Member Info for GSmiley

Odds on it gets taken private. XLM has never needed the cash it raised at IPO and its sp has not risen enough to allow it to use shares for earnings enhancing acquisitions. There is a cash mountain in the bank - that any financial mechanic could use to support the borrowings needed to buy the shares outside "friendly" hands. Regardless of the register of members that means about 50% imo. There may be a small premium if that happens, but I see no substantial upside and have sold the last of my shares over the past few days. If I am wrong I will buy back in as I love the business model. Good luck if you remain GS

PAYS has debt and talks about further growth opportunities. So I would doubt it. GS

One would hope. For me the most important thing is a sign that cash collection through the historic business is improving. I think that is what Brin Sheridan was brought in to do and he has had enough time for there to be some evidence that this is capable of being cash generative. If that happens, the sp flies. GS

@Beamer If the sp goes up 10p every time you say something positive, please don't stop..... :-) GS

When I guess, I am wrong about 50% of the time.... and this is a guess. PAYS has no history of being a leaky ship when it comes to inside information. So I would doubt there is anything behind this other than boredom/lack of newsflow and maybe mm's encouraging the sp down for whatever reason. I think this is one of those volatility is not the same as risk thingies - until the known facts change I believe this share is still good for 500p+ without takeover action and as long as that happens sometime in the next 12 months I will be very happy. What occurs in the middle is irrelevant to me as I only trade when the price is ludicrously wrong. It is low, but not that bad.... so I am sitting tight. GL GS

This is mentioned again and again. It is just incorrect. Prior knowledge and disclosure of an RNS would be open to investigation. Since the name of the person selling a single share is a matter of record.... need I go further. When it happens it is simply coincidence. GS

@ Tomstone - Read my last note. "...I am of the opinion..." This is because the main shareholders in WELP go back a long way. Put it another way, if the upshot of the strategic review is to take XLM back into private ownership I am prepared to bet that CEO/WELP raise their funding to do so from the same place and vote in the same direction. You need to ask yourself why a series of outstanding trading updates have resulted in such poor sp performance.

@Tomstone - Yes (or maybe a little bit more than 5%). But I am of the opinion that he has sufficient influence within Webpals to effectively"control" their 40%+ stake also. GS

I am a fan of the company but I am less enamoured of the shares. I have a small holding but by any measure the sp has underperformed woefully when historic results are taken into account. Here (I think) is why: 1. The company is an Israeli business irrespective of tax domicile. There is market prejudice against Israeli businesses. 2. It is involved in gambling and needs to shed that image to help a re-rate 3. Too many shares are in management hands - the CEO owns/controls approx 50%. Until the above begins to change the sp will never fully reflect the value of the company. GS

Each to their own, but I would counsel patience. I have been in PAYS a long time and they have multiplied some of my money nearly 8x. I think there is room for plenty more. There was a pretty obvious spike and an opportunity to take profit around 430. But long term holders probably have their eye on the p/e at which PAYS is trading which is a deep discount to its peers. Profitability and cash flow are going in the right direction, dependence on China is diminishing fast, deregulation in the US will be helping widen the business and there is always the chance of a predator. My core holding is safely tucked away in my SIPP and ISA and I have used the peak and retrace to move my spread-bets from June to December contracts. While there will be volatility between here and then, I have no doubt the sp will be a good bit higher by the end of year barring global disasters. For any doubters, this company has a first rate management team. To me finding one and sticking with it is the alpha and omega of investing longer term. GLA GS

Anyone who has been here for any length of time will tell you that this share fluctuates wildly, but generally ends up higher than it was. Today is disappointing, but the sp will probably recover over the next few days. Bad news (other than rumour mongering) is unlikely given the fact that results were only announced a couple of days ago. GS

Quite likely you are correct, although the MM's are well capable of warehousing shares to force the price up on the basis that the trackers have no option but to buy. It has been done before and given the fundamentals for PAYS look pretty strong, it may happen here. Don't care too much as there is still upside here although if there is a strong run I may well reduce a bit, but only to keep my p/f in balance. GLA GS

Kamal Ahmed on the BBC site http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35549264

@wold - Maybe, but I am leaving my short in for now. The problem as I see it is that if the speed at which China is spending its reserves on supporting the RMB is seen to increase in a month's time, then the mother and father of all panics will break out. If that happens it will be before FTSE250 entry and is likely to decimate the sp here especially as PAYS is seen as being somewhat more dependent on China than other payment providers. So to have a bullish view here you have to believe that a Chinese elite that appears to be failing to manage its economy successfully at present will sort a colossal problem in the next few weeks ... GLA GS

Amazing what a difference a week makes. One of the hardest things is to know when to call it quits. I am incredibly lucky to have been in here for long enough to have realised profits along the way and still be up on what is left. I covered what remained of my position with a short yesterday. The more I look at the wide world and the news that is out there, the more worried I get that we will see sustained downward pressure on share prices. This has very little to do with how much money a company makes. It is about how long China can continue to prop up the RMB at its current level (max 8 months at current run rate - which will accelerate) and what will happens WHEN (not if) it devalues. Combine that with low/negative interest rates and stagnant major economies and entry into the FTSE 250 pales into insignificance. I have no doubt the sp here will recover in time, but I am very afraid that it may go a long way lower over the next few weeks/months before it does. Gold will rise in the meantime I suspect. The very best of luck to posters here - this is one of the best mannered and most informed bb's around and I have always found comments here valuable. But, as you may gather, I am effectively out. GS

:-) Enormously glad I sold a chunk first thing this morning. But not all unfortunately. Worried about China and think that this may get worse before it gets better. Generally macro stuff outweighs micro irrelevancies such as good company, undervalued, FTSE 250, takeover target etc etc... A couple of weeks ago I would have bought at this price all day long, but the sp has fallen about 3p whilst writing this and I think better safe than sorry. I will wait for things to have a little more clarity before buying back in . GL GS

Thanks Toast Let's hope the sp isn't (toast) by then... GS

Hi BB From my notes on ETO dates. See below. The November dates are for the Interims each year. The Jan (but usually Feb) dates are for the Trading Statement. Looks as if last year was an aberration and we should expect a statement in (about) 10 days (ish) 17th Nov 2015 -----> ?? 18th Nov 2014 ----> 27th Jan 2015 19th Nov 2013 ----> 13th Feb 2014 12th Nov 2012 ----> 14th Feb 2013 19th Nov 2011 ----> 13th Feb 2012 etc GS

Or someone knows something. I admit to being a bit jaundiced as I see my investment here standing at the same level as it was when I bought in 2012. But it looked good value then, the company is (I think) bigger and stronger now (it pays a dividend and diluted eps are up about 100% over the time I held), so if I was right then then I have to believe it is undervalued now. And it has an activist investor who just may have a point. GS

It varies, depending on their small print. AFAIK proper trackers are only allowed to buy/sell stocks that are actually in the index. There are a few quasi-trackers that have more flexibility but since their performance is supposed to exactly track the index, it cannot make sense to buy stuff that is not in it.... whether they know it will be there in three weeks or not. GS