is the statement that the analysts ignored the projected $40m p.a. cost savings OPAY hope to get from the Skrill deal. Incredibly roughly, that is about 8c per share at a p/e of 20+ ought to be at least another £1 per share, maybe £1.50. @techni - anytime you feel like updating your charts..... GLA GS

@wolf I agree and your first three points can be taken as certain (if that is possible on AIM). I am also sure the update will make for good reading. But at the same time, I suspect we may see a bit of profit taking plus some MM games as more ii's try to build a stake. So it is hold fast time I think. GLA GS

I have no idea. I very rarely trade between shares and usually get it wrong. But I think they are both good companies and my views is it is sensible to have both in my portfolio. GS

Speaking of" free to fly" - on another board, SpikeyJ called for his shares to "fly my beauties, fly" And they did. So.... FLY MY BEAUTIES, FLY GLA GS

I know they are serious, but they are so unutterably, unimaginably, staggeringly bad at what they do that one can only laugh. If all else fails, a bunch of us could group together and set up in competition. We would clean up. GS

Next time you decide to misquote, can you please tip the rest of us the wink first? :-) GS

I seem to remember hearing that SP have a mock award for the bb Moron of the week/month/whatever. No prizes for guessing the tipster Complete Prat of the week/month/whatever. GS

Probably explains the rise. GS

I have thought about this and I do not think there is a predator at present. The sp would be a lot higher if there was. GS

@wolf Dunno - but someone was trying very hard to keep the sp down today with a series of iceberg sells around 305. So either someone is filling an order, or someone is filling their boots. However to get OPAY now, I would think there would need to be a hell of a premium because one would expect the BoD to extract full value for the potential in the Skrill deal if nothing else. As that is less likely, I am rather hoping that a few ii's are building stakes in the "let's keep it quiet" <3% range. If so liquidity will diminish quite quickly and the sp will climb. One would expect an announcement re FTSE listing at or before the EGM and that will effectively put an end date on AIM shenanigans. Since we are clearly undervalued now, there would need to be a rerate between that announcement and a premium listing. If so then it looks as if a few ii rats may be trying to get aboard our ship early. In which case the next few days ought to be profitable for all of us. GS